Tuesday, April 21
Neil Parker
2015-04-21
Malkin’s struggles, Miller’s emergence and the Ducks’ flight
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First, thanks for the feedback and comments over the past two ramblings folks. Adjusting to a free-form editorial will take a few spins. I’m a fantasy analyst and Hot off the Wire news analysts for USA Today Fantasy Sports where brevity is paramount and word counts rule the roost.
Daily fantasy hockey has been my main focus over the past three years. I’m the co-owner and managing editor of The Fake Hockey, and penned the Beat the Cap column at RotoWire this season. There will likely be a daily vibe to my work, as I haven’t taken a day off from the DFS grind since Oct. 8.
All said, it was an honor to join this team, and the feedback is welcomed. Any particulars you would like touched on, just let me know. Add a family and ‘real’ job to the above work, and I don’t have time to be offended. It is genuinely appreciated.
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I was able to BBQ a burger and enjoy it before Pittsburgh recorded a shot on goal last night, and the game started before I did. Henrik Lundqvist instantly entered risky territory for daily players as a result. Saves are the quickest path to fantasy points and having a buffer to absorb a goal is important, especially when you’re invested in the most expensive tender. Shutouts are so rare that targeting the goalie likely to make 38 saves and allow three goals instead of a goalie likely to have a 20-save showing with a goal against is usually more beneficial.
Over the course of a season, these low-shot outcomes equal out, but under the microscope of daily play it can be a serious value kill. There is nothing worse then crossing your toes knowing a shutout is the only path to cashing. In weekly head-to-head formats this could also be killer, especially if one of your goalies is blown up in a game.
Lundqvist finished with a respectable 6.6 fantasy points last night, as the Penguins upped the intensity or ‘desperation level’ as No. 87 put it.
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Finally, the Winnipeg Jets put together a solid offensive game. As expected, though, Ondrej Pavelec wasn’t up for the challenge in his own cage. He allowed five goals on 31 shots. Pavelec isn’t a No. 1 goalie, and he never has been, but he deserves full credit for rising to the occasion and aiding the Jets secure a playoff berth.
Indirectly, trading Bobby Ryan enabled the Anaheim Ducks to add Ryan Kesler. It isn’t that cut and dry, obviously, but what appears pretty clear is Jakob Silfverberg and Kesler are stepping up as an excellent secondary scoring duo.
The one-two punch of Ryan Getzlaf and Kelser looks poised to take Anaheim deep. The smart money won’t be on the Calgary Flames or Vancouver Canucks, and the Central Division matchups are going to take a lot out of all four teams and then both teams. Vegas Insider has Anaheim listed at 6/1 Stanley Cup favorites right now.
It is also worth noting, Anaheim has solid depth. James Wisniewski and Jiri Sekac haven’t played yet, and Tomas Fleischmann has only played one game. They can absorb an injury or two without significant impact, outside of losing a star of course.
It was a great season for Winnipeg, and they have a lot of youngsters about to join the mix. Plus, Tyler Myers looks like the change of scene could allow him to return to being a force. They’ll have to address their goaltending, though. Unless Michael Hutchinson can take another step forward next season.
Yes, I’m writing Winnipeg off. Although, I never gave them much of a chance to begin with.
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Here is a quick injury recap.
Adam Henrique underwent wrist surgery, and he’ll begin rehab in four to six weeks when his cast is removed. Apparently, Henrique had been dealing with the injury since late December. What a mess the Devils are for fantasy purposes, though. Cory Schneider and Adam Larsson are the only likely candidates to land on any of my clubs.
Christian Ehrhoff hasn’t seen any progress in his condition, and it would appear unlikely he returns anytime soon. At this point, it is likely we don’t see Ehrhoff until the fall. After an injury-plagued season, he’ll come at a discount for the virtual leagues, but in the majority of formats he doesn’t move the needle enough to warrant a draft pick.
Eric Fehr is going to miss the next two games, and while it isn’t going to crush many playoff-pool hopes, he is a key minute eater for the Caps. Fehr played 16:26 minutes in their Game 2 win, and his 19 goals this season were tied for fourth on the team. He’ll be missed.
Justin Abdelkader is back for Game 3. The Red Wings have been outplayed by leaps and bounds, and they need Abdelkader’s physical presence in a big way. Perhaps he is the straw, but it isn’t a drink I’ll pay for Tuesday. Take a wait-and-see approach with No. 8 in red.
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Speaking of Adam Larsson, he had a nice 38-game run from early January to early April, which resulted in 20 points, 22 penalty minutes, 60 shots and a plus-8 rating with an average of 23:01 minutes per game. He has oodles of talent, but the surroundings are terrifying, at best.
He can potentially tip the scales in every fantasy category — as long as he maintains a plus-rating. Although, he would have to be viewed as a speculation grab in the majority of leagues. How many rearguards are ahead of him? How deep a league would it take before he is a viable option? Regardless, there is upside, especially since he’ll turn 23 in November 2015.
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Sticking in Scandinavia, Markus Hannikainen signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets. It difficult to envision he cracking the deep forward corps of Clumbus, but in keeper/dynasty formats, Hannikainen is worth monitoring or potentially a speculative add.
The subject was touched on in the fourm.