0.32 (T.D.)

0.33 (A.S.)

0.61 (T.D.)

1.56 (A.S.)

1.57 (T.D.)

0.87 (A.S.)

1.32 (T.D.)

1.37 (A.S.)

0.07 (T.D.)

0.00 (A.S.)

2011-12

0.53 (T.D.)

0.37 (A.S.)

0.57 (T.D.)

1.43 (A.S.)

1.45 (T.D.)

1.34 (A.S.)

1.69 (T.D.)

1.03 (A.S.)

0.07 (T.D.)

0.07 (A.S.)

Stralman holds a large edge in Hits, but one that's essentially mirrored by Daley in Blocked Shots, which means they'll give a fantasy squad comparable production in leagues that count both. And we can see their Shots and PP Points for 2014-15 were remarkably similar, and that Daley's PIM edge is small enough to be almost of no consequence. All in all, if your leagues count these five categories things are shaping up for both to offer similar overall production in them going forward, provided Daley's PP Ice Time doesn't continue its downward post-Kilngberg trend.

One area of note is Shots, as among the 19 defensemen who tallied 45 points or more in 2014-15, only one (Andrei Markov) had fewer than Stralman's 138 Shots (Daley's 82 game average would've projected as 136). Thus, even assuming Daley and Stralman didn't benefit from unsustainable luck in 2014-15 (we'll check on that next), it might be unrealistic to expect either to be able to post 45 points in 2015-16 or beyond, except in what would appear to be the unlikely event they up their Shots per game rate.

Luck-Based Metrics

What appears to stick out is Stralman's 63.6% 5×4 IPP for 2014-15. But not only did that put him just 26th out of the 76 d-men who played 100+ minutes of 5×4, but the 38th ranked d-man was 57.1%. Thus, Stralman was pretty close to average for someone in his shoes. Meanwhile, his 5×5 IPP ranked him 72nd (tied) out of the 120 rearguards who skated 1000+ minutes, with the 60th having a 33.3% IPP at 5×5. When considering that data, plus his OZ% and PDO that are both within the normal range, Stralman's production doesn't appear to have been greatly affected by good or bad luck in 2014-15.

And Daley appears to be in a similar boat regarding 2014-15; and unlike with Stralman, we can look upon Daley's 2011-12 and 2012-13 data for meaningful comparison. It reveals that back when he was scoring in the 22-27 point range he seemed to be plagued by quite a bit of bad luck holding down his production. For example, his 2011-12 IPP at 5×4 ranked him 77th out of the 86 blueliners who skated at least 100 minutes at 5×4, while his 2012-13 IPP at 5×5 put him 71st out of the 95 rearguards who had 500+ minutes at 5×5. Thus, it seems safe to say that based on luck Daley is more likely to see his points stay at 35+ than to dip back below 30 in an 82 game season.

Ownership and Injuries

In Yahoo leagues, both were drafted in similar average spots among defensemen – 50th for Daley, and 55th for Stralman. But at the end of 2014-15 Daley ranked 54th, while Stralman had moved up to 23rd. And their final ownership percentages reflected their ratings, as Daley was owned in just 21% of Yahoo leagues, compared to 58% for Stralman. These discrepancies seem too wide, considering Daley's points per game average put him 24th among defensemen who played 50+ games in 2014-15, compared to 38th for Stralman.

But Daley is trending in the wrong direction health-wise, as although he's never missed more than 15 games in a campaign, this season and last represented his two least healthy campaigns, with him not reaching the 70 game total in either one. Conversely, Stralman has been a model of excellent health over the past three seasons, missing just one total game while putting to rest concerns that were borne from his previous injury history.

Who Wins?

All things considered, I'd forecast both players to finish around 35 points next season. In short, Daley should lose some production due to the above-noted "Kilingberg effect," while Stralman should see his points diminish by the full season presence of other Lightning top six blueliners.

With that, I'll give the narrow win to Daley, based largely on perceived value vs. actual value.  In one year leagues for 2015-16, you should resist the urge to draft Stralman, as at best you might get what you pay for, whereas Daley should exceed expectations that would come with a 21% owned d-man. But also, since I don't see either player likely to match his point total from this season, there's also some logic in just letting someone else from your league grab them, leaving you to focus on other rearguards with more realistic upside and/or who should fare better in terms of cost vs. value.

In keepers, neither player makes a particularly attractive target due to their ages and their team's top prospects (including, of note, Anthony DeAngelo and Slater Koekkoek in Tampa Bay, and Julius Honka in Dallas). However, if you can land either one of them as a throw in, you could help plug a decent short term hole.