April 30, 2015

Michael Clifford

2015-04-30

Hart Trophy finalists named; Tampa Bay goes through; a look at the Western Conference second round. 

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As I am going to be doing for Thursdays throughout the summer, I'm going to open a thread for that day in the forums (typically around Noon ET) for readers to ask any fantasy hockey question, and I'll try to answer all of them (some answers are truly just speculation for now).

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The Hart Trophy finalists were named yesterday with John Tavares of the Islanders, Alex Ovechkin of the Capitals, and Carey Price of the Canadiens being named. I don't think there's much controversy in saying that Price seems to be the frontrunner for the trophy as he led the league in both overall save percentage and wins, and was second in five-on-five save percentage and shutouts (well, tied for second in shutouts). The Habs were 20th in the league in goals for per game and 23rd on the power play. That is to say, Price is the biggest reason the Habs not only won their division, but are set to start a second round series.

With a near-consensus winner, the "snubs" become less important. Does anyone really care if Sidney Crosby finishes 2nd or 5th in the Hart trophy voting? I think there is certainly a case to be made for him to be in the Tavares-Ovechkin mix, but it's pretty irrelevant in the larger picture. Just like last season was a slam-dunk for Crosby when he won the scoring race by 17 points (which is a huge margin for any post-Gretzky season), the same goes for Price this year.

The one thing I will say I'm interested in is to see what kind of voting Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk got. When the Wild acquired Dubnyk in the middle of January, the team was 18-19-5 (an 80-point pace), were riding a six-game losing streak, and gave up 29 goals in those six games. Minnesota would go 28-9-3 the rest of the way, with Dubnyk factoring in 27 of the 28 wins. He was only around for half a season, but as far as "value to a team" goes, the Dubnyk pulled the Wild out of the lottery abyss and they are now set to start their second round series with Chicago.

"What would this team look like without this player on the team" is a rule-of-thumb way to determine an MVP. Picture where the Wild would be without Dubnyk, and there should be visions of sand traps and ping pong balls.

Mats Zuccarello is a significant loss for this team in that it really chips away at that forward depth. Having Martin St. Louis on the third line allowed them to balance the forward attack, and now that's not necessarily the case. The Rangers bottom-six isn't depleted by any stretch, but at this time of the year, any margin is important.

The loss of Zuccarello also afford Kevin Hayes an opportunity. He came through this year in a big way with 45 points while playing just over 13 minutes a game. If he can provide good secondary scoring, that will help his case a lot for a bigger role moving forward.

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The Flames and Ducks series kicks off as the late game tomorrow night, as Calgary hopes to continue their Cinderella-ish season. One thing they'll have to change in a hurry is that the Flames have not won in Anaheim since before the 2004 lockout (seriously). The Flames will have to win at least one and go perfect at home to move on. That seems like a tall task against an Anaheim team that swept the Jets in the first round.

I'm really looking forward to the matchup of the first lines. These are two teams that rely quite a bit for production from their top forward trio, and seeing how they end up stacking against each other as the series moves on.

I think this is a series where goaltending wins the series, or more likely, whichever goaltender(s) don't lose games will be on the winning side. The games will probably have a "first to four" feel about them, so whichever goalie can keep their team in games, as opposed to having to out-right steal them like Carey Price or Henrik Lundqvist, will be the goalie on the series-winning team.

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The Minnesota-Chicago series starts on Friday night, and that is a series that should prove to be a lot of fun. The Wild have good forward depth up front, something that can match well with the forward depth of the Blackhawks, both defense corps have a Norris-calibre anchor with good support pieces, and it would seem the edge in net would go to Devan Dubnyk. Don't be surprised if this one goes seven games.

Jonathan Toews now has 25 points in 25 playoff games since the Blackhawks last won the Stanley Cup. If there's one decided edge I see the 'Hawks having, it's that Toews is superior to any centre that Minnesota has. Hockey is decided by whole teams, but Chicago needs to take advantage of its edges, which means Toews will probably have to be a big factor on the score-sheet in order for Chicago to get through.

Of course, Toews could have 10 points in 7 games but if the Chicago goaltending situation doesn't steady itself, it may be all for naught. The team is staying with Corey Crawford for Game 1, and the last thing they want to see is Minnesota scoring two goals on five shots in the first 10 minutes of Game 1. How he handles himself in that game will go a long way in whether or not Scott Darling appears again.

**Some stats take from Hockey Reference and War On Ice

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 02 - 19:04 CAR vs WSH
Apr 02 - 19:04 NYR vs MIN
Apr 02 - 19:04 TOR vs FLA
Apr 02 - 21:04 CHI vs COL
Apr 02 - 22:04 VAN vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LANE HUTSON MTL
PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS WSH
RYAN LEONARD WSH
LEO CARLSSON ANA
MATVEI MICHKOV PHI

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ELVIS MERZLIKINS CBJ
CALVIN PICKARD EDM
JEREMY SWAYMAN BOS
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
TRISTAN JARRY PIT

LINE COMBOS

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20.8 SEAN KURALY LUKE KUNIN ZACHARY ASTON-REESE
20.8 DMITRI VORONKOV SEAN MONAHAN KIRILL MARCHENKO
19.9 COLE SILLINGER MATHIEU OLIVIER JUSTIN DANFORTH

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