Looking Forward to David Pastrnak’s Sophomore Season

Derek Gibson

2015-05-01

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David Pastrnak had a very good, if brief, rookie campaign. What is in the cards for him next year?

Reliable. Good work along the boards. Consistent. These aren't words Boston Bruins' coach Claude Julien tosses around lightly, not even for a seven to eight year veteran player, let alone a skinny, 18 year-old kid from the Czech Republic. Yet those were some of the quotes from the bench boss to describe David Pastrnak's quick succession into the National Hockey League spotlight, from the 25^th overall pick in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, to a solid showing at the World Junior Championship, to playoff drive (that proved unsuccessful) with the parent club in Boston. Quite a rookie season for the kid they call "Pasta". So the question, amongst many, now from fantasy hockey owners is simple: What can we expect from Pastrnak in 2015-16?

Before you head into your draft come late-September and eagerly burn your seventh overall pick on #88, let's remember this: 41. That is the number of games Pastrnak has under his belt at the National Hockey League level. Expectations should very much be tempered, but there are also a lot of reasons to be excited about his sophomore campaign, and when compared to other high-profile First Rounder's from Boston over the years, some fantasy players will be VERY excited and eager to draft him next year:

Player	Rookie Year	Age	Games Played	Goals	Assists	Points	TOI/Game	G/60	Points/60
Phil Kessel	2006-07	18	67	12	18	30	13:30	0.8	1.99
Tyler Seguin	2010-11	18	74	11	11	22	12:21	.73	1.46
David Pastrnak	2014-15	18	41	10	17	27	14:12	1.07	2.83

As you can see, while receiving slightly more ice time than Kessel and Seguin, Pastrnak had almost more points than both of them despite playing in only half a season. And it wasn't like Pastrnak was padding his stats on the Power Play: of his 27 points, only three came on the man advantage. As a matter of fact, the rookie right winger ranked 11^th in the league with 2.54 points per 60 minutes played during Five on Five play, higher than Fantasy studs like Seguin (2.53), Corey Perry (2.30), and some guy named Crosby (2.30). Now I understand it's an extremely small sampling size, and most nights, Pastrnak and his linemates were not facing the opponent's top shutdown D-pairing, but it's still an impressive scoring rate for an inexperienced forward.

19.09%

46 KREJCI,DAVID – 17 LUCIC,MILAN – 88 PASTRNAK,DAVID

9.53%

23 KELLY,CHRIS – 88 PASTRNAK,DAVID – 34 SODERBERG,CARL

6.03%

37 BERGERON,PATRICE – 63 MARCHAND,BRAD – 88 PASTRNAK,DAVID

4.09%

46 KREJCI,DAVID – 63 MARCHAND,BRAD – 88 PASTRNAK,DAVID

Str	On Ice Line Combination	Points	%Total Points
EV	LUCIC,MILAN – PASTRNAK,DAVID – SPOONER,RYAN	11	40.74%
EV	KREJCI,DAVID – LUCIC,MILAN – PASTRNAK,DAVID	5	18.52%
EV	LUCIC,MILAN – PASTRNAK,DAVID – SODERBERG,CARL	3	11.11%
PP	LUCIC,MILAN – PASTRNAK,DAVID – SMITH,REILLY – SODERBERG,CARL	2	7.41%

Heading into 2015-16 will bring a multitude of question marks to not only Pastrnak's linemates, but the Bruins team as a whole: Having fired General Manager Peter Chiarelli, is Claude Julien next? Will Lucic and his expiring contract (at $6-million) be moved for cap relief? Will Krejci, at 29, be fully recovered from a slew of season-long, lower body injuries that limited him to only 47 games? And what becomes of Spooner with the likely departure of the Chris Kelly's, Gregory Campbell's, and Carl Sodeberg's of the world? Many questions, but there is no denying this: David Pastrnak is a potential dynamic offensive hockey player who can beat defenders one-on-one with his quickness and agility, and the Bruins are a much better offensive team when he gets top-six playing minutes. During the 2014-15 season, the Bruins outscored their opponents 3.029 to 1.571 when the Czech sensation was on the ice, and with 47.4% of the total face-offs taken in the offensive zone when he was on the ice, it's clear to see Julien's faith in 88's ability to forge offensive chances.

There are a few dark clouds, no question. The biggest is simple: He weighs 167 pounds, and stands at six feet even. To endure the rigors of an 82-game schedule, Pastrnak is going to have to potentially add 10-15 lbs. of muscle to his wiry frame. That should not be a problem, a good offseason training program with the Bruins' strength and conditioning staff will see to that (if you've ever watched an episode of Behind The B, you know he's in good hands). Next, where will he fit into the Bruins' top-six forwards? A summer of offseason activity should give fantasy owners a clearer picture by the time teams report to camp in mid-September. But there is a lot to like here, as Pastrnak should definitely see a healthy improvement on his 27 point rookie campaign. With increased ice time in both five-on-five and power play situations, Pastrnak has 25-30 goal potential next season. In keeper leagues, it should be a no-brainer to retain him on your roster moving forward. For standard yearly leagues, I've come up with a few comparables for Pastrnak with regards to draft position for his sophomore year:

Yahoo Public League Draft Results 2014-15

PLAYER	AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION
Gustav Nyquist	104
Filip Forsberg	118
Jonathan Drouin	127
Evgeny Kuznetsov	131
Tomas Hertl	136
Nikita Kucherov	143

This is a good blend of players who were going into their 1^st full seasons (Forsberg & Drouin) as compared to players in their sophomore campaigns (Nyquist, Hertl, & Kucherov). Personally, I like the Filip Forsberg comparison. At 6-1 and a solid 194 lbs, Filip is a full two years older than Pastrnak, but compares nicely with skating ability and shot (which is also from the right side). For his rookie 64 point season, Forsberg averaged 17:20 TOI/game, fired 237 shots on goal, and finished with 19 points on the man advantage. The opposite end of the spectrum? Tomas Hertl. We can devote an entirely separate article on his sophomore struggles, but just keep his name in the back of your mind come draft day.

After already having a taste of what life in the NHL is like, Pastrnak will return next season even more lethal. Put him in your sleeper queue, and look to target him anywhere from rounds nine to twelve in your fantasy draft.

**Editor’s Note: Please welcome Derek to the Dobber community. He will be writing these Frozen Forensics columns on Fridays moving forward. Great work, Derek!