Frozen Forensics: Vladimir Tarasenko is a top-10 talent

Derek Gibson

2015-05-15

VladimirTarasenko2

Is Vladimir Tarasenko worth a top-10 pick next fall?

Attention fantasy hockey fans: Despite the fact that in a year where the Art Ross was won with a mere 87 points (thanks to Jamie Benn's insane finish during Dallas' final game), and the Hart Trophy is going to a goalie who took on the role of Dominik Hasek circa late 1990's (Price, Carey). There are STILL some dynamic offensive hockey players, capable of bringing you out of your seat whenever the puck is on their stick. The buzz in the fantasy hockey world for the 2015-16 season is simple: Is Vladimir Tarasenko on the verge of super stardom? And, more importantly, is he a Top-10 fantasy draft pick? I'm here to tell you YES on both accounts!

At age 22 to start the season, 2014-15 was Tarasenko's coming out party, as he tallied more points this year (73) than he had in his previous two seasons combined (62). When he scored his 30^th goal of the season on February 21^st, he became the youngest Blues' player to do so since '92-'93 (Brendan Shanahan, pretty good company….). Yes, the St. Louis Blues are a balanced offensive hockey club who ranked fifth in the NHL in goals per game (2.91), who can roll three solid lines, but Tarasenko has become their game-changer. Looking at his career arc, I feel strongly that the best is yet to come for Tarasenko:

Season	Games Played	Goals	Assists	Points	+/-	Power Play Points	Shots on Goal	Time on Ice	PP TOI
'12-'13	38	8	11	19	1	5	75	13:25	1:47
'13-'14	64	21	22	43	20	7	136	15:10	1:40
'14-'15	77	37	36	73	27	18	264	17:37	2:38

As you can see, his numbers have consistently been on the upswing, but that I also put two very important figures in bold: shots on goal and power play time per game. Each season, Tarasenko has nearly doubled his shots on goal. Now, by no means am I saying he's ready for 510 some odd SOG's in 2015-'16 (the record is 550 by Phil Esposito in '70-'71), but his 264 ranked him 11^th in the NHL, and there's no reason he can't crack the top 10 and perhaps break 300. Couple that with a potential increase to his '14-'15 shooting percentage of 14.0% (which only ranked him 30^th in the NHL with players who scored 20+ goals), and The "Tarasenk-Show" could be a legitimate threat for the Rocket Richard Trophy.

EV	LEHTERA,JORI – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR	26	35.62%
PP	LEHTERA,JORI – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – STEEN,ALEXANDER – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR	6	8.22%
EV	LEHTERA,JORI – STEEN,ALEXANDER – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR	6	8.22%
EV	BACKES,DAVID – STEEN,ALEXANDER – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR	4	5.48%

From an enhanced statistical perspective, this line received 39.47% of their "starts" (faceoffs) in the offensive zone, as opposed to 26.97% in the defensive end. At an almost 13% difference, it's clear to see this is St Louis' primary offensive line (all apologies to Steen/Backes/Oshie).

Again, my goal of this piece is not to convince you that Vladimir Tarasenko is a tremendous offensive player that you must have on your fantasy team next year, you knew that. My point is to break it down, and convince you that he's worthy of a top ten pick come late-September/ early-October. Let's take a look at the Top Ten drafted in standard Yahoo! Leagues from 2014-'15:

Player Average Draft Pick Points/60

Sidney Crosby	1.2	3.28
Steven Stamkos	2.3	2.72
Corey Perry	3.5	2.72
Evgeni Malkin	4.6	3.21
Alex Ovechkin	5.3	2.95
Ryan Getzlaf	6.8	2.71
Tuukka Rask	7.3	N/A
Claude Giroux	8.7	2.63
John Tavares	9.6	3.04
Henrik Lundqvist	10.7	N/A

**** Points Per 60 Minutes Played ****:

Measures the number of points a player scores for every 60 minutes of time on ice. This statistic helps to better compare one player to another as it equalizes for time on ice where other statistics such as straight points or points per game can vary due to number of games played and the amount of time on ice differences between one player and another.

VLADIMIR TARASENKO POINTS/60: 3.23

So, a gifted offensive player on a Top-Five offensive team, who scores almost ¼ of his points on a Top-Five Power Play team, who's 3.23 points/60 minutes ranked sixth overall in the NHL, and he's entering his age 24 year?! Folks, I think we have a breakout player who can certainly challenge for both the Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies, and there is no doubt you should heavily consider selecting him in the top 10 come draft time. The stats don't lie.

This should get you excited: