2015-2016 Fantasy Outlook: Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets

Eric Daoust

2015-05-12

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What kind of fantasy value and production can the Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets have next year?

While many teams continue to battle for the Stanley Cup, more than half of the league has been eliminated and is in the offseason. Even though each team will undergo many changes this summer, we can still look at their rosters and get an indication of things to come next year. As we continue our march through the Eastern Conference starting from the bottom, today we will now take a look at the Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets.

Philadelphia Flyers

For the second time in three years, the Flyers failed to secure a playoff spot. This overall decline follows many years of wacky decision-making to find quick fixes which has left a roster with many holes and a lack of NHL-ready prospects to come to the rescue. The team has done better of late adding quality prospects to their stable but lack guys that can turn heads immediately.

One of the biggest surprises of the year was Jakub Voracek's breakout campaign where he had 81 points, just six shy of the league lead. While he produced at a similar rate during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, Voracek had never achieved more than 62 points over a full schedule. The big question is whether or not Voracek overachieved or reached a new level that will be sustained moving forward. After all, he did slow down significantly down the stretch with just 23 points in his final 32 games.

One typical red flag that are found when analyzing potential overachievers is shooting percentage. A player that finds the back of the net more often than he normally does given his shots on goal is bound to regress. Over time, his shooting percentage tends to return to the player's career average. In Voracek's case, there was no inflated shooting percentage. In fact, his 22 goals and 221 shots were nearly identical to his totals in 2013-14.

Voracek was more of a factor passing the puck as his 59 assists ranked second in the league. This is where he could suffer a bit of a setback next year as he has not been anything close to a premier playmaker in the past. Plus, there will be a new coach in Philadelphia next year and while he should be paired with Claude Giroux most of the time, it is not guaranteed that they will be tied at the hip.

With Giroux being seen universally as an elite player, you have to think that he will out-produce Voracek most years. With that said, do not be surprised if Voracek falls short of the 73 points Giroux posted this year. There is always the contract year factor to consider with Voracek, but repeating point-per-game numbers is very difficult in today's NHL.

The 2014-15 Blue Jackets that fell short of qualifying for the postseason can be summed up in one word: injuries. They led the league in man-games lost to injury which caused a lot of instability in the line combinations. They made a spirited run at the end for one of the wild card spots but ultimately fell short.

One of their most notable absences was captain Brandon Dubinsky who missed a total of 35 games with a variety of ailments. He was excellent when he did play, posting 36 points in 47 games, but this is the second time in three years that he has missed significant time to injury. Given that Dubinsky is 29 years old and plays a very physical brand of hockey (almost 2.5 hits per game since 2009-10), you have to wonder when these injuries become repetitive. This would be a tough blow to those that own him in multi-category leagues as Dubinsky has been one of the very best in most of those types of leagues.

Boone Jenner was another significant player to be hit by the injury bug. The 21-year-old winger was impressive when he was in the linup, totaling 17 points in 31 games. Even more impressive is that his nine goals (on pace for 24 goals over 82 games) came with a shooting percentage of just 11 percent. Next year barring further injury he should be able to clear the 40-point mark for the first time in his career with ease.

One of the biggest benefactors of the rash of injuries was Nick Foligno who was relied upon heavily to produce offense while in a contract year. He started the year on fire and earned a six-year, $33-million contract. Even though there were many signs that he was producing way over his head he never really did slow down. While his shooting percentage (17 percent) was obviously high, it was just a bit higher than last year's 16.2 percent. It would be unreasonable to expect many more 73-point years for Foligno moving forward but he has clearly thrived with more responsibility and the contract will ensure that he continues to get prime opportunities.

As we have seen, things are looking up for the Blue Jackets. They have a bright future including 20-year-old forward Marko Dano who was excellent in 35 games with Columbus posting 21 points. Even more interesting is that his eight goals were scored on 84 shots, hinting that he could improve upon his already-impressive numbers if he is able to continue shooting this frequently. Look for Dano to continue where he left off in his first full NHL campaign even if his minutes are limited.

On defense, the trade of James Wisniewski to the Ducks opened the door for David Savard to take on a larger role. He responded in a big way with 10 points in his final 13 contests for a total of 36 points and an average of 23 minutes per outing. He will likely not out-produce Jack Johnson but is nonetheless a threat to clear 40 points while offering extra value to those in multi-category leagues as evidenced by his 71 minutes in the sin bin and 195 hits.

In goal, Sergei Bobrovsky continues to be a strong fantasy contributor as he hit the 30-win mark for the second consecutive year. Based on the last two years he appears to be a .920 goalie which is a strong number that is not far from the league's elite net-minders. With that said, look for his shot total to drop with the team improving and hopefully staying healthy. This will help bring down his GAA. Barring injury there is no reason not to assume another 30-win campaign for Bobrovsky in 2015-16 given the quality of the group in front of him.

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