Tuesday, June 2

Neil Parker

2015-06-02

It’s way too early to write off the Tampa Bay Lightning…

Everyone has already written off the Tampa Bay Lightning, so obviously, I’m cheering for them even more now. I’m a loyal fan to my teams, but after that, it’s all about fleeting alliances.

There are all kinds of Gandhi quotes on walls and face-twitter posts everywhere, but my favorite is rather obscure.

“I have never made a fetish of consistency.”

Throughout Game 7 between the Lightning and New York Rangers there was an inner turmoil, as financially a Rangers win was preferred. But the Lightning were the team I wanted to win in my heart, guts, or whatever innards argue with your brain.

So it is time to stand behind a new team and feign fandom. At least this one is exciting.

Being willing to change course is particular important to us fake sports types. I’m the first to admit to being persuaded by my own favoritism. After all, I’m a Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman homer, with Jonathan Toews, Brandon Saad and Corey Crawford also personal favorites.

1. Ben Bishop is the best goalie remaining

Over 20 games, he sits with a .920 save percentage, 2.15 goals-against average and three shutouts. Plus, he has allowed two goals or fewer in 14 of 20 games, and more than a trio just three times.

Bishop also hasn’t allowed more than two goals in a road game, including back-to-back shutouts against the New York Rangers to finish them off. His .947 save percentage on the road is more than impressive.

The home struggles are mildly worrisome, then, but if Bishop can return to his regular season form on home ice, look out. He finished the regular season with a 27-6-1 record, a .925 save percentage and a 2.15 goals-against average on home ice.

2. Tampa Bay can win 2-1 or 6-5

Sure, the Blackhawks are similar, and they’ve won textbook games and high-scoring affairs. But, have they faced as potent an offensive team as the Lightning yet?

Tampa Bay was the highest scoring team in the regular season, and they currently boast an impressive 22.2 percent power play. They have two No. 1 lines, and their shut-down defense pair — Hedman and Anton Stralman — can also frequent the score sheet.

Alex Killorn has emerged as a force, and he leads the team in ice time per game. Add Stanley Cup winner to Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov, and it is reasonable to say, Chicago has potentially met their match.

Ryan Callahan, Jason Garrison and Nikita Nestrov aren’t exactly foreign to the score sheet, either, so this is a deep Lightning attack. It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Matt Carle, Brian Boyle and Cedric Paquette chip in, too.

3. Tampa Bay is favored to win Game 1

The Bolts boast a 1.79 and -1.25 line at Pinnacle Sports and Vegas Insiders, respectively. So, at this point you insert the line about the percentage of teams who win Game 1 go onto win the Stanley Cup or series. Without looking up those numbers, it also means Chicago has to win four of six against Tampa Bay, and that will be difficult.

It is interesting then, that Vegas expects Tampa Bay to win Game 1 only to lose the series. Perhaps, one of the lines is a trap. It will be worth checking the lines again Wednesday, to see if the sharps move them at all.

Unfortunately, Vegas isn’t always right, so for the same reason the Lightning can win the series via a Game 1 victory, Chicago can, too. Tampa Bay, and Chicago for that matter, have both shown incredible resolve throughout these playoffs and fought back in series deficits. So, while Game 1 might not prove to be as important as I’m pegging, a Tampa Bay loss might be too much to overcome.

Who is with me on the Tampa upset?

After all, who doesn’t like an underdog?