0.09 (M.Z.)

0.07 (M.G)

3.78 (M.Z.)

3.59 (M.G)

We can see that Zibanejad's Hits have been consistently superb for a playmaker, and his FOW jumped quite a bit last season, although we'll have to check if the added FOW also coincided with more overall responsibility (and, with that, a worse Offensive Zone Starting %). But what's nice is his 7+ FOW makes his dual position eligibility (C and RW) even more valuable in leagues with FOW as a category. Also, he responded to the increase in his PP Ice Time with a 50% jump in PP Point output, making it more likely that he'd see his PP Ice Time hold steady or even increase in 2015-16, rather than be dialed back like what happened to Granlund from 2013-14 to 2014-15.

One trouble area for Zibanejad is his Shots, which dipped to the lowest per game average of his career. If he can't get them back above two per game, then he might have a hard time topping 60 points down the road, as only seven of the 50 forwards who tallied 60+ points last season averaged fewer than two Shots per game.

Granlund's FOW, Hits, PIM and Blocked Shots have held steady over the past two seasons, with the latter two being quite respectable for a pass-first center. But he saw dips in key offense-influencing categories of Shots and PP Points, with the latter being cut nearly in half despite only a 15% decrease in PP Ice Time. And of the seven forwards who tallied 60+ points despite not firing 2+ SOG per game in 2014-15, only two (Mike Ribeiro, Henrik Sedin) averaged fewer than Granlund's 1.45 per contest.

Luck-Based Metrics

Granlund's 5×4 IPP for 2012-13 isn't charted, as he didn't meet the 50+ minute minimum.

Most glaring for Granlund is his decrease in 5×5 IPP from 85.7% and 84.8% in his first two seasons, to 58.0% in 2014-15. This drop can be explained in part by the increase in quality of his linemates, as reflected in his Frozen Pool data below:

2014-15

2013-14

In short, while Granlund had been driving the offense and scoring in 2012-13 and 2013-14 when saddled with sometimes centering the likes of Dany Heatley and Nino Niederreiter, in 2014-15 he was playing with the big boys, and thus far has taken a backseat in scoring. The good news is the average 5×5 IPP of Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, and Jason Pominville in 2014-15 was 74.6; and even if Granlund's IPP had been just 70% at 5×5 last season rather than 58.0%, that would've meant seven additional points, and with that a jump to 46 points in 68 games (i.e., a 55 point scoring pace). Therefore, if Granlund continues to play with these top guys and luck smiles just a bit more on him, 50 points should be realistically achievable.

The wrinkle is that Granlund's OZ% jumped from 52.8% to 59.8% last season, which might not be sustainable. Even still, since he was able to produce better in 2013-14 versus 2014-15 while having a 52.8% OZ%, that means he should be able to tolerate a dip from 59.8% OZ% next season without an accompanying drop in production.

Value and likely cost for 2015-16

For 2014-15 Yahoo leagues, Granlund was eligible only as a center, while as noted above Zibanejad had C and RW eligibility. On average, Granlund was drafted 47th among centers in 2014-15 on Yahoo, while Zibanejad wasn't among the top 80 at either C or RW.

When factoring in their 2014-15 performances, and where other players were drafted for 2014-15 fantasy leagues, look for Zibanejad to be selected for 2015-16 league just above the 47th spot where Granlund was being tabbed in 2014-15, while Granlund likely will slip outside of the top 50 given his center only eligibility and perception in the minds of many poolies that he took a step back last season.

Who Wins?

What we know is, for each player there is a proven center on his team getting more Ice Time – Kyle Turris in Ottawa and Mikko Koivu in Minnesota. Turris looks to be coming into his own as a top pivot, posting 122 points in the past two seasons and not turning 26 until this summer, while Koivu is now 32 and not only three full seasons removed from his last 60+ point campaign but also coming off a season where, for the first time in his NHL career, he posted under 50 points while playing 65+ games.

On paper, that would make it seem like Granlund has the clearer path toward truly being the top pivot for his squad, and, with that, to see his production jump significantly. But we need to remember that Koivu's decline in Ice Time is already well underway, and, in 2014-15, resulted in Granlund playing alongside the most talented Wild wingers, with slightly poorer overall production and only a modest increase in his own Total Ice Time alongside a PP Ice Time decrease.

Meanwhile, Zibanejad has already demonstrated that he can produce despite the presence of Turris; and with the emergence of Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, Ottawa looks to have more than enough talent to allow for two 60+ point centers, ala what we're seeing with the Lightning, Sharks, and Rangers, to name just a few teams.

In the end, my sense is both players should be a virtual lock to post 50+ points per season going forward, but that Granlund might end up being more of a David Desharnais type – that is, someone who gets overshadowed and outpointed by his winger(s) and who just might have a ceiling of 55-60 points. In contrast, Zibanejad has shown more goal scoring ability and plays for a team with arguably better top six depth (assuming that Stone and Hoffman – both also RFAs – are re-signed as well), and thus I see him as having a better shot not only of posting 60+ points on a regular basis, but perhaps even 70+ points at some point before the decade is over.