0.11 (M.J.)

2011-12

0.63 (B.S.)

0.14 (M.J.)

2.52 (B.S.)

0.76 (M.J.)

0.48 (B.S.)

0.35 (M.J.)

1.79 (B.S.)

1.48 (M.J.)

0.09 (B.S.)

0.10 (M.J.)

Here we see a remarkably consistent high (Schenn's impressive output in Hits) and low (Johansson's Lady Byng-like PIM totals), coupled with numbers for both that have bounced around. Clearly Johansson won't be winning anyone their multi-cat league title, although for what it's worth he did trend upward in Hits and Shots for 2014-15. Schenn isn't a huge producer in categories other than Hits, although he can be counted upon for about one PIM and one Blocked Shot per every two games or so, both of which are well more than Johansson produces.

One key is Schenn responded to a big bump in PP Ice Time with a nice leap in production, whereas Johansson's year-to-year PP production waned despite his PP Ice Time essentially holding steady. Couple that with Kuznetsov and Burakovsky being ready to assume larger roles (including on the PP) and the continued presence of front-of-the-net staple Troy Brouwer, and Johansson's time with the man advantage could be poised to drop considerably in 2015-16.

Luck-Based Metrics

Each player had a jump in OZ% this past season. It was less than a 10% increase for Schenn, so even if it gets dialed back the effect shouldn't be too negative. On the other hand, Johansson's OZ% spiked by over 10%, yet his point totals stayed essentially the same as 2013-14 despite him having nearly identical combined IPP numbers both seasons (109.6 in 2014-15, 111.3 in 2013-14). Not good.

Beyond that, if we look at Johansson's 2012-13 season (when he produced at a career high 53 point pace), he posted his highest PDO, a 100% 5×4 IPP, and a Personal Shooting % that was above his 12.8% career average. The only saving grace was he tallied a mere four points a 5×4 and produced just 40 Shots that season, so a 50% IPP at 5×4 and a 12.8% Personal Shooting % would've meant only a drop of three points. But still – there's not a lot here to give poolies reason to hope – let alone expect – Johansson to climb above his familiar 44-47 point scoring rate going forward.

As for Schenn, he's had a very consistent Personal Shooting %, plus steady combined IPPs over the past three seasons. Plus his PDO has been within the 970-1030 "normal" range for all four seasons. Factoring in this data with his increasing Ice Time and production, 50 points could perhaps be within reach for Schenn in 2015-16 if his OZ% holds steady

Ownership/Value and Remaining Schedule

Both players were C and LW eligible in Yahoo leagues for 2014-15, although with both generating fewer than 100 FOW for the season (86 for Schenn, only seven for Johansson), pretty much the only benefit they give you with C eligibility is roster flexibility. Thus, I'll consider their value versus other LWs.

Schenn ended the season being owned in basically double the number (36% vs. 17%) of Yahoo leagues as Johansson. Initially, Schenn was drafted as the 98th LW on average, with Johansson not landing in the top 100. Each proved to be a cost vs. value bargain, with Schenn finishing ranked as the 42nd LW and Johansson 48th.

It was somewhat surprising to see them ranked this closely at the end of the season, given Schenn's added value in multi-cat leagues. One thing this signifies is that both will likely be drafted at similar spots for 2015-16.

Who Wins?

In Johansson we have a player who has yet to take the "next step"; and that was when the Caps didn't have young up-and-comers like Kuznetsov and Burakovsky primed to enter the top six. We know those two won't displace Backstrom and Ovi, nor – likely – bigger body forwards Brouwer and (if re-signed) Ward. Plus, there's upstart Tom Wilson to contend with. That leaves Johansson more vulnerable than ever for a trip to the bottom six and perhaps PP2 Ice Time, if even that. From the looks of things, Johansson might have a difficult time sustaining his 44-47 point scoring pattern, let alone finding a way to improve upon it.

With Schenn, there's been the nice trend of increasing Ice Time and production. But he's had ample time to skate alongside Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek on Philly's top line, yet never managed to stick there. And with the team not employing a venerable second line, there could be a ceiling on Schenn's production – one which he might be reaching very soon, if not already.

All things considered, I wouldn't recommend drafting either of these players for 2014-15 one year leagues, as there's a good chance you won't get proper value in view of the cost they'll take to obtain. But if I had to choose one, it would be Schenn, since he has a better chance for 50+ production.

If you have Johansson in a keeper league, pay close attention to the RFA deal he signs. If it's for more than two years, then that should allay some concerns, as it means the Caps still see him fitting within the top six. But if it's only a two year bridge deal, then there's a good chance he ends up on the outside looking in, and thus you should sell once he hits a hot stretch. Meanwhile, it makes sense to hold Schenn, as you probably won't get a fair price for him at this time, except perhaps from someone desperate for a forward who can score a decent amount while also giving a team tons of Hits. By all means if someone blows you away with an offer for Schenn you should take it. Otherwise, best to hold for a year and see what deal he signs in 2016-17, when he'll be in a similar boat as Johansson is now.