June 16 2015

The short-term fantasy outlook for Beaulieu; Thoughts on Grigorenko, Dubnyk and more…

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As Gooding touched upon yesterday, Buffalo prospect Mikhail Grigorenko is reportedly considering a return to the KHL (CSKA).  Not exactly a shocking development, given that all Russian prospects carry a ‘flight’ risk to some extent. And in the case of Grigorenko, he was handled very poorly during his first two seasons with the club. That did improve in 2014-15, but perhaps not enough to keep him happy. Allowed to play in the AHL, he flourished there – tallying 14 points in the last 12 games he played at that level. He was starting to come into his own at the North American pro level 

(Translated link here). 

Bob McKenzie also reports this, and adds that with Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Zemgus Girgensons locked in as the future top three centers, Grigorenko may not be eager to sign a two-way contract. If he can hang in there, he’ll be groomed as a winger. But if I was a betting man, I’d put my money on his signing in the KHL. Then maybe he makes a triumphant return in a few years (when fantasy owners have long forgotten him).

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Anders Nilsson, one of the best goalies in the KHL, has not yet signed a contract with Ak Bars – and the team is reportedly moving on to another goalie option. The report indicates that he may sign with Locomotive, but he may give the NHL another crack if Chicago can clear some of their goalie logjam. He was acquired in the Nick Leddy deal and I wouldn’t be surprised if another NHL team trades for him the way Calgary traded for Karri Ramo a number of years ago. Ramo was the KHL’s top goalie at the time and the Flames scooped him from Tampa. Get the lowdown on Nilsson here.

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Gooding also discussed Manchester’s Calder Cup win on Saturday. The Los Angeles affiliate won their first ever AHL title and prospect Jordan Weal was the MVP. Weal is one of just under 500 prospects who are profiled in the Fantasy Prospects Report – and here is his excerpt:

“Since Weal was drafted by Los Angeles in 2010, he’s been defying doubters. It was once suggested that his WHL dominance was a product of being Jordan Eberle‘s linemate. The then-Regina Pats forward proceeded to pile up 212 points sans Eberle over the next two years. Then, Weal’s 5-9 frame was supposed to stunt his professional development. He’s finished in the top-five in AHL scoring in consecutive seasons. Now, he’s due his shot at the bigs—the Kings won’t risk exposing the 23-year-old to waivers this fall. The quick, gritty offensive dynamo’s next obstacle is an organization that hasn’t exactly favored smallish, offensively-minded centermen lately (see Loktionov, Andrei and Vey, Linden). An immediate change of scenery wouldn’t be surprising, especially considering the star pivots already manning LA’s top-six. Los Angeles might try him at wing.

Upside – Mike Ribeiro (25-45-70+, 50 PIM)

3YP – (20-25-45, 35 PIM)

Certainty (NHLer; Upside) – 70%, 20%

Expected arrival – This fall.

DobberHockey Draft Advice – A decent final-round option.”

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Glean from this what you will, but Nikita Kucherov is reportedly feeling better and is not ruled out for Game 6. By now we all know that the only “report” that we can believe is the one from the play-by-play guy saying that he’s on the ice to start his first shift. In the event that he doesn’t go, I like Namestnikov in that spot. He was a fine replacement for both Palat and Johnson when each of them were hurt at different points of the season.

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The draft is just 11 days away – you can read up on the draft eligible players right here in our special section.

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On the weekend, the Habs managed to sign their young defenseman Nathan Beaulieu to a bridge contract at a cheap price. Two years, $1 million per. In an era where young players with similar upside are signing their bridge deals for north of $2 million per year, it’s refreshing to see one sign on the dotted line without too much hassle or threat of a camp holdout. Beaulieu led all Montreal defensemen in offensive zone starts (as a percentage) last season. The problem was that as a team the Habs started too many shifts in the defensive zone. In fact, only Subban and Beaulieu (50.2%) saw an offensive zone start percentage north of 50. But the conclusion you can draw from this is that he is being used on offensive situations. So as his ice time increases, the points are going to come. And they’ll come even faster when he starts getting the PP time. With Petry and Markov re-signed, that probably won’t happen next season. But I could see him starting to cannibalize Markov’s power-play time in 2016-17. I can see 25 points in the season ahead for Beaulieu strictly from added ES ice time, and then another 10 in 2016-17 as his PP time starts inching upwards. That would also be his contract year, so perhaps 10 is under-selling him…

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Devan Dubnyk‘s talks with the Wild aren’t moving along. Dubnyk will probably find himself a free agent come July 1 and to me he’s the best goalie on the market (yes, over Niemi). So who needs a goalie? The Wild do, that’s for sure. They’ll have to step up. But the problem is – they have a recent history of trusting too much money (and/or term) to goalies who have little in the way of a resume (Harding, Kuemper) or are fading (Backstrom). So if Dubnyk is looking for something long term – say four years at $4 million per season – and the Wild give it to him, what happens if he stumbles? They’ll be buying out Backstrom this summer and Harding is off the books, but I still think the Wild are extremely gun-shy about goalie contracts right now. San Jose, Buffalo and even Edmonton would probably be happy to pay that kind of money.

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Carolina would have to be nuts to start negotiating Cam Ward‘s next contract. Barring a superstar season (highly doubtful), they’ll regret the new Ward contract before it even kicks in.

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Some solid Prospects Ramblings by Zach Hopkins can be found here.

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Calder Cup highlights here – LA’s top prospect Adrian Kempe with a pair of goals (Weal sets up the first one):