June 18, 2015
Michael Clifford
2015-06-18
I will be opening a thread in the Dobber Forums today around lunchtime as usual on Thursdays. This will be a thread to the readers to ask any fantasy, or non-fantasy, hockey question that pops up. There are still a few questions to get to from last week, and I'll open with those this week. Feel free to come by and post a query or jump in on a conversation.
Speaking of the Forums, check out the thread for Glorybe’s Fantasy Workshop. It’s a thread that includes an opportunity for Dobber readers to get a very cool fantasy logo fully-customized for free. It’s a thank you from Glorybe, and did we mention it’s a fully-customized logo for free?
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Of course, congratulations to the Chicago Blackhawks (and their fans) on their third Stanley Cup in the past six seasons. I think the Final plays out a bit differently if Tyler Johnson has two fully functional arms, but Chicago still kept Steven Stamkos very much in check. It was a great run from the start of the playoffs against Nashville through to the very end.
As far as the cap era is concerned, this is a wildly successful franchise that has become the new model. It's easy to say, "oh sure just draft a Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane" but it's so much more than that.
Teams need talent to win, that's nothing new. What the Blackhawks did, though, was really build around their core players. Aside from the two named and Duncan Keith, Chicago has kept adding talent either through trades, free agency, or the Entry Draft. If it's trading for Andrew Ladd several years ago before their first Cup, luring Marian Hossa as a highly-coveted free agent years ago, drafting Brandon Saad or Teuvo Teravainen, or anything else in between, they never stopped adding talent. They had to get rid (or let go) of talent too (names like Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien, Troy Brouwer, Nick Leddy, and Michael Frolik are just a few that come to mind), but an organizational commitment to always re-stocking has seemed staunch. Heck, they turned Dave Bolland into three draft picks six days after he scored a Cup-clinching goal for the team in 2013. Dobber wrote about Chicago's success yesterday (and well before that, too).
That kind of commitment by the organization – send out still useful yet pricey players for younger players or draft picks, and make tough decisions on free agents in order to continue building around cornerstones – is useless without a good coach. Whatever the opinion is on Joel Quenneville, the guy doesn't seem to be getting "tuned out" as is often cited when players and coaches spend a lot of time together. He's getting the most out of all his players seemingly every year, and he got them to peak at the right time of the season (having Patrick Kane return five weeks early from injury helps, too).
The most goals per team per game post-2005 lockout came in the season immediately following said lockout, 2005-2006. Per Hockey Reference, teams scored 3.08 goals per team per game that year. That season saw 30 defencemen crack 40 points. The season that just passed was tied for the second-lowest in goals per team per game at 2.73. There were 27 defencemen that had at least 40 points last year. That mark of 2.73 goals tied with 2011-2012, and that year there were just 19 defencemen who cracked that 40-point plateau.
That is to say, despite an exact same amount of goals per game, the number of defencemen posting what was once a coveted number for blue liners increased by 42-percent, and the total number of d-men was closer to 2005-2006 than 2011-2012.
That represents a changing role of defencemen in hockey. It's no shock to anyone that's watched hockey evolve at the NHL level that the "stay-at-home" defenceman is become a rarity. The Douglas Murray/Tim Gleason-type players aren't finding as many jobs, and defencemen that have offensive talent are becoming more important.
I don't mean offensive in Erik Karlsson terms. What teams are realizing is that it's not sufficient anymore for a defenceman to simply be able to pin a body in the corner and flip a puck into the neutral zone. Now, a defenceman has to tie up the first man in, dig for a puck, find an open teammate to pass to, and then get in a position to support the transition from defence to offence, from the defensive zone, into the neutral zone, and then in the offensive zone.
Guys like Nick Leddy and Anton Stralman, though not physically imposing, are very effective defencemen because they not only prevent the other team's offence, they are adept at starting the attack as well. Tampa Bay notoriously sent their d-men on the attack, or deep into the zone on a pinch, all season and into the playoffs.
Teams want possession, and possession doesn't come by consistently blocking shots and going glass and out, giving the puck to the other team in the neutral zone. Successful teams like Chicago, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Boston will make two, three, four or more passes to get out of the zone with control of the puck. That gets the defence more involved, which is partly why we're seeing more defencemen with more points.
This is relevant for fantasy because with more defencemen producing at a reasonably high rate, the less valuable the elite become. It's less necessary to spend that second or third round pick on Shea Weber or Drew Doughty because guys like Justin Faulk and John Carlson can be had a few rounds later and produce the same thing. (Not saying they will next year, but guys like Tyson Barrie and Roman Josi were good examples of this from this past season).
It changes things more in points-only leagues because they do all become so similar. Rotisserie leagues are a bit different because guys like Subban, Weber, Byfuglien, and Burns can all bring peripheral stats that guys like Barrie and Suter do not. When it comes to point leagues, though, the way NHL teams run their offence and defence has changed the way that defencemen should be approached in fantasy drafts next season. Something to keep in mind for you points-only owners out there.