June 26, 2015

Michael Clifford

2015-06-26

The NHL Draft is today, Ryan O'Reilly's future, and Chris Stewart's fantasy relevance.

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Live chat and coverage of the draft here: http://prospects.dobbersports.com/Feature-Story/live-draft-chat-day-1

 

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The 2015 NHL Entry Draft has finally arrived, which means the new era of the Oilers is about to start (and Buffalo too, guys). There will be enough of that in the coming days, weeks, and months before next season. There is a lot of time to talk about nothing as October approaches.

One aspect I wanted to talk about as it relates to fantasy was an interesting little research piece done by Andi D. over at the Mile High Hockey blog from SB Nation a couple of years ago. It looked at top-10 picks that were defencemen from 2003-2012, and more specifically, the bust rates. I encourage the reader to look at that to see what the names are.

There were 33 defencemen in the sample, and they removed the nine players that hadn't appeared in an NHL game yet to get to 24 total. I didn't include them because I'm not sure about all of them, so I'm going to just not consider them.

Including the four that have appeared in the NHL from the two drafts since (Aaron Ekblad, Seth Jones, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Darnell Nurse), that's a total of 28. They found up to 17 top-4 defencemen (though it's more like 15 with how things have changed since), and by my count, 10 top pair defencemen. So of the 28, that's 10 top true top pairing d-men (in my opinion anyway).

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The big news of the day was a combination of two things.

First was that apparently Colorado forward Ryan O'Reilly was asking for $60-million for his next contract. He still has a year left at a $6-million cap hit. At that asking price, it's a $7.5M average annual value.

The second piece to that was that Colorado traded a sixth round pick two years down the road to Boston for the rights to pending UFA Carl Soderberg. That seems like an insurance play for the Avalanche, should the likely happen and O'Reilly get traded.

It was an interesting debate to watch on Twitter today from all facets of the NHL world as to what exactly Ryan O'Reilly is. Is he a true number-1 centre? His possession numbers are excellent, he's a very good two-way player, and is established at about a 60-point player at least for now.

What is a number-1 centre, though?

It's not an objective question, to a degree. Yes, there are technically 30 number-1 centres in the NHL. Are they all guys a general manager wants as their number-1 centre? No need to look further than a few of Canada's teams for that answer.

So is Ryan O'Reilly one of those "he's a Tomas Plekanec" first line centre, or is he a "that's the next Anze Kopitar" first line centre? I think there would be defenders on both sides. Though to be fair, with that asking price, he’s asking to be paid more like Krejci than Toews.

O'Reilly has a better points per 60 minutes over the last two years (1.93) than Kopitar (1.89) or Henrik Sedin (1.82). It was also worse than David Backes (2.09) and teammate Nathan MacKinnon (2.05). He was 41st in that regard out of 101 forwards with at least 2000 minutes in that span.

O'Reilly is very good, but is he really a number-1 or a guy who can play in the number-1 slot? Also, the Avalanche have Matt Duchene signed for four more years, and MacKinnon needs a new contract (and a hefty raise) sometime next year. In a cap league at this level, teams can't pay at least $6-million each, and like $22-$23M total, to three centres. That would happen if they re-sign O'Reilly.

Where he goes, who knows. Honestly, I would like to see Buffalo make a play. That would give them that established centre they need. They have the space, and at 24-years-old, could be part of the growth of that team for years.

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Mark Stone (three years, $10.5M total) and Mika Zibanejad (two years, $5.25M) were re-signed by Ottawa. Both good signings, both should contribute to the team.

All I wanted to say was I was hoping Zibanejad would have been a longer-term deal. He has played a lot of hard minutes for the team, and has done well. This is a case where they probably could have gotten the majority of his twenties for a good cap hit and didn't get it done. Instead, he'll be due more in two years.

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From a fantasy angle, I'm interested to see what happens to Chris Stewart. It seems like the money will be there for him to re-sign in Minnesota should Devan Dubnyk not return, but as Chris Pudsey pointed out, he earned a new deal.

Minnesota is a talented team up front, and should be able to score next year. With a full training camp with his teammates, Stewart may fit into the Wild depending on how much he is asking. He did manage 11 points (with 25 penalty minutes!) in 20 games with the team after being traded from Buffalo.

If Stewart can get 15-16 minutes a game with power play time, on that team, he could be a valuable roto commodity next year. He was once a coveted power forward in the fantasy game a few years ago, and maybe he never gets to the upper echelon, but could still be streakily productive for an owner. That's a situation to keep an eye on because Stewart may make a sensible late round stash come draft season.

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