Sunday, June 28, 2015

Dougie Hamilton fallout, draft analysis, goalies on the move, and more…

There was a ton of talk on Friday as to why the Bruins would allow Dougie Hamilton to get away. I'll get into what I think was the Bruins' rationale here in a moment, but I don't think enough is being discussed on the Calgary side of things.

I have no argument with Clifford’s or Parker’s analysis about Hamilton's fantasy value not increasing with a move to Calgary. After all, that is now a very deep defense in Calgary, and Hamilton would appear to be projected for second-pairing minutes with the Flames.

On the Flames' defense, you now have Hamilton, Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie, Dennis Wideman, and Kris Russell all vying for top-4 minutes (assuming another move is not in the works in Calgary). Potentially, you have a minute-munching defenseman like Russell (nearly 24 minutes last season) who could move down to the bottom pairing. That is huge because Russell set the single-season shot blocking record last season with 274, and we know how many fantasy leagues now count blocked shots.

Russell was impressive in the playoffs last season, particularly in the Flames' first-round series against Vancouver. So maybe it's TJ Brodie who moves down the ladder. You may remember that Brodie was on fire during the first half of last season (21 points in his first 25 games), but tailed off dramatically after that.

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As for my theory about what went on in Boston yesterday, the biggest issue entering the day for the Bruins was the salary cap. I believe Cam Neely was pushing hard to move Lucic, with his hometown team the Canucks being one of the teams calling about him (despite their own salary cap issues).

When that wasn't happening as quickly as the Bruins wanted, perhaps that's when the vultures moved in and started making the panicked Bruins offers on Hamilton, who was becoming more vulnerable to getting offer sheeted. And I agree with Ramblings commentor donpaulo yesterday, who thought that the Bruins simply took what was a better offer from the Flames than what would have been on an offer sheet. (More on the details on what that would be in The Contrarian.) Then after the Hamilton trade was made, the Kings made an offer for Lucic that the Bruins simply couldn't refuse.

To me, what happened yesterday just goes to show how suddenly a team's plans can change on crazy days such as draft day, free agent frenzy day, and trade deadline day. A possibility that was being tossed around a fair bit after the two Bruins' trades was that the Bruins weren't done – that two of the first-round picks would be shipped off to Arizona for the number 3 pick and the right to pick local defenseman Noah Hanifin. Obviously that didn't happen, and the Bruins made an unprecedented three consecutive picks in the first round.

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In last weekend's Ramblings, I mentioned that I thought teams would draft for size again. That was true to some degree yesterday, with the Coyotes picking Dylan Strome at number 3. (Hey, I got my first three picks right! After that, not so much.) As well, we saw 175 lb. Mathew Barzal fall to number 16 (I like the trade and pick for the Islanders), although missing half the season due to injury seemed to really take a hit on Barzal's draft stock.

But one player who I thought really fell was 6'4", 215 lb. Lawson Crowse, who was drafted number 11 by the host Florida Panthers. How often have we seen the bigger player drafted first? Crowse would have been a top 10 pick – maybe even a top 5 pick – in other seasons. But that's also a factor of this really deep draft.

The Leafs were criticized a little for the somewhat surprising Mitch Marner pick, considering that they also picked a smaller forward in the first round last season in William Nylander. But we're seeing the NHL turn into more of a smaller player's game. If you're a Leafs' fan worried about his slight build (5'11", 160 lbs. – perhaps even considered a generous measurement at that), then keep in mind an interesting tidbit that I heard on one of the draft shows this week: Marner's mother is 5'11" herself, meaning that this kid may not be finished growing. In addition, Marner's brother also had a late growth spurt (Metro News).

When Mitch was 12, he and his father were featured in a CBC News report about hockey parents. Is Mr. Marner an overboard hockey dad, or does this reflect what is needed nowadays for a kid to get to the NHL? With my son closing in on the age in which I started minor hockey, the costs mentioned in this video frighten me if he ever decides he wants to play minor hockey. (Dig Mr. Marner’s hat too… it’s so Canadian.)