July 2, 2015

Kessel is in Pittsburgh, Beleskey goes to Boston, Edmonton is starting to look like a hockey team, and Detroit loads up for a Cup run.

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Be sure to check out all the pieces in the fantasy impact section for all the trade and signing information and analysis. The Dobber team has done a great job on staying current on the goings-on in the NHL over the last week. 

I’ll have more on last night’s/today’s moves as the day progresses. Also, I’ll have my regular thread in the Dobber Forums for any fantasy and non-fantasy hockey question the readers may have. 

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No reason to start anywhere else than in Pittsburgh, where the Penguins traded prospect defenceman Scott Harrington, prospect forward Kasperi Kapanen, Nick Spaling, and a first and third round draft pick next year to Toronto for Phil Kessel, minor leaguer Tyler Biggs, defenceman Tim Erixon, and a second round pick. The Leafs are also retaining 15-percent of Kessel's annual cap hit, which is important for Pittsburgh because of their existing cap issues.

What this does is give Crosby a true sniper to consistently play with for the first time in his career. That's not hyperbole: since 2007, Bill Guerin is Crosby's third-most used winger at five-on-five. Guerin retired five years ago.

It also gives Kessel a true first line centre to consistently play with for the first time in his career (though he did very well with Nazem Kadri in a relatively small sample). That's also important to note here: Tyler Bozak loses Kessel as a line mate, and that pretty much kills Bozak's fantasy value in non-deep formats. Bozak's points per 60 minutes at five-on-five without Kessel on his line over the last five years is 1.19 (over 783 minutes). That's worse than Drew Miller or Nick Spaling. Bozak could struggle to crack 40 points, and be a big minus player (again).

On to more pleasant thoughts, like Kessel playing with Crosby.

I know it's still kind of up in the air as to who exactly Kessel will end up playing with, but I can't imagine Pittsburgh makes a move of this magnitude to not give Crosby an elite winger. So just how well can Kessel do?

Think about it this way: Kessel managed 23 points in his 524:11 career minutes and seconds played with Nazem Kadri. For a full Kessel season (say 1275 minutes), that's 55-56 points. Add 20 power play points, and Kessel is a 75 point player. That's with Kadri. He was a better than a point per game from 2011-2014 overall.

Crosby (obviously) can drive up the shooting percentage of any player. Given that Kessel was due for a rebound anyway, I don't see why he's not a 40-goal and point per game player barring disaster. I'm curious to see how long they stay together, and if Kessel has upside beyond that. Saying I expect him to push for 50 goals is not a likely scenario, but if he did finish with 50 goals, I wouldn't be shocked. Again, that's upside, not expectation.

I know this trade involves several pieces, but the most fantasy-relevant one right now is Kessel. This seems to be the perfect pairing for Pittsburgh's top line, and would also free up Malkin from tough matchups. This will be dissected for years to come, but obviously this is a trade made with the next few years in mind.

For Leafs fans that will miss him (and you should), here's every goal Kessel scored in the 2013-2014 season. Hoo boy this is going to be fun to watch next year.