July 06 2015

Dobber

2015-07-06

My thoughts on Boedker, Nyquist, Wilson, Gelinas, Larsson, MDZ, Holtby; and more…

***

It being the long weekend, the latest news in hockey isn’t much. But one thing that did happen was the salary arbitration deadline. Players who file for arbitration (or have it filed for them by the team – club-elected arbitration deadline is Monday afternoon) are pretty much guaranteed to play next season. No holdouts or delays. One way or another, the contracts get settled. The full list is here, but I’ll go over some of the key names and give my thoughts on them:

Mikkel Boedker, Arizona – This is the year we determine just who is Boedker. For four consecutive seasons we’ve seen production at the same rate: between 0.54 and 0.62 points per game. He turns 26 in December so he’s entering his prime now. My hunch is that his range is indeed around there or just a tad higher, which puts him at 55 to 60 points per healthy season. With potential first liners coming on board over the next three years (Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Christian Dvorak are the best candidates), Boedker will have peaked after the year ahead.

Gustav Nyquist, Detroit – A year away from entering his fourth full NHL season by my definition, but I feel comfortable in my expectation of him to reach 75 points within two years. Only if he fails to reach 60 this season will I re-evaluate. And of course, if last season’s scoring leaders has become the NHL norm, than the 75 points would need to be adjusted accordingly.

Erik Haula, Minnesota – An interesting player in that he has some upside and has tended to produce above expectations ever since being a seventh-round pick in 2009. That is, until last season, which was a train wreck for him. Right now he’s outside of the top six with zero chance of ever getting in. The window has closed, last season was key.

Craig Smith, Nashville – He slipped a little under the new coach, in both points (eight points) and ice time (39 seconds) between 2014-15 and 2013-14. He plays with Forsberg and Ribeiro – and as Forsberg grows, Smith will be pulled upwards. I think he’s back over 50 points next year with a good chance of 60.

Braden Holtby, Washington – Holtby is a Top 6 or 7 goalie in the NHL in terms of fantasy hockey. Hopefully the Caps can sign him long term to something reasonable, before arbitration. Because if he gets just the one-year arbitration deal then he’ll use that year by posting a second consecutive 40-win season. And what contract would that lead to? The Caps better lock him in now.

Marcus Johansson, Washington – For four consecutive years Johansson has posted points in the 0.55-0.65 points-per-game range and that won’t change anytime soon. The last two years he had 0.55 and 0.57 points per game. With Justin Williams on the team now and with the two Russian youngsters fighting for ice time, Johansson will see more of the same production – or perhaps a little worse.

Some minor stuff – Rich Clune signed with Toronto’s farm team the Marlies as he battles back from addiction issues. Landon Ferraro signed with the Red Wings for one year. Tampa Bay signed free agent Jeff Tambellini to a one-year, two-way contract. Remember him?

Nazem Kadri signed with the Leafs for one year at $4.1 million. To me, he’ll either earn his big, long-term contract with a big year. Or Toronto will cut their losses and trade him at the deadline. I think it will be the former.

Jake Allen‘s two-year contract with the Blues was an interesting one in that he slides underneath Brian Elliott but only barely. Both goalies are signed for the next two years, with Elliott making $2.5 and Allen making $2.35. I’m afraid that for this year it will be more of the same versus last year. I don’t think Allen seizes the job yet and instead we’ll be cursed with a 50-50 split, barring an injury (which tends to hit Elliott often).

The ground has been broken on the Fantasy Guide! Every year I have to wait until free agency settles down before I can start work (otherwise I’d be redoing much of it). So essentially that means from July 2 until July 31 I calculate, sort, organize, write and edit over 150 pages of fantasy gold, as well as four spreadsheets. From there it’s just a matter of keeping it up to date with the latest camp news, injuries, depth charts, etc. I’m not sure if there are other Guides out there that update, but I can guarantee none will update as thoroughly or as often as mine. After all, this is my full-time job. I do nothing but sit here and wait for hockey news to react to, break down and analyze.

One great way to get this for cheap is to just take advantage of the Draft Kings deal. Get everything for 10 bucks. No tax added and three of the other guides are added free.