July 22, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-07-22

The fantasy implications of expansion, Holtby's elite status, a few breakout candidates and much, much more…

 

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Laidlaw here checking in for a dump of thoughts mid-way through my summer hiatus. First I want to thank all the guys filling in for me. I've been checking in and you are all doing excellent work. Way to keep up the high standard! I'd love to tell you that I kept today's ramblings short and sweet but you all know that's just not my style. Buckle in.

 

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With expansion looking like a reality, lots of folks are wondering what sort of fantasy impacts that will have. It's impossible to tell for sure but if we look back at previous expansion we can suss out a few things to watch out for.

 

The most obvious thing is the expansion of the player pool by something around 20 skaters and a couple of goalies per team. Assuming two expansion teams, that's 40 players and four extra goalies to consider. Those jobs will go to mostly bad players on bad teams. How bad, no one can say for sure.

 

If we assume these expansion rosters will be historically bad like last year's Sabres then you'll get no more than a couple of extra fantasy-relevant players and that also depends on your league size. Tyler Ennis led the Sabres with 46 points, followed by Matt Moulson with 41.

 

For most leagues a few extra 40-point players won't have an impact at all as those players are waiver fodder. In larger leagues it could add a couple of extra bargains. Whether or not that levels the playing field or increases the disparity between haves and have nots will be league dependant.

 

If however, we assume just run-of-the-mill badness like last year's Arizona Coyotes or Edmonton Oilers then the field of fantasy-relevant players expands that much more. Each of those teams boasted legitimate young stars like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle along with a smattering of other intriguing options like Mikkel Boedker, Nail Yakupov, Shane Doan, Antoine Vermette, Martin Hanzal, Sam Gagner and Justin Schultz. Most of those players were ultimately waiver fodder in most leagues but guys like Eberle and Yandle had impacts in 95% of fantasy leagues.

 

Looking back at previous expansion teams:

 

The Nashville Predators had Cliff Ronning average 59 points over their first three years of existence and a smattering of 40-point forwards. Also, a young Kimmo Timonen emerged as an intriguing option on defense.

 

The Atlanta Thrashers had Andrew Brunette average 55 points for their first two year, got a 70-point season out of an aging Ray Ferraro in year two, and saw the exciting dual rookie seasons of Dany Heatley and Ilya Kovalchuk in year three.

 

The Minnesota Wild had Jacques Lemaire trying to suck the life out of hockey but even managed to give us some highlights like bringing Marian Gaborik into the league with a pair of 60-point seasons in years two and three. They also got an average of 55 points out of Andrew Brunette for a couple of years. Most importantly they introduced us to Rollie the Goalie, Dwayne Roloson who had a brief run as a fantasy gem in net.

 

Finally, the Columbus Blue Jackets gave Geoff Sanderson a couple of finally seasons of relevance before departing on the washed-up veteran victory tour, a couple of underrated Ray Whitney seasons where he scored 60+ points and nobody noticed and other various oddities like whatever an Espen Knutsen is.

 

Even during a period when the NHL was clutching and grabbing its way to lower and lower scoring totals these expansion teams still managed to add a player or two to the talent pool. I'd expect something similar to take place. A cagey veteran forward or two will latch on with whatever new expansion team pops up and will offer something in the range of 50-point scoring to lead the team while his former team back fills with new young talent and doesn't miss much. I cannot wait to see Jaromir Jagr suiting up in Las Vegas a couple of years from now. And just try to tell me you can't picture Mike Cammalleri in a Nordiques uniform.

 

But that's just the direct impact, there's also the indirect impact that expansion teams will have. They'll offer a crappy opponent for the league to beat up on. This could, in theory, boost scoring. Unfortunately for us, the last time the NHL went through expansion it was simultaneously crashing in terms of scoring.

 

From 1995-96 to 1997-98, the year before the most recent expansion began, league scoring fell from 3.14 goals per game to 2.92 and then 2.63. Expansion in 1998-99 hardly made a dent with scoring lingering at 2.64 goals per game. It jumped the following couple of seasons to 2.76 and 2.75 with further expansion but then dropped right back down to 2.62, 2.65 and finally a glacial 2.57 the year before the lockout, which is also the lowest we've seen scoring since the 1950's.

 

If expansion helped the situation then the impact it had was in delaying the inevitable tightening of the game that was taking place but there is an argument that expansion homogenized the game, thinning out the talent across more teams and reducing scoring.

 

To test this, we might look at how top teams scored before and after expansion. In 1995-96 the top three teams in the league scored 4.14, 3.98 and 3.96 goals per game respectively. In 1996-97 they scored 3.47, 3.34 and 3.33, while in 1997-98 they scored 3.12, 3.05, and 2.95.

 

Clearly top teams were affected by the slowing of the game well before any effect from expansion could take place. What happened after expansion?

 

In 1998-99 the top three teams scored 3.27, 3.02 and 2.99 goals per game respectively. In 1999-00 it was 3.39, 3.06 and 3.02, while in 2000-01 it was 3.60, 3.43 and 3.34.

 

There's enough there to suggest that maybe the once the league expanded by four teams there were enough bottom feeders for the top teams to pick on that the best teams really did get a boost but the data sample is so small I'd hate to draw conclusions.

 

Looking anecdotally at the top scorers each year tells a similarly murky story. Did the best scorers benefit from having weaker teams to pick on? Maybe but it's really hard to tell. From 1995-96 to 2000-01 there were strong years and lean years with no real way of discerning how or why beyond the notable absence of Mario Lemieux from 1997-98 through 1999-00 having been forced into retirement while still the best player in the game.

 

Ultimately, I just don't see a huge effect on fantasy hockey from expansion. Certainly, the deeper your league the greater the impact and expansion won't be friendly for those in cap leagues either as it expands the pot of money that can be spent, without necessarily expanding the pot of elite players with which to spend it on. That means the middle class will continue to be overpaid and I suspect that in most cap leagues there are enough overpaid mediocre players floating on the waiver wire as is. On the flip side, more teams means more bargains on entry-level deals so cap leaguers, there is a yin and yang to this expansion.

 

For the average pooler it means more names to track but not definitively more relevant names to track. Of course, the game is still growing in the US. Eventually they and other countries will produce enough talent to meet the increased demands of the league and at that point the talent pool of superstars and secondary stars may expand. It will take time to meet this demand, however. There is an argument that only now, some 15 years after the NHL last expanded that we are meeting the demands for talent of 30 teams.

 

I have to admit, I'm pretty saddened by this conclusion. I was all set to rant about how if expansion takes place in a couple of years it will coincide perfectly with Connor McDavid hitting years three through five, his real scoring prime. I wanted to go on and on about how we'd see McDavid hit heights Sidney Crosby didn't even hit because as Crosby was hitting his prime the league started tightening up again. I'm not ruling out 120-point madness from McDavid, because who knows, but I am ruling out expansion as a factor in causing it. You can all prepare to call me an idiot when McDavid breaks Marcel Dionne's single game scoring record against the Las Vegas Aces. I promise not to be offended.

 

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As for my thoughts on expansion in general, I say bring it on. As I mentioned earlier, we are starting to catch up and fill the talent demands for the 30 teams we do have. If that influx doesn't plateau there will come a need to create more jobs, which means more teams. Maybe need isn't the right word there. Potential is perhaps the better term. After all, if there's more talent in the world than can fill 30 NHL teams then that left over talent trickles down to lower levels and AHL fans get a better product and then CHL fans get a better product and fans of European leagues get a better product. The NHL game doesn't HAVE to grow. But the potential is certainly coming and there does seem to be a demand for it in certain markets.

 

Demand, however is another issue. There isn't a demand for NHL hockey in all the cities that the NHL currently occupies. On this front expansion seems to be moving too quickly. That said, I'm not in any position to be telling the real fans that do exist in these communities that they don't deserve a team just because there aren't enough of them to consistently fill the arena if the team isn't doing well. So I wouldn't deny fans in Las Vegas or Quebec City or any other destination a team just because hockey isn't currently working in Arizona or Florida. Realistically, there are enough viable destinations for both expansion and relocation to take place.

 

Consider me an expansion optimist. The game is more entertaining than it's ever been. The players are bigger, faster and more skilled and there are just enough whistles to keep them honest. Sure, nets should probably be bigger and goalie pads should definitely be smaller to increase scoring but even without much scoring the game is fast, physical and entertaining. Expansion will homogenize things while the world catches up to fill the talent void but once it does, the more the merrier.

 

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Speaking of the speed and excitement of the game. A huge reason for this is the growing number of agile, mobile, skilled defensemen playing the game today. It's practically a prerequisite at this point.

 

There will only be one Bobby Orr but that's because of how far ahead of his time he was. Now, teams are trying to ice six Orr's at once. Defensemen need to be able to skate the puck out or jump into the rush when the opportunity presents itself. That's why we are seeing more high scoring defensemen than we have in a while.

 

Coaches will eventually figure out a counter to this. They always do. But in the mean time you should expect to see big scoring figures from defensemen. Calgary is shooting to have five defensemen clear 30 points this season. They'll fail but a repeat of last season's four is a strong possibility.

 

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If you are sitting on someone who flashed impressive stats during the playoffs and you are wondering what to make of them, my advice is to fall back on their regular season numbers. Each players' situation is specific and different but the general theme is that playoffs provide small sample sizes and shouldn't be viewed without considering the whole of the entire season as well. Bryan Bickell is the perfect example of this but so is Jonathan Quick who turns into another animal come playoff time but has mostly been a regular season disappointment.

 

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Braden Holtby is looking for $8 million as he heads into salary arbitration. Don't be too boggled by that number. If he goes in asking for $6 million then he'll wind up with something less. He should get $6 million annually, on a long term deal. It's pretty much the going rate for starters outside of the top echelon.

 

There is always cause for concern when locking up a goaltender for so many years and so many dollars – see Smith, Mike – but the case for Holtby is as good as you'll find for someone who won't be asking for the Lundqvist contract.

 

Holtby's situation reminds me of the Cory Schneider one from a couple of years ago. While Holtby only has one full 82-game season as the bona fide #1 in Washington he's held down the title for three years running. He also has a statistical track record of elite play since cracking the NHL that one should have full confidence in.

 

Of goalies to have played over 4000 minutes over the past five years, Holtby's five-on-five save percentage ranks fifth, right behind Schneider. The three at the top are Tuukka Rask, Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist making this pretty much a who's who of elite goaltending.

 

As for all-situation goaltending, Holtby ranks seventh in save percentage among goalies who have skated over 4000 minutes in the past five years. You'll never guess the names ahead of him on that list. Oh wait, of course you will. #elitestatus

 

What's amazing about Holtby's stance on this list is that it even comes after what everyone considers a terrible 2013-14 season. But he wasn't actually that bad that year. He still managed a 0.915 save percentage despite a goalie coach who was actively messing with him and a porous defensive group in front of him. His isn't a case like that of Devan Dubnyk where he has multiple years of shaky play behind him with only one elite year. Holtby has been elite every year but one and has actually put together a full 60+ start season of elite play.

 

With the coaching staff in place in Washington, Holtby is a top-five fantasy goalie. He was this past season and will be again next season.

 

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And if you are wondering why 4000 minutes for the stats above, well that's the cut off for 66 starts worth of minutes. Not a high hurdle by any means but large enough to push out anyone with less than a season's worth of playing time. Looking at you, Thomas Greiss.

 

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Is Cody Franson willing to accept the standard NHL-defenseman-who-can-walk-and-chew-gum-at-the-same-time contract? Because if he is, then I think there's a long term deal to be had for him on virtually any team in the league. It's the team that pushes above that $4 million annual standard that will land him. However, the team that pushes above that limit is also in for a disappointment.

 

You give Franson $4 million, he has a chance of outperforming that deal. Give him $5 million or more and that becomes much more challenging because he is limited as a player. He has a specific role that he can fill but he's not going to be a 22 minute a night guy – at least not without help.

 

That last caveat is what's important. The money spent landing Franson might also be required to provide the help he needs to be a top-four defenseman every night on a winning club.

 

 

The best point he makes is as follows:

 

Two, I'm not sure this means that more 18-22 year olds should be trusted. A lot of players that age are sitting in junior, NCAA, or the AHL because they're not ready for this level of competition, and for good reason. The players who are getting the NHL minutes generally are physical specimens and/or so finely skilled that they've been blasting inferior competition for quite some time. Truthfully, it shouldn't be surprising that they're more than adequate defenders, even in their young age.

 

No one is arguing for more young players to get rushed to the NHL but if they are good enough to make it teams should be using their young players in high leverage roles. It's the best way to maximize the value gained by their cheap entry-level deals. Plus, it gives you the most information possible on whether or not to trust said player in the future as they head into their second or third contract. If you've got a young player who proves himself at 20, 21 or 22 you can be more confident handing out a long term deal and use the leverage of the restricted free agent status to keep the cap hit down.

 

We saw from this past rookie class that players are coming to the NHL ready to make an impact right away. Maybe it was an anomaly but we may see more of this as players come in already heavily coached up at the lower levels and getting introduced to off-ice training earlier and earlier. Also, with coaches pushing to roll their lines a lot more there is more opportunity for young players to skate meaningful minutes on a nightly basis.

 

Of course, this year is going to be a wild one for rookies with McDavid and Eichel making the leap but looking at the landscape for young players in general I see a few 22 or under who could really make an impact:

 

Rasmus Ristolainen

 

The Sabres will probably suck once again but if they can even become a respectably bad team then Ristolainen has a chance to put up numbers. He's the top offensive defenseman that they have so 40 points is a real possibility.

 

Jonathan Huberdeau

 

He's already been put in a big role but now he's ready to fulfill it. Fourth year breakout is looking good here. His scoring took off once Jaromir Jagr arrived. His per/60 numbers leave him in the top 25 for even strength scoring, which is a good place to be. The Panthers do need to figure out their power play if Huberdeau is to hit a big level like 70 points.

 

Andre Burakovsky

 

Barry Trotz is the devil when it comes to bringing along young players. Burakovsky produced whenever given a chance. It seems unlikely that Trotz will give either Burakovsky or Evgeny Kuznetsov much rope, especially since the team added veterans like Justin Williams and TJ Oshie to fill out the wings but if given the chance Burakovsky will get you up to 50 points.

 

Teuvo Teravainen

 

I'll start off with this nugget, Teravainen's per/60 numbers at even strength do not fit the profile of a breakout candidate but he didn't get a full season of play so there could be some small sample noise here. When I watched him play I saw the second most offensively creative player on the Blackhawks. We'll have to see if he gets the minutes needed to produce. I think we'll be waiting another year but the skills are there.

 

Tyler Toffoli

 

This is cheating. He's 23 and already kind of broke out with 49 points but only five of those came on the power play. If Los Angeles smartens up and sticks him on the top unit we're talking big money.

 

Ryan Spooner

 

Cheating again as Spooner is also 23. He was productive when he played last season and is stepping into the third line center slot that was productive for Carl Soderberg for much of the season. Remember, what I mentioned earlier about the Bruins rolling their power play lines evenly? Well they also do that with their top three lines at even strength. 15 minutes a night with two of those on the power play is well within reach for Spooner, which makes 40 points a likelihood.

 

David Pastrnak

 

If you read me all season then this name should come as no surprise to you. I've been all over Pastrnak for a while now. He's a beauty. He produces shots at massive rates and had per/60 scoring numbers in the top 20, which puts him within range of some of our other breakout candidates. Like everyone else here he just needs the consistent minutes and I cannot wait to see him get them.

 

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On the flip side of these breakouts lots of you wanted to know about what to expect from some youngsters who broke out this year. I was specifically asked about Filip Forsberg, Nikita Kucherov and Mark Stone. I don't want to spoil my piece for the Dobber Guide on players headed for a stock drop but I will say that those three specific players have very impressive underlying numbers despite boasting high on-ice shooting percentages.

 

Traditionally, it's always best to zig when everyone else wants to zag. These players will be hot commodities come draft day and I don't think it's wrong to exercise caution when approaching them. Talking specifically for one-year leagues here as in keepers these guys are so young and talented that they are worth taking even if they might be headed for a bit of a decline this season.

 

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Was asked for some candidates to bounce back similar to how Mike Ribeiro did this past season.

 

Right off the bat I'm thinking Patrick Sharp headed to that explosive offensive environment in Dallas. He'll get right back into the 70's if skating with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin all year. I'd liken this to Dany Heatley joining the Sharks a few years back.

 

If you recall, Heatley was a hit for one year and then swiftly decline thereafter. He had what you'd call a dead cat bounce.

 

I see something similar for Sharp. Everything about his game is headed in the wrong direction. His shots remain high but they are occurring from further and further out because he just doesn't have the game to get in close so his shooting percentage is dropping. Dallas can prop him up but we'll see for how long. Dead cat bounce.

 

Patrick Marleau, coincidentally still with San Jose is suffering a similar decline as Sharp. He may dead cat bounce but for inexplicable reasons as there's no reason why he'd improve on a decaying Sharks team.

 

Taylor Hall is ripe for a bounce back. The Oilers still need to figure out their defense situation but it is improving. More importantly, we've seen examples of teams, like the Avalanche a couple of years ago, riding young forward talent to extreme scoring success. McDavid + Hall = fireworks. 90 points for Hall. Calling it now.

 

I'm fairly optimistic about Eric Staal rebounding. 70 seems like a stretch without much help in Carolina but he should get back into the 60's. His declining even strength production is disconcerting but remember he scored nearly a point per game at even strength during the lockout shortened 2013 season. Smaller sample to be sure but that was only two years ago that he put up half a season that was top 10 in the league.

 

I think Mike Green could go ape shit in Detroit. Even with Pavel Datsyuk looking like he might miss half the season he was probably going to miss half the season with this injury and the other anyhow. At least now we know. When Datsyuk is around this team will be magic and when he's not there is still plenty of firepower. Defensively and in net there are huge question marks but in terms of scoring the talent is there. For Green the opportunity is there as well.

 

Consider that Marek Zidlicky went off for eight power-play points in 21 games with Detroit to close last season. Green can probably impersonate that. While he's only good for like 60 games a year if we extrapolate he could put up some 20-25 PPP in just 60 games. He doesn't have to put up many points at even strength to be fantasy gold in that environment.

 

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Was asked about what to do with prospects in this draft class following the big two of Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid and how to handle expectations. I think you'll find that any time there is a huge name in a draft class like McDavid it artificially raises the bar for other prospects in that same draft class. Remember when Bobby Ryan was supposed to become an 80+ guy? At least some of that was from being the guy who went after Crosby.

 

I think we see something similar here with Dylan Strome, Mitch Marner, etc. They put up some GAUDY draft year numbers in junior but if these guys went in say the Yakupov draft year they may have gone #1 but there's also a chance they'd have wound up disappointing like Yakupov has. Maybe not to the same extent but I'm saying that chances are they won't be superstars. Heck, chances are they don't hit 80 in their careers. It's a rare feat.

 

If I'm faced drafting one of those players or trading for a proven talent, I'm taking the proven talent in most scenarios. It all depends however. Let me offer an example that runs counter to my point but still helps to explain it.

 

In one keeper league I had the eighth and 12th picks in the prospects draft. All prospects who hadn't been previously drafted into the league with no NHL experience plus all the 2015 NHL draft picks. I was pretty darn certain I was taking Mikko Rantanen at #8. I'd been certain of that since about January when watching him at the World Juniors.

 

I think Rantanen is a Patric Hornqvist clone. Hornqvist is great especially in leagues like this with shots on-goal as a scoring category but he's not a superstar.

 

I was offered Rick Nash for both #8 and #12 and some spare change on either side. I passed. My team is too old to pass on a chance to inject young talent and Nash is just a bit too much of not a superstar for me to part with both those assets. If it's someone younger like Anze Kopitar or Vladimir Tarasenko I take the deal in a heartbeat. Nash, just a bit too old to swing the deal.

 

Anyways, I ultimately take Dylan Larkin over Rantanen only to see Rantanen go at #9. I take Matthew Barzal at #12. Would I move Larkin and Barzal for Nash today? Still no. Tarasenko? Where do I sign. And for Tarasenko I'd do it even if I was sitting on Larkin and Strome. At a certain point a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.

 

I should mention that who I drafted hasn't stopped me from shopping around but so far Nash looks like the best guy I can pull for these young talents in this league. Not enough for me to pull the trigger so the search continues because I am always going to try to win now.

 

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Was asked about what to expect from the Minnesota Wild and why their offense is so underwhelming. Where is the elite talent on this team? Ryan Suter is elite but not at offense. He isn't dynamic like Erik Karlsson, PK Subban or Duncan Keith. Nor does he offer the power game of a Shea Weber or Brent Burns. He just chews minutes with steady play.

 

Ken Hitchcock had a great line this season about how elite goal scorers need to be able to score from distance and you can in a way carry that notion over to this Wild team. Who do they have who can score from distance?

 

Look at the top scoring teams from this past season. Tampa Bay has Stamkos and Kucherov, Dallas has Benn and Seguin, the Rangers have Nash (even if I just said he was too crusty for me), the Islanders have Tavares, the Blues have Tarasenko, the Capitals have Ovechkin. This is not a perfect science but is there a guy on the Wild you think can score 10+ goals from beyond the slot?

 

Zach Parise would have to be the guy but he's a 31-year-old overachiever who is starting to feel the wear and tear of being undersized in the NHL for a decade. Compared to the list above I'm left wanting. Thomas Vanek and Mikael Granlund are supposed to be gamebreakers for Minnesota but Vanek is a waste, one bad season away from getting the Semin treatment and Granlund just hasn't turned into the offensive force we hoped he would.

 

The Wild are a good team with a ton of talent playing an excellent system but there isn't that one guy who can elevate everything another notch. Maybe if Mike Yeo and staff knew how to run a power play with consistent success in the NHL they'd reach another level. But they've been in the bottom half of the league in power play efficiency for four years running. I don't see this as a total coincidence.

 

Maybe Mike Reilly can come in and spruce things up. Certainly I hope that he takes some of the minutes burden away from Suter. With Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella and now Reilly the Wild should have enough defensemen to keep Suter closer to 25 minutes a night. Will Reilly really be an offensive hit though? I'm skeptical.

 

Torey Krug made the leap from college stud to NHL power play quarterback in short order but he also needed a year in the AHL to find his game. Justin Schultz is another guy who made the leap but has really struggled with the transition.

 

My preference is to not stick my neck out one way or the other but instead to try and read the tea leaves. Where does the rest of your league sit on Reilly? Has he been drafted yet? What does his owner think of him? In deeper leagues Reilly is getting golden boy treatment because of the upside and opportunity in front of him. In shallower leagues and one-year leagues there's an actual chance to find value there. If I was an owner I'd be selling on the hype. Remember, zig when others zag.

 

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I know I didn't cover all the topics that got sent to me but I'm thankful for everyone's submissions. Good to get back in the saddle again! Not sure when you'll hear from me again so have a great summer. I'll see you in the fall!

 

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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