July 24, 2015
Michael Clifford
2015-07-24
I don't suppose there is another place to start than with the monster news of Thursday that the New Jersey Devils would lose long-time president/general manager/coach Lou Lamoriello to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Lamoriello signed on with the Leafs to be their new general manager, a position that had been vacant since the firing of Dave Nonis after the season was over.
I wrote a little bit about this on the site, and that can be read here. There was also a, let's say, vigorous debate in the Forums on this topic. I encourage the readers to go to either for more information or discussion on this move.
The one quote that scared me was from Jonas Siegel of TSN, who quoted Lamoriello as saying that the new GM will have full autonomy. Presumably, he means full autonomy over the roster. Lamoriello would go on to say that he would still report to team president Brendan Shanahan, but that's not a surprise. Every organization has a hierarchy, and every general manager reports to the president.
Lamoriello is without a doubt one of the most experience minds in the game. He also had a lot of success with the Devils. Almost all of that success came before the salary cap era, though. Since the 2004-2005 lockout, the Devils made it past the second round of the playoffs once, and that was their Cup Final run in 2012. It should be noted that team owed a large part of its success to Ilya Kovalchuk, a player whose contract was deemed to be cap circumvention, and the NHL fined the Devils $3-million, a first round pick and a third round pick (some of those were eventually slackened). The point remains that he built a consistently average, or slightly above-average team, for a decade.
Reminder that first set of numbers (2.26, .923) are still top-10 for goalie in roto leagues, and the second set (.214, .927) are top-5, but it shows that he doesn't have to fall off that much to not be worth close to a first round pick, or probably even a second round pick. Taking him that early means banking on, A) him replicating last year or, B) Montreal improving a lot defensively. Or coming very close to last year, and Montreal improving a bit defensively. Either is a tall order.
This isn't Tuukka Rask playing behind arguably the best defensive team in the NHL. This is Carey Price bailing out a team almost night in and night out. That's a big gamble for a first round pick.
For a moment, let’s just remember the year that was:
The more I think about it, the more I think I won't be surprised if Phil Kessel doesn't end up playing with Sidney Crosby for the majority of the year at even strength, but rather Evgeni Malkin. Here's my reasoning.
Malkin posted a three-year low in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five in 82-game seasons at 2.39. That mark is still pretty good, but he had a big dip in his assist rate, which ended up being his lowest since this started being kept track of in 2007-2008 (excluding the lockout-shortened season). I don't think it's a coincidence that it came in the year that he lost James Neal as a line mate.
Crosby has shown the ability through the years to drag almost anyone to a productive season (I mean, come on, he got Chris Kunitz on the Olympic team). Also, the Penguins are still lacking a true shutdown center, as I don't really think Brandon Sutter has fulfilled the expectation of this role in his Pittsburgh tenure.
It would make sense to turn to Perron-Crosby-Dupuis or Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis, and use them in more of a defensive role, only to have the duo of Kessel-Malkin run wild on "lesser" matchups. Chicago has done pretty well as a team while keeping Patrick Kane off of Toews' line for the most part (they've played together at five-on-five for less than one-quarter of Toews' ice time over the last four years). I'm wondering if the Penguins don't do the same thing with Crosby and Kessel.
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Speaking of the Penguins, keep an eye on David Perron when drafts roll around. He's a guy that is locked in a top-six role in Pittsburgh, is coming off a down year, and is still just 27-years old.
Perron's down year saw a goals per 60 minutes rate of 0.74 (including his time with Edmonton). That was just behind Sean Monahan (0.76), and just ahead of the aforementioned Kessel (0.73). His rate the previous three years (0.87) was the same as Patrick Kane and Kyle Okposo.
It depends on his draft position, but I don't think Perron goes inside the single-digit rounds in a 12-team league. Once things get to round 10 or later, there are much worse gambles to take. He will cruise past two shots per game and will rack the penalty minutes, so the peripherals are fine. Don't be surprised if he gets back to the 25-goal, 55-point plateau (if healthy) next year.