Projecting the two biggest risers and two biggest fallers in this year's Yahoo! draft rankings...

Well folks, this is it. What started several weeks ago with six brackets and 50 players has come down to just two players and one final vote. Maybe some of you already have your minds made up as to who to select, but I urge you to read the column, as in addition to what I included in each previous tournament article, I’ll try to give you still more perspective that hopefully will allow you to cast the most informed vote possible. And if that’s not enough, there’s even another bonus quiz at the end of the column!

What You’re Voting on, and How the Final Is a Bit Different

Up to this point, you were separately voting on which NHLer’s Yahoo fantasy draft position will increase the most in 2015-16 compared to 2014-15, as well as that player’s counterpart, namely who’ll see his Yahoo draft position fall the most. But now that your votes have selected the biggest riser (Vladimir Tarasenko) and biggest faller (Alexander Semin), all that’s left is to have them face off head-to-head to determine if Tarasenko will rise more than Semin will fall, or whether, instead, Semin will fall more than Tarasenko will rise.

Just to make sure we’re clear, let’s say you think Tarasenko will be drafted – on average – 43rd overall in Yahoo leagues for 2015-16, and that Semin will be selected 193rd. In that case, Tarasenko, who was drafted – on average – at 159.6 overall in 2014-15 Yahoo drafts, will have risen 116 spots while Semin, who was selected on average at 119.9 in 2014-15 Yahoo drafts, will have fallen just 74 spots, making Tarasenko the one you should vote for. But if instead you think Tarasenko will be drafted on average 39th and Semin 252nd, then Semin will have fallen, on average, farther than Tarasenko will have risen (132 spots for Semin, vs. 120 spots for Tarasenko), and Semin would get your vote.

Full tournament “rules” were in the week one column, but the most important things to remember are you’re voting based on a hypothetical one year Yahoo league where G, A, +/-, Hits, PPP, and SOG are the only six categories and are all equally weighted. And because we’re talking about Yahoo leagues, be sure to factor in the overall mindset of the Yahoo fantasy universe when making your choices. Like previous weeks, voting will take place in the Hockey Hockey Hockey Hockey area of DobberHockey Forums. See below for a direct link to vote.

Overall Thoughts on Week Three and Its Results

Because Tarasenko and Semin both won their round two brackets, it was hardly a shock to see them advance to here from round three. But it’s worth noting that Tarasenko’s margin of victory shrank all the way down from 31 (i.e., 40 votes to nine) in the second round, to just nine (23 votes to 14) in round three, whereas Semin’s margin of victory actually increased from a mere three (18 votes to 15) in round two, up to 17 (25 votes to eight) in round three. On paper, that would bode well for an evenly matched final this week.

Of course the wrinkle is that nearly all votes for Semin were cast prior to him signing a one year deal with the Habs. The important thing to remember is we’re not predicting how Semin will perform in 2015-16, only where he’ll be drafted. That having been said, him being inked to a deal means you can now cast your vote without concern that he’ll be unsigned or could flee to the KHL.

Some Comparative Food for Thought

In the past three columns (see above for a link to week one, here for week two, and here for week three) I’ve written extensively about both Tarasenko and Semin, so there’s not much more to be said about them specifically. I suggest you go back and (re)read those columns before casting your vote here.

One piece of information I hadn’t previously provided was where other possibly comparable players were drafted in 2014-15, since that would’ve been too difficult to do for everyone in each bracket. But now that we’re down to just two players left, doing so could lend some added perspective. The only issue is I don’t have a list of players picked beyond 200; however, we can see if any players picked in the top 200 from 2014-15 could be likened – at this time last year – to where Semin stands now.

2014-15 Yahoo Draft Comparisons for Tarasenko

Tarasenko scored 73 points in 77 games in 2014-15, for a points per game average of 0.95 (i.e., an 82 game scoring pace of 77 points). Prior to that, he scored 43 points in 62 games in 2013-14, for an 82 game scoring pace of 55 points. Thus, to best draw from other 2014-15 draft data, we’d want to look for players who had a point per game average of roughly 0.95 in 2013-14, and preferably those who hadn’t achieved that kind of scoring output in a previous full season.

While there’s no “apples to apples” comparison given all the factors involved, Kyle Okposo did score 69 points in 71 games for 2013-14 after never previously posting more than 52 points. While Tarasenko was a couple of years younger during his breakout, the Okposo comparison is still viable from where I sit. And for what it’s worth, Okposo was drafted – on average – at 100.5 in 2014-15 Yahoo drafts.

Here are some other average draft spots for players who had points per game rates between 0.91 and 0.97 in the 2013-14 campaign, along with where – on average – they were drafted for 2014-15 on Yahoo:

• Alexander Steen – 0.91 points per game (drafted at 75.2 on average)
• Joe Thornton – 0.93 points per game (drafted at 69.1 on average)
• Patrick Sharp – 0.95 points per game (drafted at 26.9 on average)
• Nicklas Backstrom – 0.96 points per game (drafted at 67.9 on average)
• Joe Pavelski – 0.97 points per game (drafted at 28.6 on average)

It’s interesting that none of the six were drafted in the 30-65 range, although the average draft spot among them was 61.3. Not only did Sharp and Pavelski have a long track record of production, but they also were eligible at more than one position, unlike Tarasenko, Okposo, Thornton, or Backstrom.

2014-15 Yahoo Draft Comparisons for Semin

Semin went from feast to famine over the course of only three seasons, namely 44 points in 44 games (2012-13), then 42 points in 65 games (2013-14), and finally 19 points in 57 games (2014-15). In order to find a good comparison, we need to focus on players with similar downward trajectories. And ironically, the place to start might just be with P.A. Parenteau, who had been brought to the Habs last summer to seemingly occupy a top six winger role much like the one Semin is penciled in for now.

If you look at Parenteau’s production since 2012-13, it’s very similar to Semin’s, as Parenteau posted 43 points in 48 games (2012-13), then 33 points in 55 games (2013-14), and finally 22 points in 56 games (2014-15). In total, that’s 98 points in 159 games (0.61 points per game average, i.e., 50 points per 82 games) compared to 105 points in 166 games (0.63 points per game average, i.e., 52 points per 82 games) for Semin. We don’t know where Parenteau will be drafted by Yahoo poolies for 2015-16; however, coming of seasons of 33 points in 55 games in 2013-14 and 43 points in 48 games in 2012-13, Parenteau was selected – on average – at 182.4 for 2014-15, whereas Semin was selected at 119.9 after similar output in 2012-13 and 2013-14. Both certainly will drop further in draft position for 2015-16, but the magic question is by how much.

For added perspective, let’s examine what happened to some other “name” players who finished, in 2013-14, with points per game averages at or near 0.33 (which is what Semin posted in 2014-15) to see if they were even drafted in the top 200 for 2014-15 Yahoo fantasy leagues.

• Erik Cole = 0.39 points per game in 2013-14 (not drafted in top 200 for 2014-15)
• Nail Yakupov = 0.38 points per game in 2013-14 (drafted, on average, at 166.4 for 2014-15)
• Dany Heatley = 0.37 points per game in 2013-14 (drafted, on average, at 170.7 for 2014-15)
• Tomas Fleischmann = 0.35 points per game in 2013-14 (not drafted in top 200 for 2014-15)
• Alexander Burrows = 0.31 points per game in 2013-14 (not drafted in top 200 for 2014-15)
• David Booth = 0.29 points per game in 2013-14 (not drafted in top 200 for 2014-15)
• Nikolai Kulemin = 0.29 points per game in 2013-14 (not drafted in top 200 for 2014-15)

By and large, players who produced at a roughly 0.33 points per game rate in 2013-14 didn’t end up being drafted – on average – in the top 200 for 2014-15 despite name recognition. That having been said, the player to whom Semin might most closely compare (other than Parenteau) is Heatley, although in Heatley’s case going into 2014-15 there were hopes he’d play alongside Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, whereas Semin might not be as tantalizing because with all due respect to the Canadiens they don’t have an opening in their top six that’s as enticing as a spot next to Getzlaf and Perry.

The Finalists and Voting Link

Here again are your finalists, with their 2014-15 stats:

Vladimir Tarasenko – 159.6 average draft position – 77 games, 37G, 36A, +27, 18 PPP, 32 Hits, 264 SOG

Alexander Semin – 119.9 average draft position -57 games, 6G, 13A, -10, 4 PPP, 30 Hits, 93 SOG

Remember – you should vote for Tarasenko if you think his average draft position in 2015-16 Yahoo fantasy hockey leagues (compared to 2014-15) will rise more than Semin’s will fall (also as compared to 2014-15). On the other hand, you should vote for Semin if, instead, you think that his draft position in 2015-16 Yahoo fantasy hockey leagues (compared to 2014-15) will fall more than Tarasenko’s will rise (also as compared to 2014-15).

Click here to vote

Voting will close on Sunday August 2nd, so make sure to cast your ballots in time. Next week it’s back to a regular Cage Match column, which will include a quick summary of the results of this match! But before we close this week’s column, it’s time for a…….

Bonus Quiz!

Last week I asked which five defensemen were among the top 50 average picks in Yahoo leagues for 2014-15, so I figured let’s do another quiz. Match the following eight players with the average draft positions provided below, based again on 2014-15 Yahoo leagues. Post your guesses in the comments according to the correct number and letter combinations.

1) Jarome Iginla – RW                                                                                                                     a) 117.4

2) Bryan Little – C, RW                                                                                                                    b) 127.5

3) Jonathan Bernier – G                                                                                                                                c) 113.1

4) Brandon Saad – LW, RW                                                                                                           d) 139.5

5) Cam Fowler – D                                                                                                                           e) 90.2

6) Jonathan Drouin – LW, RW                                                                                                     f) 111.1

7) Jason Pominville – RW                                                                                                              g) 122.3

8) Brent Seabrook – D                                                                                                                    h) 130.6