August 3 2015

Dobber

2015-08-03

Connor McDavid - USA Today Sports Images

Thoughts on Jonathan Bernier, as well as my Top 10 projected rookie scorers, some sleeper defensemen I like;  and more…

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The Maple Leafs signed Jonathan Bernier to an extension. Two years, $8.3 million. This was agreed to before the arbitrator came back with a ruling, and it adds a year to what the ruling would have granted. Bernier has a 2.78, 0.918 stat line as a Leaf. The contract pushes him past the first year of his UFA eligibility.  But goalies have had touch-and-go luck when it comes to free agency these past couple of years.

Once again, the Leafs are preaching "competition" when it comes to James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier. But we all know that it will be Bernier. However, Reimer does tend to get hot and I think he'll still be good for at least 35 games. And if he gets super hot, well then the Leafs can get something for him so he'll be dealt.

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The Wild also signed Erik Haula to a two-year deal before the arbitrator came back with a ruling. Per Michael Russo, it's for $950k the first year and $1.05 million in Year 2. After the year he had last season (a horrible one), and with the other talent moving up through the system and/or solidifying their spots in the top six and top nine, Haula is probably on his way to becoming a full-time checker. He had potential, but that was a big step backward at the absolute worst time.

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With little in the way of fantasy hockey these days, let's talk concussion suit. Where do you fall in this battle? Does the NHL have a case here by saying:

The NHL has argued interested players could have read medical research and news reports on their own and put “two and two together” about the dangers of repeated head hits and concussions.

I do think that players are entitled to a lot more money after they retire. But I also think that this lawsuit is a cash grab and yes, the players needed to put two and two together. That being said, the NHL should absolutely pay for any and all health-related costs as a result of the job they gave to their employees.

And getting back to that retirement money – I think both the NHL and NHLPA should be paying more into the pension. Current players owe former players a huge debt, and I'm guessing that not much of that debt is being paid. Just my brief opinion on the matter

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There is absolutely nothing going on in the hockey world. Coming up with half a Ramblings in August takes me 10 times as long as a huge Ramblings in November. I do, however, have 30 articles written for your reading pleasure – my annual team-by-team fantasy outlooks. You've already seen Anaheim and Arizona. I'll roll the others out throughout the month of August. The content will flow here on DobberHockey!

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So I went to the forum for some Rambling ideas and found a great thread on sleeper defensemen here. And blammo, I have a topic to ramble on about. Here are my faves…

Andrej Sekera – I have him in the Fantasy Guide for 38 points. That's where I think he'll come in at (in 72 games), but he could easily match his big year in Carolina and hit 45 or more.

Adam Larsson – I have him for 35 points to lead all New Jersey defensemen. He's ready to take that next step and with the big contract he'll obviously be given every opportunity to do so. A sleeper for 40 – he had 20 points in the last 42 games.

Matt Dumba – In the Guide I have him at 34 points, but a great sleeper for 45. A lot of one-year league GMs figure he's a couple of years away from any significant points, but I think he's there right now.

 

Some names in that thread that I wouldn't go after (and why):

Nathan Beaulieu – I have him for 21 points and he's several years away from doing anything for your fantasy squad. He'll get there though, I believe in him. But right now his future role is being filled by Markov.

Shayne Gostisbehere – I love this prospect for the long term, but no way I take him if I need points in 2015-16. Because of his injury last year, I have him at 25% to make the team. He'll be called up a couple of times, but I'm thinking five or 10 games total. The 2016-17 season will be his big rookie year.

Matt Irwin – Not in any league, any format. In the Fantasy Guide I have him as the No.6 defenseman but I also assume he will have trouble holding off Joe Morrow and Colin Miller from moving up the depth chart. I project 22 points and little chance of any sleeper value for more.

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I hope you're enjoying this year's Fantasy Guide as well as the new-look site. My big issue on the weekend is the downloads section. It looks like about five percent of you are not seeing the download link for the Guide. Either you're not seeing any downloads at all (only receipts of the orders), or you see your older downloads but not the new one. I'm hoping that by end of day Monday, this will be fixed because in the meantime I've been emailing these readers the Guide. But regardless – everyone will be taken care of. And for this crisis, I'd rather you email me directly as opposed to using the site contact – I can organize it better and handle it faster (I'm at dobber at dobberhockey dot com).

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I plan to address some typos and minor updates today or tomorrow with an update, including some issues with hits and BLKS in the draft list, as well as the Advanced section of Winnipeg (half of those bullet points are from last year, ugh). And I'll be updating this guide every week or so until camp opens up, and then it will be daily.

Thank you everyone for being patient as we go through this badly-timed changeover (launch of the site was a week late). You've been tremendous, I've heard a lot of nice feedback and it genuinely eases my stress level!

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You can still get the Guide – and the Prospects Report – and the Midseason Guide – and next year's Playoff Draft Listall for just $10. Details are here, but don't miss out. A lot of people are taking advantage of this deal and to a man (or woman) they have told me that they love it.

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The Frozen Pool player links are still messy. Maybe improved a little, but still a mess. We're looking into it. DobberProspects also has a lot of broken links and we have a ton of updated content we need to post (we've been holding back until the changeover) so be on the lookout for that too.

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Here's another good one from the forum. Top 10 prospects to make the jump. Here are my Top 10 projected rookie scorers, per my numbers in the Guide:

1. Connor McDavid

2. Jack Eichel

3. Nikolaj Ehlers – For this one I can see him making the Jets and play the first 30 games on the fourth line getting nine minutes per game. But he'll be chipping in points here and there before taking on a more prominent role in the second half.

4. Sam Bennett – Almost guaranteed a second-line job. It's his to lose, so he's a pretty safe pick. Though if the Flames come down to earth in October, they may be quick to protect his confidence by sending him to junior.

5. Anthony Duclair – Another near-guarantee, though I don't think he'll get 40 points. He could, but I don't think he will.

6. Rocco Grimaldi – I have him in that 30 to 35-point range and I think he's a pretty safe bet for that. But he won't finish sixth in rookie scoring – there will be several 'sleepers' who will pass him. Who those sleepers are, well if I knew that I would win millions and just retire.

7. Sergei Plotnikov – A good risk/reward pick as he is going to get a shot on a scoring line for Pittsburgh. Odds are he'll fail, because these experiments tend to fail more than they succeed. But the 50-point upside and five-point downside, I think it's fair to call him in the middle (30 points).

8. Max Domi – Pretty much a lock to make the Coyotes and if they had a team that could score he would be a 50-point player. But is anyone on Arizona going to be a 50-point player?

9. Matt Puempel – Another player who should hover around 30 points. He may not make the team immediately, but I think he'll be an early call up.

10. Darnell Nurse – Along with Joonas Donskoi and Noah Hanifin, I have him in that 25- to 30-point range for the season ahead.

 

 

 

 

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
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Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
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Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MIN Players
20.0 MATS ZUCCARELLO MARCO ROSSI KIRILL KAPRIZOV
17.3 MARCUS JOHANSSON FREDERICK GAUDREAU MATT BOLDY
17.1 MARAT KHUSNUTDINOV RYAN HARTMAN MARCUS FOLIGNO

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