Friday, Aug. 7

Neil Parker

2015-08-07

Daniel Sedin - USA Today Sports Images

 

Daniel Sedin, Scott Hartnell and Anze Kopitar finished strong last season, but what is in store for 2015-16?

 

Continuing to find some fantasy topics to touch on, how about players who finished strong last season?

We'll call it fun with small sample sizes. Goal, point and game totals are from February 1 through the end of the regular season.

 

Daniel Sedin, Vancouver Canucks – 11 goals, 36 points over 35 games: After a disastrous 2013-14 showing, Sedin's strong finish landed him with 20 goals and 76 points for the year. He enters his age-35 season, though, so finishing somewhere between his past two seasons statistically is essentially a given. The only question is whether he is closer to last year's totals or his 13-14 marks. Top-line duty and a role with the No. 1 power-play unit will ensure he'll likely finish in the middle with the upside to approach last year's numbers. Don't sleep on the veteran if he slips into the middle rounds.

 

Scott Hartnell, Columbus Blue Jackets – 18 goals, 32 points over 34 games: It wasn't exactly an out-of-nowhere finish, as Hartnell had been quite consistent all season. His cross-category production cannot go unnoticed in rotisserie leagues, as he still is one of the premiere bangs for your buck. Perhaps he falls below 50 points, but it won't be by much. Still, he is going to play top-six minutes and likely on the No. 1 power-play unit, so banking on a guaranteed fall in points could prove to be ill-advised.

 

Kyle Turris, Ottawa Senators – 15 goals, 34 points over 34 games: Is there another jump in production ahead next season, or does Turris plateau as a 65-point man. Looking closer, too, a slow January (six points over 12 games) was Turris' only down month. He is the unquestioned-No. 1 center and showed tremendous chemistry with emerging-star Mark Stone. Those expecting that jump in points shouldn't reach for Turris, though. Consider it a bonus of him falling to you in the late middle rounds.

 

Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche – 13 goals, 29 points over 32 games: The Colorado captain started slow and finished strong, expect him to have a similar season next year with more consistency. Landeskog pays his fantasy bills with a high-shot volume and tipping the scales in penalty minutes. While there is room for offensive growth as he enters his prime, it is unlikely Landeskog ever flirts with point-per-game production.

 

Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers – six goals, 28 points over 35 games: Through the first four players, the projection has been to be careful not to overdraft, in the case of Huberdeau, reaching for the 22-year-old winger should reward. It is unlikely he ever emerges as a high-end goal scorer, but he could flirt with 25 tallies as soon as this season and should approach 45 assists. The arrow is pointing straight up here.

 

Ryan O'Reilly, Buffalo Sabres – eight goals, 28 points over 32 games: In new digs, O'Reilly will be an interesting fantasy asset this fall, especially with all the offseason drama. Plus, the entire team is somewhat of a guessing game. The educated guess here says O'Reilly settles in between the results of his past two seasons with 20-25 goals and 55-65 points. Without winger eligibility, O'Reilly likely isn't a worthy rotisserie target, though.

 

Tomas Plekanec, Montreal Canadiens – 13 goals, 27 points over 34 games: The veteran has been a consistent goal scorer throughout his career, as he has only missed 20 in a non-lockout season once over the past eight years. The assists are what has been the difference maker for his point totals. Additionally, Plekanec plays difficult minutes. The 20-25 goals are cushy, but 35 assists aren't a guarantee. After all, he wasn't on pace for 35 during the lockout-shortened year and has fell short of the mark the past two seasons.

 

Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings – five goals, 26 points over 33 games: Simply put, he defers shooting duty off to Marian Gaborik. It isn't a bad thing for his point total, but his fantasy stock took a real beating this past season with his lack of goals (16) and shots (134), especially considering he doesn't take penalty minutes, either. One of the safest picks in points-only formats, but Kopitar might be overrated in rotisserie leagues.

 

Rick Nash, New York Rangers – 13 goals, 25 points over 32 games: A slow March (three goals, eight points over 15 games) was the only blemish on Nash's resume last season. Removing the tough month, he posted a 0.95 points per game and 0.61 goals per game for the season. So what to make of Nash? One, he isn't an elite point producer, but he is one of the safest bets to post 35 goals and 250 shots in the league. So take the discount and run if he falls. He likely won't last long enough to return his owner profit, though.

 

Jaden Schwartz, St. Louis Blues – 11 goals, 25 points over 34 games: You'll hear me toot the Schwartz breakout whistle again. He is more valueable in points-only formats, as he doesn't push the needle with penalty minutes or shots. He also didn't receive any significant boost from power-play production last season, as he only had eight goals and 16 points with the man advantage. He should receive more power-play opportunities in 2015-16, which makes him a nice bet to take another step forward and approach 70 points.

 

David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – six goals, 21 points over 32 games: Over a full season, Pastrnak's finish projects to 15 goals and 53 points, and it seems within reach. He'll have to earn top-six minutes and power-play time, but don't be surprised if he shifts up and down the lineup some and falls short of 20 goals and 50 points. There is upside here, but a breakout-offensive season is unlikely in 2015-16.

 

Nail Yakupov, Edmonton Oilers – nine goals, 21 points over 31 games: Be ready to grab shares in the late middle rounds of drafts, as there will come a point when no one with Yakupov's offensive skills and prime situation will be available. New management, new coach and a new opportunity will help Yakupov more than any other Oiler, and he should post his first 20-goal, 50-point campaign.

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***

 

Jiri Hudler (17 goals, 35 points over 31 games) and Sean Monahan (15 goals, 30 points over 31 games) were covered in significant detail by the Cliff'miester yesterday, so I neglected them in the above discussion.

And while I agree with Mike's assessment, I don't have a negative outlook for the trio. The Flames improved their supporting cast, and Hudler has always had high-end offensive potential. Monahan is a budding superstar, and an injury might be the only thing capable of slowing down John Gaudreau. Banking on regression from the youngsters could prove to be ill-advised, and Hudler isn't going to fall off the map.

Although, Mike said he was more worried about them improving, which is legit.

Each individual draft will dictate a lot, and Mike was working with the thought they'll be overvalued, which isn't out of the question. I suspect they're all pretty safe bets to return similar statistics with the upside for another level of production from Monahan and Gaudreau.

That defense corps is in the running for the best in the league — if it hasn't already been unanimously handed the title — and will make life easy for the forwards. Calgary's effectiveness advancing the puck from the defensive to offensive zone should improve, and their low Corsi numbers and high PDO numbers should balance out, somewhat.

Plus, and this is difficult to quantify but remains prominent, Monahan has an excellent release and shooting arsenal, and Gaudreau is smooth. These aren't Reilly Smith or David Desharnais types.

Again, this isn't an attack on Mike, at all, because expecting huge gains and drafting as such likely won't pan out well. However, I'm not sure the trio will be overvalued, and we should welcome top-line talents from an improved team to our fake clubs with open arms. When you're well prepared, you can identify value and draft well, and when you draft well, your season goes well.

Well, well.

 

***

 

A few news items …

 

Obviously, Patrick Kane is receiving headlines, and similar to the Mike Richards story last month, I'm not interested to jumping to conclusions or reaching to present a hot take.

More details will come to the surface, and like Richards, Kane hasn't been arrested. Also, it is worth noting NHL.com doesn't have a story on the incident.

 

 

Matt Cullen signed a one-year, $800,000 contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins Thursday. It is a nice grab for Pittsburgh. Cullen still battles and has fleeting offensive spurts. Additionally, he is capable of stepping up into a higher role on the depth chart in spells, and during his best years, he played all three forward positions.

It is a great add, but there is no reason to draft Cullen in the majority of fantasy leagues.

 

***

 

And it is Friday, so enjoy your weekend folks. 

6 Comments

  1. kidd 2015-08-07 at 07:31

    thank you for the 'next' and 'previous' links! so much easier to catch up on the last 4 days :o)

  2. Allister 2015-08-07 at 14:21

    Do you have anything on female fantasy owners???

  3. mick 2015-08-07 at 15:00

    Great write up,

    I would lean to closer to last year numbers for Sedin – the 13-14 numbers were Torts related.

    I think you are bang on with Hudler and mono as well, they will have Gio back plus now they have Hamilton.  Mono will just get better IMO

     

    Hard to believe the story about Kane, you would think the guy would have his pick of gals to play with, likely some jealous broad.

    • isle b. 2015-08-07 at 19:01

      Agreed. We all know the Sedins aren't getting younger, but that Torts season was an anomaly. Neither may challenge for the Art Ross anymore, but I still think of them in the 70-point zone as opposed to the 60-point zone.

  4. Jason Mouland 2015-08-07 at 21:09

    Hudler fell to me at 142 overall in a recent inaugural dynasty cap league. 

  5. Tom Collins 2015-08-08 at 00:45

    Something to keep in mind with Huberdeau is that his streak to end the season coincided with Jagr joinng the Panthers. They had great chemistry together. 

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