Libin’s must read series continues with a look at the cream of the crop among RWs in the West……….

The focus of this week’s column turns to the best Right Wingers of the Western Conference. The four key criteria for this week are ice time (particularly even strength and power play usage), linemates (lining up with better forwards usually means more production), shot rate (more shots means less chance of a drastic drop-off in production), and positive trends.

Honorable mentions: Nail Yakupov started to come around last year, and the arrival of Connor McDavid means there are two quality centers in Edmonton; but Yakupov has yet to show enough to crack the top 10. Marian Hossa is a well proven two-way stud, but one who’s on the tail end of his storied career; after all, last year was the first in a decade that his shooting percentage fell below 11%; which looks like the first sign of steady decline.

10. Jarome Iginla

Iginla is the model of consistency, as the only campaign since 1998-99 where he failed to tally 29+ goals was the strike shortened 2012/13 season. His shooting percentage last year was high, but he has been in that territory before and is often above 12%. It is disconcerting that he took fewer than 200 shots in 2014-15, although that could be a result of Colorado not shooting much in general (they had the fourth fewest SOG per game as a team in 2014-15). Fewer shots means that Iginla needs to keep scoring on a higher percentage of his shots to remain in the 30 goal neighborhood. Given his age, and the competition for a spot here, if Iginla stays below 200 shots again, it’s unlikely we’d see him remain on the list.

9. Tyler Toffoli

There are two significant factors working in Toffoli’s favor and that put him here. The first is that he is trending up in a big way, as 2014-15 saw him take 200 shots and a benefit from a two minute per game ice time increase in only his second full season. He most likely will not see the same bumps this year, although even smaller increases will still translate to further improved production. The second factor is the addition of Milan Lucic should cement Toffoli on Jeff Carter’s wing. That is great news, as Toffoli had 28 of his 36 even strength points playing alongside Carter. The less time they spend apart, the more Toffoli will produce.

8. James Neal

If you believe James Neal is the 37 point player he was last year, that means you also think he will get four points on the power play once again. James Neal at even strength last year was not that far off his point production from his years in Pittsburgh. There, he was usually good for 2.3 points per 60 minutes whereas last year he was at 1.8. The difference, as stated, was his lack of power play production. And although certainly part of that was due to Neal seeing a minute less of PP ice time compared to when he was a Pen, the other factor was he took 40 fewer shots and his shooting percentage dropped to 6.9% from 15.9%. He will not produce like he did in Pittsburgh, but a return to at least somewhere in that vicinity is the basis for his spot on this list.

7. Jiri Hudler

Hudler is lower on this list because a repeat of his outstanding shooting fortunes of last year seems unlikely. Hudler finished with a personal shooting percentage of 19.7% and an on-ice shooting percentage of 13.9%, making him a great pick for regression. He plays with quality linemates in Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, so the regression hit should not be as bad as it otherwise could be. There are also some positives, as Hudler shot more last year than he has at any point in his NHL career. Last season also marked his return to three minutes of power play time per game. That all adds up to a likely 60+ point season, even if another 75 point campaign is probably out of reach.

6. Filip Forsberg

Forsberg started the year exceptionally hot, but was not able to maintain his early rate of production over the course of a full season. His numbers by the end were reasonable, as he scored on 11% of his shots and with an on-ice shooting percentage of 9.9%. A full season with those numbers is entirely realistic, meaning another 60 point season is not out of reach especially if he keeps playing more than 17 minutes per game. Playing with Mike Ribeiro does not hurt either, as Rebeiro is a pass-first center and, per Ryan Stimson’s pass tracking study, generates the second most shots in the league from his passes, meaning the 235 shots Forsberg took last year should be sustainable.

5. Jordan Eberle

Eberle is the big wild card among the ten, as with the arrival of Connor McDavid he could explode. Even without playing with this year’s number one pick, Eberle found great chemistry last year with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. That should put Eberle in excellent position to produce significant points regardless of which highly skilled young center he plays with. This is really a no lose situation for Eberle, as last year with Nugent-Hopkins the Oilers averaged 2.98 goals per 60 minutes at even strength. For Eberle to take the next step, however, he does need to start shooting more, and breaking the 200 shot mark would be a good start.

4. Blake Wheeler

In multi-cat leagues Wheeler is a known stud who puts up numbers in almost every key category. Since 2011/12 Wheeler has received first line duty, playing a minimum of 18.8 minutes per game. Last season also marked the first where he exceeded three minutes per game on the power play. Wheeler has been very consistent over the last three non-lockout seasons, with 60+ points in each and missing only four games over the last four campaigns. He is the epitome of a safe bet for 60 points, especially as long as he continues to put up 200+ shots each year.

3. Corey Perry

Last year it would have been blasphemous not to have Corey Perry in the top two of this list; but at 29, Perry’s highest scoring days are behind him per Steve Burtch’s work on when a player’s scoring peaks. The days of Perry threatening to put up 100 points are over, especially as his minutes have declined to 18 per games from their high of 22 minutes five years ago. Of course he’s still elite – no question. And he should bounce back in one key area – the power play, as after years of four or more points per 60 minutes on the power play last year saw Perry’s production in that area cut nearly in half. That screams fluke, and alone is a good enough reason to expect Perry to push 70 points this year.

2. Patrick Kane

Patrick Kane arguably deserves the top spot on this list; however, his looming legal troubles served to break a tie as it creates a greater potential for missed games. Kane’s edge is based on the fact that he plays 20 minutes per game year in and year out. It further helps that Jonathan Toews and Marcus Kruger take the toughest matchups and toughest zone starts respectively. That means Kane gets offensive-centric minutes, and as such is routinely put in the best situations to produce. It should also help that this year he will finally have a legitimate center who can keep up with him in Artem Anisimov. At 25, Kane is in his prime; and if he can manage to put together a full season, a scoring title is not out of the question.

1. Vladimir Tarasenko

Tarasenko made a huge leap forward last year largely due to a tremendous boost in his shot rate as he nearly doubled the previous year’s SOG total. The best part about it is there is still room for Tarasenko to grow, as the truly elite shooters in the NHL take 30-40 shots more than he did last year. While Tarasenko is not likely to get much more ice time than the 17.7 total minutes per game or the 2.8 power play minutes per game he received last year, he could get more shots just based on securing his spot as the focal point of the Blues’ offense. Furthermore, with David Backes taking the toughest minutes and Tarasenko getting great zone starts, he is in a plum position to continue his dynamic offensive production.