A Kopitar bounce-back, draft value for Mark Scheifele, and sitting, waiting, and wishing for Jack Johnson. 

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For those expecting Neil Parker to deliver his Ramblings today, he is on vacation in Toronto, and was fortunate to take in a couple Blue Jays games. We are all jealous, Neil. In the meantime, I will be filling in today for Mr. Parker.

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There is something to be said about consistency in fantasy hockey, and fantasy sports in general. The reason Henrik Lundqvist is drafted pretty much every year among the top three goalies isn’t that he always finishes as one of the top three goalies, but he hasn’t tanked a full year in a long time. Not long ago in these Ramblings, I brought up how Brad Marchand was quietly one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL, and how he’s a safe draft pick in the middle of a draft. He probably won’t explode to be a top-25 forward, but it’s unlikely he finishes very far outside the top-75 forwards, if not inside of them.

Anze Kopitar was one of these players. Last year alone, in a one-year league, it’s almost a certainty that he was an early-to-mid second round pick in 12-team leagues, and possibly slipped in at the very end of the first round.

I mean, from 2009-2015, Kopitar was one just three players to have 20+ goals, 70+ points, and 200+ shots in each of the four 82-game season contained in that stretch. The other two were Steven Stamkos and Alex Ovechkin. Considering he was a double-digit plus in each of those years, and had at least 20 power play points in three of those four, this was as consistent as it got.

Kopitar cratered hard last year. He finished as a minus player (though to be fair, the 2014-2015 Kings may have been the unluckiest team in recent regular season memory), had just 134 shots on goal (59 fewer than his previous career low, which came in his rookie year), and failed to crack the 20 goal mark for the first time in his career (again, in 82-game seasons).

There are two ways to look at this this season. Either Kopitar, who is just 28-years-old and is playing for a contract, bounces back from a year where his whole team had a down year, or it’s the start of a decline for a player that usually comes once they reach their late-twenties.

I am betting on a Kopitar bounce-back. He is almost always healthy, still plays on a very good team, and shouldn’t decline that sharply at this age. He is currently being drafted outside the top-30 players in Yahoo leagues, and is ranked just inside the top-50 at ESPN. It is not really a huge discount considering last season, but being able to grab him at the end of the third round or start of the fourth seems like a better bet than guys being drafted around him like Zach Parise and Daniel Sedin.

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One guy I am not hearing much about – I know, there is still a lot of time left before drafts really get going – is Mark Scheifele. Last year, he had as many goals as Jonathan Huberdeau (15) and more assists (34) than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (32).

I think one thing that could help Scheifele is some consistent line mates. Last year, not a single Winnipeg forward was on Scheifele’s line for half the season. The year before, the only player to play half the year with Scheifele was Michael Frolik, and he’s gone. Coaches like to talk about having duos of players they can lean on, and then adding a third wheel as they see fit. Scheifele hasn’t been afforded that opportunity yet.

The nice thing about the non-hype around Scheifele this draft year is that it presents a nice value on draft day. The centre position is deep, but that’s precisely what makes Scheifele a good value. Why take Derick Brassard or Derek Stepan in the seventh or eighth round when Scheifele is available, likely with similar production, in the tenth or eleventh round?

This is a player with a pedigree, and so far in his young career, has had good production. The ice time should be there, and with consistent line mates, I think this is the year Scheifele starts to fulfill his potential. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he finished between 55-60 points.

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The Columbus blue line has been in the news recently. Nothing serious, just that general manager Jarmo Kekalainen doesn’t care what anyone thinks about their blue line. He is right, of course. Outside of his own organization, he shouldn’t care.

Fantasy owners do, though. And one thing that is kind of a mystery to me is where Jack Johnson is being drafted. I get some people are waiting to grab David Savard later, but one thing to consider is this: one area that indicates regression is the number of second assists a player gets. This was written about years ago by Eric Tulsky, but still doesn’t get much traction. I recommend reading it, but in essence, there is very little year-over-year correlation for second assists in the NHL. That means finishing high in that regard one year likely indicates an incoming decline. Fewer second assists means fewer overall points, and that’s what we’re here for in fantasy.

Last year, David Savard had about 79-percent of his five-on-five assists as second assists; Jack Johnson had just 63-percent. Even with that, Johnson had seven more points last year (40) than the year before (33). That was made up entirely of a bounce-back in even strength goals (after he shot his second-lowest rate of his career at 3.4-percent) and four more power play assists.

It would seem a lot of people are banking on two things this year in Columbus: first that Savard overtakes Johnson as the go-to defenceman, which I don’t see happening. Second, that Johnson’s 2014-2015 was a mirage and he will regress. As long as Johnson stays on that top power play unit – and I don’t see why he wouldn’t – I think he gets close to 40 points again. Last year was about normal for him in goals with eight, and getting to 30 assists should be doable. If Columbus is better defensively than last year, Johnson could be a solid value as a fourth, possibly even fifth, defenceman on fantasy rosters.

This isn’t to say Savard has no value. I do think he is a productive defenceman this year. But it seems like the prevailing thought is someone is going to cut into Johnson’s time, and he will regress from last year. I don’t see the former happening, and the latter, even if there is some, I think it will be minimal. Frozen Pool shows us the common denominator last year on the top power play unit’s blue line was Johnson, and with James Wisniewski gone, he could see even more power play time, which could mitigate some efficiency decline.

Jack Johnson and your fantasy team: better together (I'm so sorry). 

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Small sample size alert, but out of 330 forwards with at least 1000 five-on-five minutes played over the last two seasons, Brandon Pirri is 16^th in goals per 60 minutes. It makes him one of just 25 forwards to score at least one five-on-five goal every 60 minutes over the last two years. In 70 games with the Panthers alone, he has 29 goals. This is important because he’s going outside the first 13 or 14 rounds in a 12-team league on Yahoo, at least in early drafts, and that presents a great value opportunity.

He had a high shooting percentage last year, but he did the year before as well, and his shot volume skyrocketed (which helps explain 22 goals in 49 games). He has a decent pedigree, too, with back-to-back 20+ goal season as a 20- and 21-year old in the AHL. In fact, he led the AHL in scoring with 75 points in 2012-2013 as a 21-year old. He just couldn’t crack that stacked Chicago lineup, and now has a chance to flourish in Florida.

There is no need to get crazy here. In a 12-team league with 15 starters (9 F, 4 D, 2 G), he can be a final forward or early bench spot depending on how the draft goes. If he can crack the Florida top-six to play with either of Nick Bjugstad or Aleksander Barkov, I think Pirri is going to be a very good value on draft day.

*Last year’s stats from Hockey Abstract. Year-over-year stats from Hockey Analysis and Hockey Reference. Minor league numbers from the official AHL website.