Laidlaw returns with thoughts on Huberdeau, Grabner and the Leafs’ right wing.

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I’ll start off by discussing the Michael Grabner acquisition by the Leafs. Michael Clifford already covered it yesterday but I’ll toss my take out there anyhow.

I think Grabner becomes a huge sleeper candidate in Toronto. He’s no Phil Kessel and Mike Babcock may not have room for Grabner in his system but there’s potential here. He scored 30 goals in a season back in 2010-11 skating for a bunk Islanders team. He skated 15 minutes a night that season alongside a couple of budding studs in Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen.

Grabner did most of his work off the rush that season and offers the same type of game-breaking potential in Toronto for what will no doubt be a bad Leafs team. Assuming Babcock let’s Grabner off the leash he could potentially fill the Kessel slot on the top line alongside Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk. Again, Grabner’s no Kessel but he has a similar game-breaking dimension. If the minutes are there could a second 30-goal season happen? The potential is there.

Grabner is also another body to get in the way of William Nylander making the Leafs. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Nylander had nice numbers in the AHL when he came over for the second half but I can’t think of too many players who suffered from too much seasoning at a lower level. It can just be a bit annoying as a fantasy owner. The Leafs are in no rush, however so this should be seen as a plus.

Grabner is also a body that gets in the way of rejuvenation projects like Joffrey Lupul, Brad Boyes, and PA Parenteau. If I’m grading these guys for fantasy it goes as follows:

Empty roster slot>Lupul>Grabner>Parenteau>Boyes

I’m kidding about the empty slot by the way as I do think there is potential here. But what are the odds the Leafs are such a tire fire that none of these guys has fantasy value? There’s at least a 25% chance.

I like Lupul the most because when healthy he’s been productive so I’d gamble on health before counting on pixie dust getting sprinkled on one of the other three. You have to figure Lupul gets first shot at the big minutes.

Grabner’s next because we need to see what he can do away from Jack Capuano.

Parenteau has been a flop in a couple of destinations now and has only excelled alongside top tier centermen. The Leafs have been looking for one of those since the traded Mats Sundin so Parenteau is a serious long shot.

Boyes is just on a tryout so he may not even make the club at this point. I had him making the team until Grabner arrived. Tough sledding ahead.

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I’m not really into any of the assets the Islanders picked up here. A few of the prospects might turn into NHL players but not a ton of fantasy value. Really, what the Islanders acquired was some cap relief. Not that they needed it. Perhaps salary relief is the more appropriate term here.

The Islanders did ink Steve Bernier to a one-year deal after the trade was complete so he’ll take Grabner’s spot on the fourth line. Bernier has little to no fantasy value here though he did manage 32 points for the Devils last season. He shuffles well down the lineup here.

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Jonathan Huberdeau signed a two-year bridge deal yesterday worth $3.25 million annually. After the bargain the Islanders got on Brock Nelson the day before Huberdeau’s deal fell much more in line with what we are seeing these days on bridge deals. The third year is so rarely getting handed out and typically the money doesn’t reach bargain prices.

Of course, there are reasons Huberdeau signed a more favourable deal. He has more pedigree and has underlying numbers that suggest he’s ready to break out. Nelson’s in more of a situation where you want to sell high. Well, sell as high as one can on a guy coming off a 42-point season.

Huberdeau’s five-on-five scoring places him among the elite. Whether that results in a big breakout or not remains to be seen but I’ve got him pegged for 60 points. The only issue with that sort of projection is how reliant Huberdeau is on others to finish. He’s unlikely to get even 25 goals at this point since he just isn’t that kind of shooter. And we’ve seen big passers struggle without a finisher in tow before.

Still, I can’t shake how damned productive Huberdeau was once Jaromir Jagr arrived last season. The effect Jagr might have on that whole Panther team could be huge. They are a young team, loaded with talent. There could be an eruption of fantasy value one of these years.

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Word is the Blackhawks are nearing an extension with Brent Seabrook. I suppose this doesn’t completely lock Seabrook in long term but you have to figure it does. The Blackhawks moved a lot of talent this summer but one guy they didn’t deal was Seabrook. There has to be a reason for that.

The Blackhawks actually weren’t a tremendous team to draw from for fantasy purposes last season and they may not be again this season but it stands to reason they’ll at least be a decent team, which means there’s value in Seabrook locking in as a top pairing defenseman for years to come.

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We should have a better timeline on Pavel Datsyuk next week as it was announced he’ll visit with his surgeon next week following off-season ankle surgery. I have Datsyuk playing 38 games at about a point-per-game level. He’s still money but it can be tough investing in injured players. If you’ve got the roster space and the patience he could be a huge asset for the second half.

Conceivably, the whole Red Wings roster could make for a good buy low as the season wears on because you know they are loaded once Datsyuk returns. I could see them as the highest scoring team from January on. Something to keep in mind.

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As always, there were some gems in Elliotte Friedman’s latest 30 Thoughts:

5. Doughty, who skated 140 more minutes than anyone in the NHL last season, said he was told in his exit meetings the Kings want him to drop from 29 to 25 minutes per game. A noble idea, but we’ll see if Darryl Sutter and John Stevens can hold back when crunch time comes, especially now that Voynov is gone.

It really makes you wonder if backing off on the minutes might actually make Drew Doughty a more productive fantasy player. Doughty’s best season came when he skated just 25 minutes a night. But over four of those minutes came on the power play. Only two players in the NHL skated more than four minutes on the power play last season (Erik Karlsson and Keith Yandle). Trimming Doughty’s workload while also boosting his power play time seems unfeasible so don’t count on a resurgence.

Instead, the takeaway is that there will be more opportunities for the likes of Alec Martinez and Christian Ehrhoff. They are three and four on the depth chart behind Doughty and Jake Muzzin but they can score at a 30-point rate in those roles if the Kings offense rebounds.

I don’t have much hope left for Ehrhoff after his miserable run in Pittsburgh last season but Martinez should benefit from more minutes even if those minutes are tougher. His real-time stats like hits and blocked shots will at least see a healthy spike if not the scoring numbers.

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Did you see this quote from Kris Letang the other day?

“My only goal is to play 82 games,” said Letang, who has reached that number only one other time in his career back in the 2010-11 season. “That’s my main goal. I just want to help the team all year long and not just part of it.”

That’s a great sentiment but we need to see it before we can believe it. Still, I have Letang for 60 points in 64 games. What can I say? I’m bullish on the Penguins’ offense. He’d be something else in 82 games though.

I maintain Letang works out way too hard. I think it’s a double-edged sword for some of these guys. They can’t reach their full potential without working like mad men in the off-season but would being 80% as good over a lot more games have more value? Tough to say.

Obviously, Letang has had some unlikely injuries, like having a freaking hole in his heart but at a certain point you have to cool it with the overtraining when it’s clearly not yielding durability. It feels like since Letang is so often in a state of injury or injury recovery that he never actually has the chance to let his body just adapt.

I’ve mentioned it before in this spot but when I think about Letang’s injuries and his off-season training and then I think about Kessel training with Gary Roberts this summer, I have pause. I’m not sure Kessel needs the “best hockey trainer in the world”. He’s produced just fine without him. I won’t beat that dead horse too much though. I really just hope they all have big seasons. Even if I own none of them this year, I like huge numbers.

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Give my debut article for Sportsnet a read. I take a look at where to draft Connor McDavid in one-year leagues this fall.

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Check out Dobber’s latest for Puck Daddy focusing on some key training camp battles.

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Daniel Carcillo announced his retirement from hockey yesterday in a touching piece for The Players’ Tribune. He discusses his future plans to help NHLers transition to the next phase of their lives as part of a tribute to the late Steve Montador. Worth your time.

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How do you feel about the new Islanders jerseys? Esthetically speaking, I’m a fan. Black and white always works. My issue is that the Kings already have that colour scheme on lockdown. In the NBA the Nets got away with those colours upon their move to Brooklyn because no one else had that scheme. Teams will never stop rebranding to make money but I’m a nostalgic type of person and I like when a team sticks with one logo and one colour scheme for years. Allow it to reach timeless brilliance!

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Thanks for reading. You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.