Letang has more fantasy value than Hedman – and it's surprisingly decisive. Rick Roos explains…

This week our combatants are two top producing fantasy d-men (Victor Hedman, Kris Letang) whose Yahoo draft positions for 2015-16 just happen to be nearly identical (54.4 for Hedman, 54.9 for Letang). Let’s see who’s shaping up to be the better producer for 2015-16 and beyond – Cage Match starts now!

Career Path and Contract/Cap Status

Hedman was the 2nd overall pick in 2009 and in the NHL full time that same season. After he was unable to top even 26 points in his any of his first three campaigns, there were whispers Hedman might not be able to fulfill lofty expectations. But Hedman upped his scoring to a 37 point full season pace in 2012-13, then exploded in 2013-14 for 55 points in 75 games, with 35 coming in his final 42 contests. Last season saw him pick up where he left off, with seven points in five October games before missing nearly all of November and then failing to post double digits in points during any of the next four full months of the season. Nevertheless, he managed to finish with 38 points in 59 games, for a 53 point full season scoring pace, which would’ve tied him for 8th in d-man scoring.

Letang was a second round pick (62nd overall) in 2005 and with the Pens for good by 2007-08. Letang also didn’t produce at a 0.5 points per game rate in any of his first three full seasons, before breaking out with 50 in 82 games in 2010-11. Since then, Letang has scored at an amazing 66 point full season pace, although the asterisk is that came via 156 points in 192 games, which represents only 65% of the 294 regular season contests that played by the Pens during that four season time frame. But despite all the missed games, his 156 points still ranked 11th among rearguards during that period.

According to Cap Friendly, Hedman will count $4M against the cap through 2016-17 (before becoming a UFA), while Letang is on year two of an eight year deal with a heftier $7.25M cap hit per season.

Ice Time

This paints a bad picture for Hedman’s PP Ice Time, which is also underscored by the fact that, according to Frozen Pool, Hedman was deployed for only 41.9% of Tampa’s PP time last season and just 44.5% in 2013-14 (compared to 68.8% and 71.8% for Letang). Also, if Hedman isn’t receiving top PP minutes by now, is there any reason to think that will change? With Tampa winning, chances are they won’t fix what isn’t broken; and that likely will mean continued low PP Ice Time for him. And to make matters worse, what happens if one or more of Anthony DeAngelo (Dobber’s #1 d-man prospect), Nikita Nesterov (ranked #11) and Slater Koekkoek (ranked #22) push for PP Ice Time?

Letang’s PP Ice Time was actually a bit lower than I’d have guessed, as I figured he’d be above 4:00 per game for each campaign. But as it turns out, no other d-man played in 35+ games in each of the last four seasons while receiving 3:42 or more per season on the PP, so he’s still in a class of his own.

On the other hand, I expected Hedman to be saddled with far more SH Ice Time than Letang. Not only was I incorrect, but Mike Johnston taking over the coaching helm for Pittsburgh in 2014-15 led to Letang receiving a chunk of additional SH Ice Time. Yet sure enough Letang managed to score at a 64 point pace last season, which means unless he was unsustainably lucky (we’ll check on that below) he should be able to maintain a 60-65 point full season scoring pace going forward even if this added SH Ice Time is here to stay.

Secondary Categories

No one should be surprised about Letang’s data for PP Points and SOG, as other than Erik Karlsson he’s regarded by most as the purest “offensive defenseman” in the NHL today. And Karlsson also happens to be the only other rearguard who averaged 2.71 or more SOG in each of these four seasons.

Meanwhile, at not even one PPP per every five games in either of the past two campaigns, Hedman is in a vicious cycle where he doesn’t produce with the man advantage, leading to him not being deployed as much on the PP, leading to him continuing not to produce, etc., etc. At this point it might be that Tampa is content with saving Hedman’s minutes for situations when he’s truly needed, and opting to lean on other d-men (notably Anton Stralman) for PP minutes and production.

As such, Hedman probably won’t see his PP output rise any time soon, which in turn makes it all but impossible for him to tally more than 55 points. Want proof to support that statement? How about the fact that in the last 20 years only one defenseman scored more than 55 points in a season without having posted one PPP per every five games. The one was Duncan Keith in 2009-10 (69 points, 16 PPP in 82 games), and that season has been shown to be essentially an outlier. Not that 55 points in a season is anything to sneeze at, but Hedman owners can’t be happy if indeed that’s his realistic points ceiling.

Surprisingly – at least to me – both players were comparable in Hits and Blocked Shots in most seasons, and had similar PIM when looking at the four seasons in the aggregate. But whereas Letang’s numbers were up in each area for 2014-15 to mark his highest totals in these four seasons, Hedman’s 2014-15 PIM and Hits averages were the lowest of these four campaigns, with his Hits in particular having shrunk by nearly 50% from 2011-12. And although Hedman’s Blocked Shots were up from their low point in 2013-14, his average in 2014-15 still was his second lowest during these four years.

Letang’s improved PIM, Hits and Blocked Shots outputs for 2014-15 should be sustainable because they weren’t much higher than in past seasons, plus they came under new coach Johnston, so chances are this will be the “new normal” for Letang. And to emphasize the impressiveness of Letang’s combination of points production, PIM, Hits, and Blocked Shots, since nhl.com began tracking Hits and Blocked Shots in 2005-06, no d-man has posted 55+ points, 150+ Hits, 125+ Blocked Shots, and 80+ PIM in the same season– not Shea Weber, not Dion Phaneuf, not Zdeno Chara. Yet last season, Letang had 54 points, 131 Hits, 117 Blocked Shots, and 79 PIM……in only 69 games!!! Long story short, don’t pigeonhole Letang as solely a one-dimensional point producer – he’s a legitimate multi-cat force.

Luck-Based Metrics

Their PDO/SPSV values are pretty normal; and although their 5×5 and 5×4 IPPs have varied year to year, Hedman’s combined IPP held steady from 2013-14 to 2014-15 while Letang’s have been 95-105 for the last three seasons. Before we trick ourselves into thinking Letang’s IPPs could improve (after all, John Carlson’s were above 130 last season), we have to keep in mind Letang is in a “good news, bad news” situation where he’s on a Pens team that scores tons of goals, yet with players like Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, and Phil Kessel, there are only so many points to go around.

The only glaring number is Hedman’s 61.0% OZ% from last season. While the fact that it’s so high is in part a testament to his skill and that of his team, the reality is it pretty much cannot go any higher. This provides yet another basis to conclude Hedman won’t be likely to exceed 55 points in a season.

Injuries and Scoring Impact

Letang is a band-aid boy – plain and simple. In fact, he might be the player most poolies would name as the band-aid boy for rearguards. What’s interesting, however, is although Letang only played in 72% of Pens games in the past six seasons, Hedman didn’t fare much better, at just 85%.

And here’s the thing – 72% of Letang will score more than 85% of Hedman. Hedman’s full season scoring pace over the past two seasons was 57 points. Since Letang projects to score at a 65 point pace, let’s say he only plays 72% of each season, which means 59 games. For those other 23 games, you should be able to plug in a replacement d-man, whether from the waiver wire or your roster. Let’s assume that player scores at a 0.5 points per game pace, which means two points for every five games. That would translate to eleven points in the 23 games Letang misses. Couple that with Letang’s expected 47 points (i.e., 72% of his 65 point full season pace), and you get 58 points, which still beats Hedman’s best.

Of course it’s not that simple – in all likelihood you wouldn’t be able to sub in the replacement d-man for all games that Letang misses, you could also replace Hedman when he’s injured, etc. But the point is nevertheless clear that even a band-aid boy version of an average Letang could realistically produce more than Hedman’s ideal.

Who Wins?

If you’ve read this far, you shouldn’t be surprised at the ultimate outcome. Letang easily wins this match in all formats except salary cap leagues, and even then only until Hedman inks a new comparable deal prior to 2017-18.

While I generally try to avoid absolute statements in this column, the data presents a pretty compelling case that Hedman has reached his points ceiling. In short, he’s a longshot to eclipse 55 points and might have a future ceiling closer to 50, what with his own injury issues and PP shortcomings, plus the reality that his OZ% is already maxed out. Those of you in keeper leagues, it might be time to start at least listening to offers for Hedman, while if you can somehow get your hands on Letang for a good price I’d encourage you to do so.