Taking a look at the Western Conference forwards. Buy, sell or hold? (Part 2 – Avs, Oilers, Stars)

Real or Imagined: Forwards Part 2 (2015)

The second part of this series focusing on forwards will feature three teams because the Oilers and Dallas. The Stars provide a good example of why a player who takes a ton of shots is always a good bet. The ability to get a lot of shots is a much more repeatable skill than the ability to score on high percentage of those shots. While general skill does influence shooting percentage there is also greater variance regardless of skill. Thus the skepticism that a player coming off a season with a career high shooting percentage will be able to repeat those numbers.

As always the recommendations are for this year only.

Colorado

Player	GP	TOI	PP TOI	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Blake Comeau	34	16:43	0:56	5	9	0	11.63	9.24	1.26	1.00	Hold
Matt Duchene	34	19:11	3:10	16	12	8	17.98	9.49	2.62	2.65	Hold/ Soft Sell
Jarome Iginla	34	16:59	3:10	9	8	6	11.11	9.35	2.38	2.32	Hold/Sell
Nathan MacKinnon	34	20:16	3:32	10	19	8	9.52	10.25	3.09	3.24	Hold
Cody McLeod	34	10:38	0:10	5	3	1	13.51	13.67	1.09	0.97	Hold
Jack Skille	34	8:51	0:01	4	4	0	9.30	9.76	1.26	1.24	Hold
Carl Soderberg	34	17:28	2:02	5	17	6	7.25	10.11	2.03	1.88	Hold
Mikhail Grigorenko	30	11:18	0:58	1	10	1	4.76	13.29	0.70	0.73	Buy/Hold
Gabriel Landeskog	30	19:49	3:00	8	17	5	10.13	9.88	2.63	2.20	Hold
John Mitchell	23	15:36	1:12	7	2	0	22.58	9.63	1.35	1.74	Hold
Alex Tanguay	23	16:51	3:01	2	7	0	9.52	10.36	0.91	1.04	Hold/Buy
Andreas Martinsen	18	12:07	0:03	2	3	0	9.52	13.58	1.17	1.17	Sell
Dennis Everbeg	15	8:59	0:01	0	0	0	0	3.70	0.60	0.60	Waive
Chris Wagner	24	8:30	0:01	3	0	0	10.00	4.50	1.25	0.76	Hold
Ben Street	7	7:35	0	0	0	0	0	6.90	1.14	1.00	Waive
Mikko Rantanen	6	9:35	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.17	0.67	Waive
Borna Rendulic	3	7:37	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.33	0.67	Waive
Andrew Agozzino	2	8:46	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.50	0.50	Waive

The Avalanche loaded up their top line this year with their three young stud forwards, Duchene, MacKinnon and Landeskog, and it is paying off for those forwards. They are each averaging close to a point per game and taking more than 2.5 shots per game. The line makes a lot of sense together as there are not a lot of high level skill players on the avalanche that can play at the speed at which both MacKinnon and Duchene play. Iginla and Tanguay are other high-level skill options but neither play at that pace any more. Iginla is still very effective but each of the young trio have fared much better without him, which has not been the case in past years. One player who has had success when playing up on the top line is Mikhail Grigorenko. The problem is that Grigorenko has not had success with Iginla and/or Tanguay and gets stuck on the fourth line with McLeod when the trio are all healthy. This makes him a great depth pick-up if any of the three youngsters suffers an injury.

With Grigorenko unable to find success with Iginla and Tanguay John Mitchell has somehow stumbled into the second line center role. Mitchell will not contribute much to the line but he will certainly benefit from it. He was always a good option for peripheral categories but may now also provide some points as well. Iginla gets an abundance of power play time and will get his points as a result but he is only getting just over two shots per game now and looks like he is finally falling off at age 38. That may turn around if the Avs can find a second line center that works with Tanguay and Iginla as Tanguay is struggling as well. Soderberg would be an interesting option except that Roy seems set on using him with Comeau and Martinsen on something of a checking line a role for which Mitchell is ideally suited. At least Roy has stopped using McLeod on the power play but there is little in his repertoire that suggests he is capable of finding the right fit on the second line.

Dallas

Player	GP	TOI	PP TOI	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Jamie Benn	33	20.28	3:18	22	22	12	21.15	14.49	3.15	3.42	Hold/Soft Sell
Cody Eakin	33	16.62	1:37	7	8	2	13.21	9.88	1.61	1.67	Hold
Vernon Fiddler	33	12.15	0:04	3	9	1	7.14	8.82	1.27	1.52	Hold
Mattias Janmark-Nylen	33	13.82	0:41	7	4	1	12.50	8.33	1.70	2.42	Sell
Tyler Seguin	33	19.34	3:28	18	26	13	13.43	13.82	4.06	4.24	Hold
Patrick Sharp	33	17.76	3:02	11	13	10	11.46	11.57	2.91	3.18	Hold
Jason Spezza	33	16.87	3:24	12	11	9	11.76	9.38	3.09	3.00	Hold
Ales Hemsky	32	11.77	1:09	3 📢 advertisement:	10	3	5.56	9.05	1.69	1.76	Hold
Valeri Nichushkin	31	13.73	0:54	4	9	0	8.70	9.05	1.48	2.16	Buy
Antoine Roussel	31	13.27	0:06	5	5	0	16.13	10.12	1.00	0.90	Hold/Sell
Colton Sceviour	30	12.51	0:23	1	5	1	2.56	9.52	1.30	1.77	Sell
Patrick Eaves	17	11.85	1:14	2	0	1	7.41	6.78	1.59	1.76	Hold
Radek Faksa	14	11.95	0:01	1	1	0	5.56	8.22	1.29	1.64	Waive
Travis Moen	6	9.27	0:01	0	0	0	0	0	1.00	1.33	Waive
Devin Shore	3	12.19	0:05	0	0	0	0	27.27	0.33	0.67	Waive
Curtis McKenzie	1	9.03	0:00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	Waive

The Dallas Stars are a joy to watch and are averaging 3.5 goals per game, almost half a goal more than the next highest scoring teams. They also feature four players averaging close to three shots per game or more. Tyler Seguin is tops amongst them taking an Ovechkin like four shots per game. He is also generating four scoring chances per game, those two factors combine to make his 13% shooting percentage entirely within reason. It might even be a little low based on the rate at which he takes quality shots. His partner in crime, Jamie Benn, is taking three shots per game while getting just less than three and a half scoring chances per game. Together they generate seven shots per game just between the two of them. When Patrick Sharp, and his three shots per game, they get average a ridiculous 10 shots per game. The fact that second line center Jason Spezza is also capable of generating three shots per game is absurd. That accounts for three of the top 18 individual shot totals in the league thus far, with Sharp sitting 31st. With the exception of Benn the shooting percentages are relatively normal and much of the inflation is to due to the Stars’ power play success.

There are questions on the Stars as there is a fair amount of fluctuation within their lines. The prime point of interest is the third spot alongside Benn and Seguin. It has often gone to Patrick Sharp but recently Valeri Nichushkin has been getting some play there. Both Sharp and Nichushkin have had tons of success in that spot and whomever gets the majority of time there will have be a fantasy god-send. Sharp will be fine regardless as he has a spot on Stars’ top power play unit, whereas Nichushkin’s value will be greatly affected by this outcome. Even though Jason Spezza has been fantasy gold this season it is largely to due his spot on the the power play. Therefore, a spot on the second line with him does not provide the same production bump as does a spot with the dynamic duo. Beyond that the Stars are largely filled out with players who contribute mostly via periphery categories such as hits/blocks/PIMs although they do make great depth options as almost everybody on the Stars has slightly elevated point totals.

Edmonton

Player	GP	TOI	PP TOI	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Taylor Hall	34	19:58	3:15	15	21	8	10.87	11.03	4.06	4.00	Hold
Mark Letestu	34	15:19	1:54	2	5	5	6.67	6.57	1.32	1.03	Hold
Teddy Purcell	34	16:44	2:55	6	14	4	8.33	9.68	2.12	1.97	Hold
Anton Lander	33	13:01	1:01	0	2	0	0	4.52	1.09	0.79	Gamble
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	33	20:16	2:58	8	15	8	12.50	11.46	1.94	2.33	Hold
Lauri Korpikoski	26	14:41	1:14	6	2	2	15.00	6.38	1.54	1.62	Hold
Iiro Pakarinen	26	9:46	0:25	3	2	1	13.04	5.66	0.88	1.12	Hold
Benoit Pouliot	25	16:08	2:23	5	7	3	10.20	9.17	1.96	1.96	Buy
Leon Draisaitl	24	18:28	2:44	9	19	5	18.37	11.90	2.04	2.38	Sell
Matt Hendricks	24	15:02	0:13	2	3	0	6.90	6.16	1.21	1.33	Hold
Luke Gazdic	22	6:49	0	1	0	3	7.69	4.55	0.59	0.59	Sell
Nail Yakupov	22	15:16	2:05	2	10	0	3.92	9.39	2.32	2.45	Buy
Jordan Eberle	21	18:08	2:30	8	3	2	15.38	6.25	2.48	2.57	Buy
Connor McDavid	13	18:02	2:46	5	7	3	20.83	10.87	1.85	2.15	Buy
Anton Slepyshev	11	8:26	0:11	0	1	0	0	6.45	0.45	0.82	Waive
Jujhar Khaira	9	11:14	0	0	2	0	0	9.62	1.33	1.89	Waive
Rob Klinkhammer	8	11:00	0:02	1	0	0	12.50	3.45	1.00	1.13	Waive
Andrew Miller	6	9:12	0:09	0	0	0	0	5.88	0.50	0.67	Waive

Edmonton is an interesting case because there is a major piece of the puzzle missing until Connor McDavid returns. McDavid had a huge effect on the Oilers lineup when he was healthy, especially on his linemates Benoit Pouliot and Nail Yakupov. His return could affect a numbers of players depending on the line combinations that are used upon his return. All of McDavid’s even strength points came with both Pouliot and Yakupov on the ice, with that trio on the ice the Oiler scored almost four goals per 60 minutes at even strength, conversely the Oilers struggled to score at all when they were on the ice separately. Each averaged close to a point per game at even strength when McDavid was healthy. A reunion would immediately add value to both Pouliot and Yakupov as both have struggled to score in McDavid’s absence.

When McDavid returns there is great potential for the Oilers to run with three scoring lines. Leon Draisaitl and Taylor Hall have found immediate chemistry together. Hall is a bona fide star and will succeed almost regardless of his linemates. Draisaitl on the other hand looks to be over achieving. Not only is he scoring on 18% of his shots, but he is also a prime candidate to lose a chunk of his power play time once McDavid returns. The ‘third’ scoring line would ostensibly be based around Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle, a duo that head a ton of success last year. They have not fared nearly as well this year as the Oilers have scored less than two goals per 60 minutes at even strength. The prime candidates to fill out these duos are Benoit Pouliot, Teddy Purcell and Anton Lander. Pouliot has had success with both McDavid and RNH while Purcell has skated alongside Hall and Draisaitl for much of the season. Finally Lander is naturally a center but he is also the most likely to join a scoring line as Letestu, Hendricks, Korpikoski and to a lesser extent Pakarinen are all best suited for the checking line.

Real or Imagined: Forwards Part 1 (2015)	14 Dec 2015	Doran Libin
Real or Imagined: Defensemen Part 2 (2015)	7 Dec 2015	Doran Libin
Real or Imagined: Defensemen Part 1 (2015)	30 Nov 2015	Doran Libin
Real or Imagined: Goalies (2015)	23 Nov 2015	Doran Libin

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11	CAR	vs	PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11	MTL	vs	CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11	BUF	vs	OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11	TOR	vs	BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11	NYI	vs	PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11	MIN	vs	L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11	STL	vs	T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11	WPG	vs	UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11	COL	vs	SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11	ANA	vs	VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11	S.J	vs	CBJ