December 22, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-12-22

Bozak and the Leafs burst Varlamov's bubble, Penguins find some offense without Crosby, Justin Schultz scores and more.

No Sidney Crosby for the Penguins as he is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Nice dig here from Chris Johnston:

Sidney Crosby, out tonight with a lower-body injury, has never played a full 82-game NHL season. Twice dressed for 81; once 80.

Crosby’s health woes are well documented so this doesn’t really come as a surprise. Still a crazy stat to think about though. I imagine he will be back on the weekend for the Penguins’ next game

Check out the Penguins’ lines without Crosby:

18.87%

EV

HORNQVIST,PATRIC – MALKIN,EVGENI – SHEARY,CONOR

17.74%

EV

FEHR,ERIC – PLOTNIKOV,SERGEI – PORTER,KEVIN

16.98%

EV

BONINO,NICK – KESSEL,PHIL – KUNITZ,CHRIS

14.34%

EV

CULLEN,MATT – PERRON,DAVID – WILSON,SCOTT

 

With a decent defense you could win with that group, I honestly believe that. It only really works if you’ve got Evgeni Malkin dialed in for 82 games. He was dialed in last night, even after a knee-on-knee collision with Boone Jenner briefly took him out of the game. Two goals for Malkin.

Phil Kessel also scored a pair on a second line that I really liked. I may be biased as a Nick Bonino owner but I have always been a fan of his distribution skills and two-way game. If the Penguins’ weren’t so loaded up front I could see Bonino finding a role on their top power-play unit.

I wonder if they would consider something with Kessel and Bonino long term. They have played around with spreading the offense across three lines in the past but maybe with another puck mover in Trevor Daley it will actually work.

Daley, by the way, has points in three straight games. Taking full advantage of the top unit PP time with Kris Letang out. If you snapped Daley off waivers now is the time to try and trade him for something more solid.

Matt Murray stopped 22 of 24 for his first career NHL win. This may be the last we see of him as Marc-Andre Fleury may be ready to go after the holidays. Whatever shakes out, remember the name. Murray looks like he has a future in this league and is the go-to guy if Fleury misses an extended stretch.

*

The Blue Jackets were also without their captain as Nick Foligno sat out after getting a little banged up against Philadelphia over the weekend. Doesn’t sound serious.

They did get Jack Johnson back after missing a couple of games. Johnson went right back to his big minutes skating over 24 last night. He also went back to being unproductive with another goose egg. I dumped Johnson in the only pool I had him in so that I could bring Freddie Andersen off the waiver wire. Oops! My other goalie option was Connor Hellebuyck, who fared no better. I was pooched from the jump.

Alexander Wennberg stayed hot opening the scoring with an assist from Brandon Saad. Watch out for those two with five points apiece in the last four games.

*

I think I should be excused for thinking that the Islanders were a safe opponent to take Andersen off the IR for. They had only just dumped three straight games while scoring just two goals in that stretch.

Instead, the flailing Ducks were the sacrificial lambs needed to get John Tavares rolling once again. Two assists for Tavares made for his first multi-point game since November 16 and ended a three-game drought. He still has just four points in 10 December games though.

Tavares was lined up with Ryan Strome and Brock Nelson. Each of them recorded a point. I’d be a little more excited about their potential if Kyle Okposo wasn’t due back after the Christmas break. Seems like the lines will get scrambled once again here.

*

Lots of folks want to know what to do about the Ducks’ goaltending situation. John Gibson keeps lingering. Stop falling for it. Andersen is the guy.

I don’t know what is going to shake out here but you figure changes are coming after the holidays. Either someone is getting traded or someone is getting fired. And everyone will point to that move as the reason why thing changed. I still think this is somewhat a puck luck issue.

Admittedly, I haven’t taken in the Ducks in a while but I recall when they were struggling back in October, it wasn’t for lack of scoring chances. They just weren’t getting pucks to go in. A bad bounce here, a crossbar there. A big save here, a whiff on an open net there. It all just kept piling up.

The Ducks have the second worst PDO in the league ahead of just the Hurricanes and the Ducks have not been suffering from poor goaltending. Their goaltending has been essentially league-average. It’s all offensive bounces.

As so often happens when a coach gets fired, a team will often perform better because it usually requires some astronomically poor results for a coach to get fired. The new coach may simply have the privilege of timing.

That’s why I have thoroughly appreciated the Ducks’ decision not to fire Bruce Boudreau. I don’t really believe that this is on him. Give him average puck luck and this is a playoff team. Likely only because the Pacific is awful but still, a playoff team nonetheless.

And whenever the team does start getting some average luck on the scoring chances, we will see Andersen winning games. I have little doubt about that. It’s tough to be patient but it’s not like Gibson is winning a ton of games either. Furthermore, have you tried acquiring him as insurance for Andersen? People can smell the desperation and are asking absurd prices. You stand a good chance of getting victimized in a trade for a glorified back up.

*

Oooh wee! What a comeback by the Flyers.

They spotted the Blues three goals only to storm back with four of their own to take the game in regulation.

Jakub Voracek stayed hot on the second line with Sean Couturier and Wayne Simmonds. That line has looked really dangerous in every contest and has produced accordingly. Two assist for Voracek last night, and two goals for Simmonds, though one of those was on the power play.

Couturier is definitely the third wheel on that line. I have little interest in him in any pool but the other two as members of the Flyers’ white hot top PP unit, those two are gold. Voracek has a five-game scoring streak going now with no signs of slowing down.

Impressively, they stuck with Steve Mason after going down three goals and he made some big stops to keep the Flyers alive. He has started three straight and has earned the team five points in the last three games with the only loss coming via shootout.

Lots of folks are tossing around the Flyers’ record with Shayne Gostisbehere in the lineup, which improved to 10-4-4. That isn’t actually that strong a record. It’s only two games above .500 but because of the stupid rules, acts almost two extra wins. The Flyers have played an absurd nine overtime games with Gostisbehere around.

Where Gostisbehere has really helped is in reinvigorating the Flyers’ power play, which had been floundering before his arrival. It still hasn’t been great clicking on nine of 50 chances (18.0% success rate) since his arrival and you could argue that it has been simple regression that has keyed the productivity and not some new dimension that Gostisbehere has added that wasn’t there when Mark Streit was running things.

That projects the wrong message though. Streit has been one of the most consistent defensemen of this generation. To step in for Streit without any hiccups is a huge plus for Gostisbehere. He recorded two assists last night to give him 14 in 18.

*

You can tell a lot about who a coach trusts based on who he throws out there while the chips are down. With 1:30 left, down 2-1 and with an offensive zone draw the Hurricanes threw out Noah Hanifin and Justin Faulk as their defense pairing.

No one is surprised to see Faulk out there but Hanifin? I suppose the competition in Carolina is slim but you might have expected to see a trusty veteran like John-Michael Liles or Ron Hainsey but no, it was Hanifin. He actually led the Hurricanes in PP time with over 4:05 last night. He is getting every opportunity to succeed.

There probably isn’t enough offense in Carolina for Hanifin to become fantasy relevant this season but all the signs are there for him to become a good one and soon.

Phillip Di Giuseppe had another five hits last night to give him 33 in nine games. There’s your under-the-radar hitter to snag off the waiver wire. Skating with Victor Rask and a sizzling Jeff Skinner isn’t too shabby either so he may get you a point here or there.

Check out the beauty goal from Kris Versteeg last night.

*

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Three guesses who has the most points in the month of December:

1. Nope.

2. Wrong again.

3. Are you even trying?

It’s Shea Weber who after three points last night has 15 so far this month. Close behind him are Taylor Hall, Patrick Kane, Johnny Gaudreau and Vladimir Tarasenko but it is Weber and that thunderous shot of his who leads the league.

Roman Josi isn’t too far off with 12.

A multi-point effort for Calle Jarnkrok isn’t enough to get me on board. I don’t care that he’s been attached to James Neal since Mike Fisher went down. He has barely scored until last night. I need to see more before getting excited.

Colin Wilson also jumped on the scoreboard with a three-point effort. I’m not buying him either. Not yet. I need consistency. Wilson has been far too inconsistent. His goal, an empty-netter, was just his second of the season.

Pekka Rinne is a guy whose stock I would buy. Two straight wins for Rinne and two goals or less allowed in four straight. Starting to turn the corner.

*

Everyone is talking about how this recent slide shows how the Canadiens really need Carey Price. First of all, yes. They absolutely need Price. But I don’t think it gives enough credit to how important Brendan Gallagher is. They survived the first go-around without Price while Gallagher was still in the lineup because he is a guy who can really change things through sheer will. He gets to spots no one else will get to.

On the average night the Canadiens are still outshooting opponents by a fat sum like they did outshooting the Preds 36-19 last night. Some of that has been score effects as they have been getting down more but mostly they have been playing the same as they were before just without the same scoring punch and timely goaltending.

Max Pacioretty, for instance, has been shooting like crazy but without the havoc that Gallagher creates the shooting lanes have been thinner and the traffic at the goal mouth has been sparser.

No Jeff Petry for the Habs as he is day-to-day. He won’t go tonight in Minnesota either. I am anticipating another blowout. He is just one too many quality players to be missing.

*

That is one fat contract extension that Jared Spurgeon just signed with the Minnesota Wild. I’m not a huge fan. It’s a four-year extension worth $5.1875 million annually. I realize that three of the four years bought here are UFA years and that the Wild really got some savings by going with a three-year bridge deal on Spurgeon’s previous contract but this contract is out of line with what we have seen most RFA defensemen signing for in recent years.

Just look at Spurgeon’s teammates Marco Scandella and Jonas Brodin. They both signed lengthy RFA extensions worth around the $4 million annual rate that every defenseman who can walk and chew gum gets. That $4 million rate has probably bumped up to $4.25 million if some of the extensions signed this fall are any indication.

It’s telling that in terms of salary Spurgeon gets $4.25 million for next season, his last year of RFA eligibility and then the contract spikes in the remaining three seasons. No doubt the standard fare of $4.25 million was considered here specifically.

This deal places Spurgeon as the second highest paid defenseman on the team and sixth highest paid player. But then again, he is second in time on-ice on a Wild team stacked on defense.

I’d say he is probably overpaid by a million bucks annually on this deal, which all told isn’t a huge problem. However, if this sets a new precedent for RFA defensemen, then some teams are going to be up against it when it comes to extending the next guys up because each new wave wants a little more than the guy before.

Where I really take issue is that this is entering the realm where players can no longer out-perform their deal. Players don’t have to out-perform their deal for the contract to be worth it but unless you are keeping a superstar around – like a Jonathan Toews or an Anze Kopitar – it probably isn’t worth it to overpay.

Where this contract gets really interesting is in considering where some of the Wild’s younger defensemen stand. They have Matt Dumba slowly being brought along at the NHL level. He is headed towards restricted free agency this summer as well. You could certainly see the Wild going the bridge route so that Dumba proves himself worthy of a bigger deal but with four guys ahead of him on the pecking order will there be much room to do so?

There is also Mike Reilly who has just been called up for the second time but has yet to actually make his NHL debut. At some point he will need to get a chance to crack the NHL roster. It’s an enviable position the Wild have put themselves in but there is no question that this contract hurts the outlook of Dumba and Reilly.

*

The Wild did what it took to chase Kari Lehtonen scoring two goals on four shots early on but then were stone-walled by Antti Niemi the rest of the way. I have tried to handicap the Dallas crease all season but have given up, at least for the regular season. If I had to guess, come playoff time Niemi will emerge because he has the experience.

*

Good gravy, the Leafs last night. It wasn’t pretty but Jonathan Bernier has two wins in a row.

More importantly, the power play went three for three, with Leo Komarov figuring into all three in a big way. Five goals and seven points in the last three games for Uncle Leo. Shooting percentage is 23.4%, which is almost certainly unsustainable but as a net-front guy something in the 20% range is feasible. He could actually pull off a 30-goal season. Unlikely, but possible.

Tyler Bozak added a third period hat-trick to seal the game. He is now on a 60-point pace, which would be better than anything he ever did for a full season with Kessel, if you can believe it. I’m not sure I buy 60 points though. Injuries will probably slow things down for him, as will simple regression. Maybe 50 points, which would still be a career high. Still, I am definitely impressed that he hasn’t fallen off the map entirely.

Four assists for Jake Gardiner, three of which came as the lone defenseman on the Leafs’ top PP unit. Interesting setup. It could be productive for him. On the other hand, these were his first points in December so I am not buying stock yet. Give me a few games of Gardiner going solo on the top PP unit and maybe I’ll climb on board.

*

I can’t believe it was the Leafs who let the air out of the balloon that was Semyon Varlamov floating into the stratosphere. That’s dead now though. Six goals on 21 shots. Woof.

*

Oh my freaking goodness! A Justin Schultz appearance! He scored his first goal of the season. I’m still giving up on him.

Mark Spector speculates that Schultz’s time in Edmonton is coming to a close:

The culling is underway in Edmonton, as McLellan and Chiarelli poke and prod to decipher which players have NHL skills, and which of them couple that with an NHL level of compete, commitment and courage. Who can you win with? Who is just along for the ride?

Schultz isn’t passing anyone’s test anymore, at either end of the rink.

I have to concur. Last night’s goal isn’t enough to sway me. I took a chance on Schultz in a couple of leagues and because of his injury maybe gave him too much rope. I quit this weekend, dropping him outright in a one-year pool and putting him on the trade block in a keeper, asking for anything better than a complete bust. So far the only offer was Anders Lindback, my one criterion not met.

I’ve no doubt that Schultz could rediscover his game somewhere. We’ve seen enough guys bust out at like age 30 that no one should ever be written off entirely. Michael Del Zotto went through quite the odyssey for a couple of years before finding a home in Philadelphia. Maybe that’s what Schultz needs. All I know is that I am done waiting for Schultz.

Eight points for the trio of Hall, Leon Draisaitl and Teddy Purcell. This line shows up even when the team is getting beat down. It’s impressive.

How about Cam Talbot with a couple of 40+ save endeavours in the past week. Last night it was 44 saves on 45 shots for the win. That’s one way to scratch back a share of the crease.

*

As mentioned, Hellebuyck got chased after three goals on 14 shots. Michael Hutchinson didn’t allow a goal the rest of the way and probably earned the next start. In my radio spot over the weekend I advised the host, Todd Lewis, to punt Hutchinson from his team and get him as far away as possible. I stand by that. Hellebuyck is the guy even if he did get chased last night.

*

Patrik Elias talks about the difficulties he has encountered with his body not being 100% and how that will lead to more scratches in the future:

"It's not called a healthy scratch. A healthy scratch would be for the reason (coach John Hynes) might not be happy with the way I'm playing or something," Elias explained. "At my age, with some of the issues I've been having, it's fine to give me a night off. Especially when we played five games in eight nights. You see it around the league. Even young guys like Marek Zidlicky (who is 38) is getting a night off. So why not me?"

With this information there is almost no way you can put Elias in your lineup beyond the odd spot start. He just isn’t reliable enough.

*

Ian Gooding fills us in on who to start and sit for goaltenders this week.

*

Crazy story here where a high school hockey team tried to play with two goalies at once.

*

Thanks for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

One Comment

  1. james 2015-12-22 at 11:44

    Man you guys overreact….day in an day out. Not sure I can tolerate reading this tripe much longer. Let’s throw out Varlys last 6 games because of 1 shelling….man, it’s like you guys never actually watch games. Team play 82 games and winning 35 means your a stud….get a grip, “top performers” have bad games…

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