Ramblings: Assembling Fantasy Hockey All-Star Teams for the West (Jan. 30)
steve laidlaw
2016-01-29
Building Fantasy Hockey All-Star Teams for the divisions in the West.
With no games to report on this All-Star Weekend there isn’t a ton to react to. The reprieve is a great opportunity to reflect on the first half of the season and outline some of this season’s most important fantasy contributors. Sticking with the All-Star theme let’s build some All-Star rosters based on the top fantasy contributors from the first half. Just like the NHL, we will build a team for each division with six forwards, three defensemen and two goalies and each team from each division must be represented. Our rosters may not differ all that much from those selected for the real All-Star game, we’ll just have to see. Because of the rule that each team must be represented, and the positional scarcity of the goaltending and defense positions we will start with those two before moving on to the forwards.
Yesterday we did the East. Today the West is up.
The Central
Goaltenders
The Contenders
Semyon Varlamov – 19-12-3 – 2.59 GAA – 0.918 Sv% – 1 Shutout
Varlamov has been at times exceptional and at times abhorrent. It’s these inconsistencies that keep him from being considered an elite goaltender. He is a legit #1 but that isn’t enough.
Connor Hellebuyck – 12-9-1 – 2.10 GAA – 0.927 Sv% – 2 Shutouts
Hellebuyck has been a revelation bringing consistent goaltending to a team starved for it. Hellebuyck hasn’t been able to keep the Jets in the playoff picture but that probably says more about the rest of the team than his play. Can you imagine this team without Hellebuyck in goal? Actually, there may be worse fates than tanking in a season with Austin Matthews, Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrick Laine waiting to be drafted. A word of caution, Ondrej Pavelec may return after the break and it’s possible that the Jets demote Hellebuyck and throw in the towel on this season.
Jake Allen – 18-10-3 – 2.17 GAA – 0.924 Sv% – 5 Shutouts
A knee injury hurts Allen’s contention in the midst of a breakout season. He finally had Ken Hitchcock committed to one goalie but this injury opens the door back up for Brian Elliott who has been excellent in Allen’s absence. Ultimately, the numbers game is what keeps him out.
The Picks
Devan Dubnyk – 18-15-5 – 2.23 GAA – 0.922 Sv% – 4 Shutouts
If the voters had their way this would be Allen’s spot:
Fantasy Hockey All-Star Roster: Central Goalie after Crawford. Who has had the most fantasy value this season?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) January 25, 2016
Rightfully so. Allen has been great but we also have this tricky subject of needing an All-Star rep from the Wild and considering how their offense has tanked after a hot start there is no one other than Dubnyk to choose. His numbers have been about as good as Allen’s and over a larger sample size, he just isn’t getting any goal support and thus has a losing record.
Corey Crawford – 28-12-2 – 2.14 GAA – 0.931 Sv% – 7 Shutouts
A no-brainer inclusion, Crawford would probably earned this bid just based on his record alone, a sterling 0.667 winning percentage that glistens with an air of dependability matched only by Braden Holtby. Of course, Crawford has been great beyond the record, including a league leading seven shutouts. Crawford’s splits have to be mentioned, however:
Starts |
Wins |
GAA |
Sv% |
Shutouts |
|
Home |
24 |
18 |
1.59 |
0.909 |
7 |
Road |
18 |
10 |
2.93 |
0.947 |
0 |
Splits like that are why Crawford doesn’t come close to touching Holtby’s Vezina candidacy in my books but I also don’t get a vote.
Defensemen
The Candidates
Ryan Suter – 6 G – 25 A – Plus-8 – 10 PPP – 125 SOG
Suter has been great, on pace for a career season but the bottom fell out for him and the rest of the Wild offense in December, which cost him a likely spot on this team. Just four points in 14 December games. The good news is that he has rebounded with seven in 13 here in January. It’s going to be tight but Suter still has a shot at 50 points.
Brent Seabrook – 7 G – 24 A – Plus-7 – 14 PPP – 105 SOG
Seabrook did most of his damage while Duncan Keith was out for much of the first two months. He scored 19 points in 24 games in October and November but has just 12 points in 29 games since. The latter is the real Seabrook.
Duncan Keith – 7 G – 23 A – Plus-11 – 11 PPP – 77 SOG
Losing 10 games to injury ultimately cripples what would have been an excellent All-Star candidacy.
Shea Weber – 12 G – 19 A – Minus-5 – 18 PPP – 120 SOG
Weber was perhaps the best player in the NHL during December scoring 16 points in 15 games but otherwise he has been pedestrian. Five points in October, five points in November and five points in January. The voters want him in but the impossibility of the numbers game keeps him out:
Fantasy All-Star Roster: Central Defense. Who has had the LEAST fantasy value?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) January 25, 2016
How loaded is the Central? We didn’t even bother to mention Dustin Byfuglien or Kevin Shattenkirk.
The Picks
Tyson Barrie – 8 G – 25 A – Minus-4 – 15 PPP – 102 SOG
After a forgettable October in which he struggled and missed a couple of games, Barrie has been a terror scoring 31 points in 41 games November through January.
Roman Josi – 10 G – 25 A – Minus-3 – 17 PPP – 118 SOG
For the second straight season Josi is showing up Weber as the top defenseman on the Predators. I still remember when people laughed off Josi’s seven-year $28 million deal. Now he is arguably the biggest bargain in the league with four years remaining on that deal after this one.
John Klingberg – 6 G – 34 A – Plus-11 – 14 PPP – 102 SOG
Klingberg got off to such a scorching start to the season that we have to ignore that he has scored just 13 points in 26 games over the last two months. To be clear, that’s still a good pace but if he scored at that rate the whole season he wouldn’t even be a contender in this division. Klingberg is exceptional but don’t be shocked if he continues to scuffle in the second half. Currently third, there is no guarantee Klingberg finishes in the top-10 for defenseman scoring but that says a lot about how talented the field is.
Forwards
The Contenders
Nathan MacKinnon – 18 G – 23 A – Plus-2 – 15 PPP – 174 SOG
Fully recovered from his sophomore slump, MacKinnon is an irresistible force, gaining zone entries on the rush with a combination of strength, speed and elusiveness more akin to something you see in a video game than real life.
Matt Duchene – 23 G – 19 A – Minus-2 – 12 PPP – 148 SOG
The greatest thing to happen to Duchene’s stock was getting moved to the wing alongside MacKinnon. Duchene set the world ablaze with 11 goals and 20 points in November after just one goal and two points in October. Eventually the league caught up to Duchene on the wing and he has “just” 11 goals and 20 points in 28 games since but he remains a dangerous talent.
The Picks
Patrick Kane – 30 G – 43 A – Plus-22 – 25 PPP – 190 SOG
Jamie Benn – 28 G – 30 A – Plus-16 – 16 PPP – 161 SOG
Tyler Seguin – 25 G – 28 A – Plus-13 – 14 PPP – 190 SOG
Vladimir Tarasenko – 25 G – 21 A – Minus-1 – 15 PPP – 184
After speeding past the NHL’s top three scorers we land on Tarasenko who would probably be right up there with those three if he had an elite running-mate of his own. Instead, Tarasenko is left carrying the offensive load for a Blues team that is noticeably low on offense compared to its divisional brethren. Getting Tarasenko some help is paramount if the Blues are to become genuine contenders.
Artemi Panarin – 17 G – 29 A – Plus-7 – 12 PPP – 121 SOG
Odds are that if you have Panarin you got him off the waiver wire. Panarin was drafted in just 10% of leagues. Props to those with the foresight to take a chance on him at the draft table. His creative, fearless and dynamic play is reminiscent of linemate Kane and has made them the single most dangerous line in the NHL.
Blake Wheeler – 13 G – 35 A – Minus-2 – 13 PPP – 140 SOG
It really feels like MacKinnon and Duchene got snubbed not being on this squad until you realize who made it. Even Wheeler has been better than those two. Quietly having the best season of his career for a struggling Jets club, Wheeler may finally break the 70-point mark and has a shot at reaching 80 if everything breaks right. The looming exodus of veterans Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien at the trade deadline may ultimately derail Wheeler’s fine season but this has been a first half to remember nonetheless.
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Pacific
Goaltenders
The Contenders
Louis Domingue – 9-5-3 – 2.31 GAA – 0.924 Sv% – 2 Shutouts
The superb play of Domingue is keeping the Coyotes in the playoff race long after their expiration date.
Martin Jones – 23-13-3 – 2.39 GAA – 0.915 Sv% – 4 Shutouts
What’s the deal with the Sharks and settling for mere competence when it comes to goaltending? Evgeni Nabokov was viewed as a top goalie for years but that was mostly because of win total as his career 0.911 save percentage speaks to mere adequacy. Antti Niemi was no better for the Sharks. Now Jones has arrived to provide essentially a league average performance.
Jones might be better than the fantasy numbers indicate. You could say the same for his predecessors. In fantasy, however, you are what your numbers are.
The Picks
John Gibson – 11-7-2 – 1.91 GAA – 0.923 Sv% – 4 Shutouts
Fantasy All-Star Roster: Pacific Goalies, who has had the most fantasy value this season?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) January 26, 2016
If you prefer Jones here that’s all well and good but realize that there isn’t another Duck anywhere close to being worthy of making this team. Gibson has a strong enough case to make it without being forced in but he has to make it when you consider how pathetic the Ducks offense has been.
On that note, the Ducks are 10-3-1 since Christmas having scored 2.71 goals per game in that span. In particular the offense has been clicking since the arrival of David Perron.
The Ducks are coming, but it’s anyone’s guess if it will be Gibson or Freddie Andersen who leads the charge.
Jonathan Quick – 26-13-2 – 2.19 GAA – 0.919 Sv% – 3 Shutouts
Quick is perennially selected as a top-five goaltender at the draft table but rarely lives up to the billing. His career 0.916 save percentage is basically league average for this era. Quick does offer a high volume of starts and playing for a defensive juggernaut he is unlikely to harm you too much so there is something to be said for his dependability. The Kings have also kicked it up another notch after missing the playoffs entirely last year, which has helped Quick live up to that top-five draft ranking.
Defensemen
Contenders
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – 7 G – 18 A – Plus-11 – 6 PPP – 84 SOG
No one questions Vlasic’s bonafides as an NHL talent but after years of mediocrity no one really expected Vlasic to become fantasy relevant. Some favourable shooting along with a boost in power-play time has pushed Vlasic back into the mix. He already has scored more points than in any of the previous six seasons and looks set to blow his career high of 36 points out of the water. Continue to monitor Vlasic’s power-play minutes because he is right on that precarious ledge of relevance in many leagues and if he tips the wrong way he should become waiver fodder.
Jake Muzzin – 5 G – 22 A – Plus-6 – 9 PPP – 111 SOG
Everyone talks about how Drew Doughty is constantly overshadowed but the average hockey fan doesn’t even know the names of any of the Kings’ other defensemen. They should know about Muzzin who isn’t as good as Doughty but has fantasy numbers to contend with.
Drew Doughty – 10 G – 18 A – Plus-13 – 12 PPP – 117 SOG
Fantasy All-Star Roster: Pacific Defensemen, most fantasy value this season?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) January 26, 2016
Doughty is venturing towards one of those situations where a player is so “underrated” that he becomes overrated. As far as fantasy is concerned Doughty really is overrated. Kudos to him for having his best season since he broke out as a sophomore and is on pace for just his second 50-point season. People consistently draft Doughty like he is a top-10 fantasy defenseman but he is certainly not one.
The Picks
Mark Giordano – 11 G – 20 A – Minus-6 – 7 PPP – 117 SOG
Amazingly, Giordano was the fourth defenseman off the board on average. Thanks to a brutal start, he has not lived up to the hype but with 23 points in 24 games over the last two months Giordano is starting to reward owners for their investment and more importantly for their patience.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – 14 G – 20 A – Minus-5 – 16 PPP – 149 SOG
A no-brainer here. Ekman-Larsson is finally busting out after several seasons in the questionable 35-45-point range. Turns out, he just needed some forwards who could score to help boost his lagging assist total.
Brent Burns – 18 G – 25 A – Minus-9 – 19 PPP – 205 SOG
His shot rate is dropping but Burns remains on pace for 350 SOG. The only defensemen to accomplish that feat are Bobby Orr and Ray Bourque. We should all be cheering for him to keep up the pace.
Forwards
The Contenders
Max Domi – 13 G – 19 A – Minus-1 – 10 PPP – 87 SOG
Domi has had an impressive rookie season but his status as a contender is more reflective of how week the Pacific has been than of his standing in the fantasy hockey world. Domi is still owned in 63% of leagues but that should probably be lower considering he has scored just 12 points in 26 games the last two months.
Henrik Sedin – 9 G – 28 A – Plus-11 – 14 PPP – 54 SOG
Losing a few games to injury is enough to knock Henrik off the squad despite a second straight dominant season.
Leon Draisaitl – 12 G – 25 A – Plus-4 – 6 PPP – 80 SOG
It took a while but regression finally caught up to the Deutchland Dangler as he scored just six points and went minus-six in 11 games this month. Draisaitl had been rocking a shooting percentage well above 25% for some time but that was always going to fall. Draisaitl’s chemistry with Taylor Hall is still notable even as he has slowed down. This duo promises to be a productive one for years to come.
The Picks
Johnny Gaudreau – 20 G – 27 A – Plus-4 – 11 PPP – 130 SOG
The most impressive part of Gaudreau’s dominant scoring is how he has done it despite Jiri Hudler falling off the map. The Flames would likely be the worst team in hockey without Gaudreau’s dynamic play.
Taylor Hall – 18 G – 30 A – Plus-2 – 9 PPP – 190 SOG
Hall’s resurgence as one of the most dominant five-on-five scorers in the league has been impressive but all anyone wants to know is whether or not he can stay healthy. Bet on it.
Daniel Sedin – 21 G – 23 A – Plus-15 – 14 PPP – 175 SOG
Daniel has always been the more valuable of the two Sedins thanks to his role as the shooter of the duo. That Daniel has remained productive even with Henrik missing time is a testament to how talented each is as an individual.
Joe Pavelski – 25 G – 24 A – Plus-18 – 20 PPP – 129 SOG
Steady as she Joe’s. It is truly amazing to see Pavelski as one of the single best fantasy assets out there. A seventh round pick, Pavelski was never supposed to make the league, let alone become a star. Once he finally did crack the Sharks roster it seemed he would be forever stuck on the third line behind Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. Credit Todd McLellan for valuing having multiple centermen on the same line and thrusting Pavelski into a top line role. If not for that choice a couple of years ago, Pavelski might still be that underrated 60-point third line center. Instead, here he sits tied for fifth in league scoring.
Anze Kopitar – 13 G – 29 A – Plus-16 – 9 PPP – 105 SOG
Kopitar kicked it into high gear after scoring 13 points in 23 games in October and November. Part of the rebound was finally getting teamed up with Tyler Toffoli. Who knew combining your best playmaker with your best scorer would work out? Kopitar has scored 29 points in 26 games in December and January. He also cranked up his SOG to over two per game, which is a vast improvement after firing just 134 last season.
Tyler Toffoli – 22 G – 15 A – Plus-24 – 8 PPP – 127 SOG
Fantasy Hockey All-Star Roster: Pacific Forwards: most fantasy value this season?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) January 27, 2016
Toffoli snags the last spot in the Pacific. He has been good but he hasn’t been great so this nomination speaks more to the dearth of talent on the left coast.
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Check out the latest prospect ramblings over at DobberProspects.
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Thanks for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.
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Not really news, just made me laugh. Andrew Ladd was at the Barrett Jackson auction in Scottsdale and purchased a $100,000 custom I think it was 1967 Corvette. Saw it this evening as I was just watching the late re-run from earlier today. Announcer’s obviously didn’t recognize him at all, I’m assuming it was his Dad with him was wearing a Jets hat. Good way to spend the AS break.