Ramblings: Evander Kane's Season Over, Panarin Slumping, Duchene to return and more.

Wow, the Lightning get shutout at home by Mike Condon and the Subban-less Habs. It’s the NHL so every dog has its day but the Lightning don’t seem all that dangerous without Anton Stralman. They probably should have added a defenseman at the trade deadline and that’s assuming Stralman would be healthy. Now, there is a gaping hole on the right side. No easy solutions here. I wonder if they sense their championship window, at least this one with Steven Stamkos involved, slipping through their fingers. This could be a radically different team next season.

But before we write their eulogy. The whole Atlantic division is looking banged up. The Red Wings and Bruins are limping towards the playoffs with one of them the Lightning’s likely first round opponent. Then there’s the Panthers who have been great but have the Vincent Trocheck injury to contend with.

It looks to me like the Islanders might have lucked into the right side of the Eastern bracket, assuming they stick in the #1 wild card slot.

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By the way, the rats are back in Florida:

I love it!

Just 13:30 in a scoreless night for Nick Bjugstad filling in for Trocheck but last night was all about the top line getting back to work for the Panthers. Jaromir Jagr made it to 60 points on the season. I wasn’t sure he’d have enough gas in the tank but he did it.

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Carey Price was at his first official practice yesterday. Inching closer to a return. Probably too late for most of you. I’ll be happy if I can get one start out of price to close the season. If only because I bet on him making a return at some point.

Nathan Beaulieu’s season is over after blocking a shot with his hand.

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Evander Kane is done for the year. Only four games left for Buffalo anyhow, so not necessarily a big loss but Kane piled up some wicked rotisserie numbers in the 65 games he did play: 271 SOG, 91 PIM, 173 hits. This was also just his second 20-goal season. Crazy to think about considering this was his seventh NHL season. Of course, he had 17 in the lockout shortened 2013 season and has had 19 goals two other times.

What scares me about Kane, aside from the perennial injuries, is that he may have already peaked as a goal-scorer. There have been plenty of studies demonstrating that scorers peak early:

I went back and examined the careers of the top 100 goal scorers in NHL history and looked at when they had their best goal-scoring seasons (I used goals-per-game averages in seasons with a minimum of 30 games played instead of raw goal numbers). The average age was just barely over 25, with the majority of the best seasons coming before a player's age-25 season. There were a couple of random outliers — mainly from the 1950s and the Original Six era — with players who ended up having their best seasons in their early-to-mid 30s, but for the most part it was right around, or before, age 25.

Kane turns 25 this summer. So he’s likely either at his apex or is already past it. Scary thought. As of yet, I’ve seen little change in his playing habits, though it’s not like I am watching every Sabre game. But it seems he is all too content to fling from anywhere on the rush. That’s a great recipe for piling up shot totals, but not so good if you want those shots to have a decent chance of going in. It’s why we don’t see Kane used on the top power-play unit.

Kane’s career high for PPP is nine. If he’s going to hit another level, he needs to find a way to become an effect power-play producer. My hope is that he can reinvent himself as a net-front presence. Put the size, strength and good hands to use. Get into knife-fighting range instead of flinging from the perimeter. It’s the only way he’s getting onto the Sabres’ top PP unit when they have the likes of Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly and Sam Reinhart in tow.

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Mark Stone was out last night and will not rejoin the Senators on their road trip, which means he misses at least one more game. He should return after that.

With Stone out, it was Bobby Ryan skating with Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Zack Smith. Two-point night for Ryan, while Pageau had three points.

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Cory Schneider says he'll start Saturday in Tampa.

— Rich Chere (@Ledger_NJDevils) March 31, 2016

I’m not sure you really want to use Cory Schneider against a pissed off Tampa Bay but the option is there.

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Cody Eakin continues to skate in Tyler Seguin’s spot on the Stars’ top line but has now gone scoreless in four straight games. If you took a flyer you may want to bail out, he just hasn’t paid dividends.

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Martin Hanzal left last night’s game with an upper-body injury and did not return. He at least managed to score a goal before leaving. I wonder if this, like so many injuries lately, will cost Hanzal the rest of his season. Damn shame if it did, though it might spark Antoine Vermette once again.

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Because the Blues can never have a fully healthy lineup:

Sounds like Fabbri won't play the next 2-3 games but after that, likely all systems are a go. #stlblues

— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) March 31, 2016

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With Eric Staal making his return to Carolina last night, he penned a letter to the Hurricane fans and organization in The Players’ Tribune.

None of the three Staal’s got on the board last night. Instead it was Derek Stepan and Jeff Skinner leading the way for their respective teams, which makes sense as each has been the hottest performer for his team over the last month or so.

Sergei Tolchinsky was up for the Hurricanes and notched an assist in 10:53. I’d be more intrigued by Tolchinsky if the Hurricanes had a little more firepower up front that he could complement. There’s a fine line where teams lacking on talent can give young players opportunities to play but if there isn’t enough talent supporting them they may not succeed.

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Sonny Milano’s debut for Columbus was nowhere near as favourable as Oliver Bjorkstrand’s. Milano skated just 13:26 with no power-play time. On the plus side, he was skating with Brandon Saad and Alexander Wennberg, which is a good spot but I was hoping he’d get some PP time.

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Nick Leddy was used in his usual spot on the top power-play unit for much of last night but when a late power play came it was Johnny Boychuk out there with the big guns. Low and behold, Boychuk uncorked a one-timer off a pass from the right half-wall and it was headed towards the net before the defense knew what was coming. The shot didn’t even hit the net. Instead, it went all the way through and caromed off the boards behind the net and out in front where Anders Lee was able to tap it in.

That’s the power of the one-timer from the point. You have to have it if you want an effective power play.

John Tavares scored a pair of goals last night to bring him up to 61 points on the season. He might be becoming more Jonathan Toews than Sidney Crosby, which would be unfortunate for fantasy owners. Part of the problem is he has been asked to carry Ryan Strome and Josh Bailey as linemates. I like Bailey, but he’s not much of a scoring threat. Strome just isn’t ready yet. Maybe when Strome’s game becomes a little more advanced, we’ll get some more from Tavares.

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Some good news regarding Matt Duchene:

Roy said there is a good chance that Duchene will play tomorrow vs. WSH, but he still has to talk to the player and the medical staff.

— Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) March 31, 2016

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Interesting look at the most productive trade deadline acquisitions:

Surprisingly, Devante Smith-Pelly is the biggest producer post-deadline. And while many look at his crazy shooting percentage and say he’s just getting lucky, he is producing the third-most scoring chances in this group, so there is an element of good performance there, too. However, he ranks just seventh in scoring chance-generating plays, sixth in controlled entries, and last in loose puck recoveries.

As expected, most players joining contenders have done so in depth roles and have thus seen their productivity decline.

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Rob Vollman weighs in on the Norris Trophy debate:

But if they were assigned the exact same ice time as Karlsson at even strength and on the power play, Burns would be projected to lead the scoring race with 80 points, and Letang would match Karlsson's 76 points.

Beyond those three, the scoring race would be tight. With Karlsson's ice time, John Klingberg of the Dallas Stars would have 75 points, followed by Shayne Gostisbehere of the Philadelphia Flyers with 74 and Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators with 72. There is no clear-cut winner.

Of course, part of what makes Karlsson great is the Herculean effort he gives each night, skating a league leading 29:05 per game. You can’t just assume that players would sustain their production over a larger chunk of minutes when that would require an abnormal physical effort of them.

What really sways me regarding Karlsson just how much better the Senators are with him on the ice versus when he is off:

In contrast, this is another area where Karlsson shines. Ottawa has allowed 55.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes when Karlsson has been on the ice, and 61.8 when he is not, one of the best margins in the League. Factor in his additional offense and Ottawa's share of all shot attempts rises from 44.3 percent to 51.3 percent whenever Karlsson is on the ice. That margin of 7.0 percent ranks No. 5 among NHL defensemen.

So much of the Norris debate boils down to the desire to create controversy, voter fatigue and some weird desire to give Drew Doughty a life-time achievement award perhaps a third of the way into his career. Remove all that and you are left with Karlsson as the top candidate, which is all that should matter.

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In another race, Pierre LeBrun discusses the Calder Trophy candidates:

Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers: The 22-year-old has already set a franchise record for goals by a rookie blueliner with 16. And the thing is, so many of his goals have been clutch ones, at big moments. With 42 points in just 58 games and logging close to 20 minutes a game, he's had the kind of season that deserves serious Calder Trophy consideration. One NHL head coach I texted with Thursday morning pointed out that the Flyers defenseman is also playing meaningful games with his team in a playoff push. That should count for something, too. Not to mention how much harder it is to break into this league as a defenseman. It's why Aaron Ekblad deservedly got the Calder a year ago.

This is now the direction that I am leaning. Three weeks of slumping has cost Artemi Panarin a lot. He has just two points in his last nine games and hasn’t scored a goal in that span. His last goal, March 9^th. Maybe Gostisbehere would have hit a wall had he been required to play the full slate as Panarin has.

As I write this, yesterday afternoon, Panarin is 18^th in league scoring and falling, while Gostisbehere is 18^th in defenseman scoring and rising. Panarin can still salvage this. He has five games to get some scoring together to stay fresh in voters’ minds.

It’s really important to note just how good this rookie class is. Is this a going trend? As coaching gets better at the lower levels and the players look into training earlier and earlier the are coming in more ready physically. With the value of entry-level deals perhaps every rookie class is going to start looking like this as GMs stock their roster with cheap young contracts and coaches are forced to rely on young players in big roles. Or this is an aberration. I think we are going to be looking back on it years from now chuckling about how many superstars got their start in 2015-16. Even as the league trends younger, this is a real bumper crop.

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It sounds like there may be a pile of European free agents who may make their way over to the NHL this season some of whom you’ll recognize from before:

12. Vladimir Sobotka, C, Avangard Omsk (KHL)

After a contract dispute with the St. Louis Blues, Sobotka took his talents to the KHL, where he’s played for the last two seasons. The Blues have definitely missed him in the lineup. He provided reliable, possession-driving depth.

Sobotka has a one-month window each summer where he’s permitted to opt out of his KHL contract to find work in the NHL. ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that “all indications” are that he will come back to St. Louis next season.

It’s sort of a mixed bag with these free agents. There are plenty of hits, like Artemi Panarin, Leo Komarov, Jori Lehtera and Carl Soderberg. Even guys like Sergey Kalinin have found stable jobs, even if they haven’t been productive on the fantasy spectrum. Be careful expecting too much however. Examples like Fabian Brunnstrom, Ville Leino and Damien Brunner come to mind as players who had some initial success but washed out quickly. There are plenty of examples of failure. The good news is that most of these guys are veterans so we typically find out quickly, one way or the other, if they can hang.

And if all these guys do come over, watch out for some serious turnover among the veteran ranks in the league. A team might spend up for a Euro veteran in his late-20’s rather than doing the same for an NHL vet who is now in his 30’s. We have already seen that the middle of the free agent market is getting squeezed. Adding more competition for those spots makes it more of a buyers’ market.

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Dobber’s latest examines the biggest surprises and disappointments of this fantasy hockey season.

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Steve Laidlaw is the Managing Editor of Dobber Hockey. Follow him @SteveLaidlaw.