Playoff recaps, some players to avoid next year, thoughts on scouting, and Guy Boucher.

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Dallas would guarantee hockey fans with at least one Game 7, as the Stars hung on to win 3-2 in Game 6.

It didn’t take long for the Stars to take a stranglehold on this game, as Mattias Janmark sniped one over the left shoulder of Brian Elliott to give Dallas the 1-0 lead under five minutes into the game. Twenty seconds after that, Vern Fiddler redirected one top corner over Elliott to give the Stars a 2-0 lead, and leave the fans in a partial state of shock. They say a two-goal lead is the most dangerous lead in hockey, so for good measure, the Jason Spezza made it 3-0 late in the first period. It was aided by a falling d-man, but the toe-drag and shot by Spezza was pretty:

Spezza goal pic.twitter.com/SAZBT1qiMU

— Stephanie (@myregularface) May 10, 2016

St. Louis would get a goal in the second off the stick of Alex Steen, but the Stars would take a 3-1 lead into the third. It was an excruciating period to watch, if only because Dallas was sitting back so far, they may as well have been Zdeno Chara flying coach. This clarifies the point pretty well:

Total shots are 47-17 in Blues favor. Ton of possession, ton of chances in second period.

— Tom Timmermann (@tomtimm) May 10, 2016

Berglund jammed one home to make it a 3-2 game, but that was as close as St. Louis would get. They dominated pretty much start to finish, but Lehtonen made the saves when he had to, stopping 35 of 37. Elliott was pulled in favour of Jake Allen late in the first. 

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Nashville won another overtime game, this one pretty early on, to extend the series to a deciding seventh game. This series has been fantastic from the start. 

Similar to Dallas, though with a bit more time elapsed, the Sharks managed a multi-goal lead on the road in the first period. Chris Tierney tipped a point shot past Rinne for the first goal, and then he put away a scramble for the second one about 12 minutes into the game. It was an abysmal start for the Predators who, at the time of the second San Jose goal, had one shot on net in the game. 

The Predators did manage to sneak one past Martin Jones before the end of the first, though, as a broken James Neal partial break led to a Roman Josi backhand that went up-and-over Jones. It would be a 2-1 lead for San Jose after the first, and considering the flow of play, it was as good as the Preds could have hoped for.

Johansen had a nice bit of stickwork himself on the then-game-tying goal early in the second. Backhand five-hole was a nice touch:

He's got the moves like Johansen… He's got the moves like Johansen. #Preds #SJSvsNSH pic.twitter.com/VwfWDioV6g

— Thomas Willis (@TomAWillis) May 10, 2016

Nashville had a much better second period compared to the first, tie game or not. It certainly made for an intriguing third period, and how play would carry. 

Couture gave the Sharks the lead at the mid-point of the third, firing the puck past a falling Rinne on the power play. Rinne kind of lost his balance on the slide over, and it was an easy tally for Couture's fifth. It was San Jose's first power play of the game, and they are lethal in that situation. 

That brought us Wilson tying the game a couple of minutes later on a tic-tac-toe passing play. All this set the stage for another overtime. 

Arvidsson would corral a flipped puck, break in on his backhand, and go over the left shoulder of Jones to send the series to a justly-deserved Game 7. Maybe Jones should have had it, maybe not, but great skill from Arvidsson. 

Arvidsson wins it for Nashville. Game 7 on Thursday. pic.twitter.com/SVX0GY47cC

— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) May 10, 2016

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Here is one article from the USA Today saying Marc-Andre Fleury has to start Game 6 for the Penguins. Here’s another article, this one from the Pittsburgh Tribune, saying the same. Stop it. Stop.

Murray’s save percentage in his 21 NHL games his .933. His AHL save percentage this year was .931, and last year it was .941. His save percentage in his final season in the OHL was .920. Basically, for years now, Murray has been an elite goaltender at every level he’s played. In very recent memory, the Penguins have been sent packing in the playoffs due to shoddy goaltending. Why is this an issue? 

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There are a couple of players I think I will be avoiding next year in drafts. Those two guys are Kyle Palmieri and Jaromir Jagr. Before throwing your laptop/mobile device against a wall at seeing Jagr’s name in a “avoid him” section, hear me out.

Jagr will be in his Age 44 season next year. I know how well he takes care of himself, and how hard he trains. That’s fine. He’s still 44 years old. Father Time is undefeated against human beings.  

Even if we suppose Jagr defies his age and is pretty much the same level of player he was last year, the numbers around his production last year suggests regression. Consider:

• Jagr led all NHL forwards in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five this year. How? Florida shot 11.9-percent with Jagr on the ice last year at five-on-five. That was higher than any mark in the NHL in 2014-2015. Nikita Kucherov led last year, and his dropped over 3-percent to this year, and that led to 11 fewer five-on-five points this year compared to last, even though he played 79 more minutes, and actually had points on a higher percentage of goals scored. Regression isn't the lone reason for the drop, but looking for outliers is a good start. 
• Jagr shot 19.8-percent at five-on-five last year. His highest mark since the start of the 2007 season was 11.3-percent, and every other NHL season was under 10-percent.
• His shots per game have been declining for a couple of years now.

I think the aura around Jagr, and his production last year, means he easily gets drafted in the top-100. When it comes down to it, in roto fantasy leagues, I’d rather have Brendan Gallagher, for example.

The second guy I will be avoiding is Kyle Palmieri. One caveat here is we have to wait to see where his ADP will be. It seems like most fantasy owners don't rate the Devils high offensively. Coming off a 30-goal season, though, I’m not sure he gets forgotten about.

The big knock on Palmieri for next year is that he had a point on nearly 88-percent of goals scored by the Devils while he was on the ice at five-on-five (otherwise known as individual points percentage, or IPP). The only thing that would mitigate a decline in IPP is if the Devils score more often when he’s on the ice. This happened to Daniel Sedin between 2014-2015 and this year; his IPP dropped from 92.3-percent to 73.9-percent. Vancouver scored more often, though (nearly 2-percent more often). So even though he had a point on a lower percentage of goals, the increase in total goals scored meant that the drop in IPP was pretty much irrelevant as far as total production was concerned.

That would be how Palmieri repeats a 55-60 point season in New Jersey next year. And that can happen to almost any line at any time (just look at what the Henrique line did this year, at least until Cammalleri’s injury). Relying on that to happen, though, isn't recommended. 

Writing this is not to disparage Palmieri. He is a very good NHLer. I just don’t think the environment he’s in, and the regression in IPP, will be conducive to replicating last year’s stats.

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Teams rarely trade draft picks inside the top-5 of any draft. With this draft having a clear top three, though, it makes me wonder if the Oilers aren’t at least entertaining the idea of trading this one.

It’s clear that Edmonton doesn’t need more draft-age talent. With the likes of McDavid, Hall, Eberle, Draisaitl, RNH, Nurse, and Klefbom, there are enough top-end 25-and-unders on this roster that the future is somewhat secure. They have two years left on McDavid’s entry-level contract (also on Nurse’s), three years left on Eberle’s deal, and four on Hall’s. In short, I don’t think this is a team that can really wait five years for a prospect defenceman to develop. They need an impact defenceman now.

Two names that come to my mind right now as far as RFAs go are Jacob Trouba and Hampus Lindholm. Not that I’m saying that either the Jets or Ducks would be willing to part with them, but those are two young, burgeoning top-pair d-men the Oilers desperately need. Cap space would need to be worked out for Edmonton, but to me, it makes all the sense in the world to leverage that fourth overall pick in some sort of package for a top pair defenceman (they also have three third round picks this year). The Oilers can’t keep playing the waiting game.

I wrote this before this story came out about the team fielding calls on the pick. I honestly had no idea this had been a thing for the last few days. Interesting times in Edmonton.  

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Something that came across my Twitter feed recently was this article, simply called, “The Death of Traditional Scouting.” I won’t delve into all the details, but I should say that it mainly covers soccer, and not hockey. The sentiment remains the same, though. There is discussion on video, data, how clubs use scouts, and on the list goes. Take a gander through, it’s worth the time.

The need for improving on scouting is obvious. That’s not to say replace current scouts or anything like that, just that the way information is gathered, processed, and used needs an alteration. How often does a player carry the puck into the offensive zone as oppose to dumping it? Which players get into the danger scoring zones more often? Which defencemen complete the most zone-exit passes? Changing the questions doesn't change the desired result. That’s where using both eyeballs and data, including all the intermediate steps, would help.

At the very least, just please, please never describe a player as the Next Chris Pronger. That comparison has been beat to death.

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New Ottawa Senators coach Guy Boucher had a press conference yesterday, and there were a lot of interesting tidbits to come out of it. Notably, of course, is that Marc Crawford is joining the coaching staff as well. Needless to say, that will be a staff loaded with great quotes for the media.

More than that, though, were a couple of things Boucher said during the presser. Of course, the things said and the things actually done can often be two different things in the sports world, but it at least gives us a guideline of what to expect. These quotes came from Arpon Basu, and are in regards to Erik Karlsson:

@fuzzychris91 pic.twitter.com/EQH5AbUhQr

— Michael Clifford (@SlimCliffy) May 9, 2016

This makes all the sense of the world. When you have an all-world talent like Karlsson, you play to his strengths. You try to correct any perceived weakness, but you don’t do what other coaches have to players like Alex Ovechkin. You make sure your all-world talent plays to his strengths, and that this talent helps the others on the ice do the same. This is good news for fantasy, as owners shouldn’t expect Karlsson to temper his play too much, if at all.

The second quote is from Chris Stevenson of TSN, and should be music to fantasy owners’ ears:

Sounds like Boucher has big plans for Hoffman on the #senators power play. Mentioned his role in same breath as Stamkos and Tavares.

— Chris Stevenson (@CJ_Stevenson) May 9, 2016

Over the last two years, at five-on-five and among 240 forwards with at least 1500 minutes of ice time, Hoffman is ranked seventh in points/60 minutes, seventh in goals/60 minutes, and tied for 27^th in shots per 60 minutes. The one thing that has kept him from being a truly upper-tier fantasy option is the lack of power play points (16 combined over those two seasons). Should Hoffman consistently be used in a shooting situation on the PP, it’s hard to imagine him not approaching, or surpassing, 20 power play points. This could push him in the 65-70 point range, and really bring a lot of fantasy value. Put him on a watch list for next year, for now at least.

*Stats from Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, and War On Ice. Cap info from CapFriendly.