Ramblings: Blake, Tsyplakov Sign Extensions; Shooting Percentage (Positive) Regression Candidates (Jul 26)

Ian Gooding

2025-07-26

On Thursday evening, the Carolina Hurricanes announced they had signed Jackson Blake to an eight-year contract extension with a cap hit of $5.625 million. Blake has another year left on his entry-level contract, so he is now locked in for nine years total. That's serious security, as eight-year contracts will be going away as part of the next CBA to start in 2026-27. With the cap set to rise over the next few seasons, this deal could age well if Blake can break out successfully.

The Canes certainly aren't shy about signing young players with potential to long-term deals. One example is Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who signed an eight-year deal back in 2022 when he had not yet turned 22. Blake will be turning 22 in early August, having just completed his rookie season. His 34 points was 10th among rookies in 2024-25.

The Islanders have avoided arbitration with Maxim Tsyplakov, signing him to a two-year extension with a cap hit of $2.25 million. After being signed as a free agent from the KHL, the 26-year-old Tsyplakov finished his first NHL season with 10 goals and 35 points in 77 games. Tsyplakov projects to be a middle-six forward for the Islanders who should receive second-unit power-play minutes. That doesn't carry huge upside, but he could be a waiver-wire add at some point during the season if he gets hot or the Islanders get into injury trouble.

The Rangers have signed veteran Conor Sheary to a PTO. Sheary spent most of 2024-25 with the Lightning's AHL affiliate in Syracuse, scoring 61 points in 59 games. He played just five games for the Bolts in 2024-25, not registering a point. His contract with the Lightning was also terminated in June. Sheary is at least familiar with new Rangers coach Mike Sullivan from their time together in Pittsburgh, which included two Stanley Cups.

In case you missed it, the five Canadian junior players on trial for sexual assault were found not guilty on Thursday. As expected, opinions on whether this was the correct verdict were divided on social media. Although the evidence provided may not have reached the level of proof beyond a reasonable doubt that is required in the Canadian justice system, this case clearly displayed the negative effects of hockey culture, where toxic masculinity is far too common.  

What comes next for these five players is not clearly known. Currently, these players remain ineligible to play in the NHL, but they could be cleared to return to professional hockey soon. A suspension could also be formally announced, or it could come in the form of the players remaining ineligible to return for an indefinite period extending into the season. Keep in mind that players like Slava Voynov, Jake Virtanen, and Mitchell Miller have had current or potential NHL careers grounded permanently because of off-ice incidents.

Out of the five, Carter Hart jumps to mind the most as a player who could resume an NHL career. Hart last appeared in a game on January 20, 2024, so it's been over a year for him. That's not a Gabriel Landeskog-length layoff, but Hart will probably be rusty. In fact, we probably shouldn't expect him to ever reach the upside he showed as a top goaltending prospect, assuming he returns. Teams will face an ethical dilemma of whether he should be given the privilege of receiving another NHL contract after the facts of this case were made public. Not guilty does not carry the same meaning as innocent, so a team signing Hart could receive negative PR backlash.

Edmonton currently seems like the most likely destination for Hart, both from a team needs standpoint and history of granting players second chances after transgressions (Evander Kane, Corey Perry). On top of that, Hart is also from Edmonton. If in fact the Oilers decide that Hart is worth adding to potentially improve their goaltending, he could fall into the category of high risk but high reward.  

The 2025-26 Fantasy Guide will be available for download soon! July 29… or maybe earlier. Projections by team and by point totals, sleepers, drafted players, rookies, goalies, advanced stats, and much more! Get it at the Dobber Sports Shop on its own or as part of a package.

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Last week I profiled four players who might be in line for a decline in scoring due to higher-than-normal shooting percentages last season. Today I'll flip it the other way with players who fell victim to unlucky shooting percentages last season and whether more goals could be on the way. This list is restricted to forwards with a minimum of 40 games played, minimum five goals, and shooting percentage under 10%, all in 2024-25.

Carter Verhaeghe

You could argue that the Panthers' quest for back-to-back Stanley Cups has had a negative impact on Verhaeghe's fantasy value. To explain, his season goal total has fallen from 42 goals in 2022-23 to 34 goals in 2023-24 to just 20 goals in 2024-25. Part of that is luck-based from an analytics perspective, as his 8.3 SH% and 2.2 PTS/60 last season were both lower than career averages. Verhaeghe's shots per game has gradually decreased over the past two seasons to 3.0 SOG/GP, but not at an alarming rate.

However, reduced power-play time is a reason for the decreased goal total and could continue to be. During the playoffs, Verhaeghe averaged just under half of the Panthers' available power-play minutes (47.6%), with the Panthers likely running back nearly the same cast of characters this coming season. Florida's PP2 unit isn't a terrible one, with Verhaeghe scoring four of his seven playoff goals with the man advantage. Verhaeghe should probably still be drafted in most fantasy leagues, but it may not be easy for him to score 30+ goals and 70+ points again.  

William Karlsson

Karlsson's overall production in 2024-25 plummeted, with the drop from 30 goals in 2023-24 to just nine goals in 2024-25 most noticeable. Part of the reason was that Karlsson played only 53 games due to a lower-body injury that might have been a hamstring issue. However, Karlsson's shooting percentage also shot down from 17.1% in 2023-24 to just 7.6% in 2024-25. Karlsson's season-by-season shooting percentage has been all over the map throughout his career, including a 23.4 SH% rate during his out-of-nowhere 43-goal campaign with the original Golden Misfits.

Expect Karlsson to bounce back to some degree, assuming he can remain healthy. With a games-played deduction, Karlsson can probably reach somewhere between 40-50 points after just 29 points in 2024-25. It's worth noting that he recorded 11 points over his last 15 games in the final quarter despite scoring at just a 45-point pace over the entire season.

Nils Hoglander

After a 24-goal season where he showed some promise, Hoglander was held to just eight goals in 2024-25. Hoglander's season was done in by a nearly three-month stretch where he did not score a goal, within that a 21-game point drought as well. With a slump like that, coach Rick Tocchet had no choice but to bench Hoglander. The good news is that Hoglander was able to salvage something from the season, registering 10 points over his last 15 games. Hoglander was snakebitten from a shooting percentage perspective, seeing this number cut in half from 20.0% in 2023-24 to 9.6% in 2024-25.

New coach Adam Foote could decide to play Hoglander more often, as he has consistently averaged just over 12 minutes per games over the past three season. Hoglander will need to become more of a high-event player as he was earlier in his career. Part of that will involve increasing his shot total back up to over two shots per game. More deployment in the top 6 and on the power play will help, although Hoglander will need to show he can earn that before he can become relevant in fantasy leagues.

Joel Farabee

The Flames had high hopes for Farabee in their playoff push after acquiring him and Morgan Frost from the Flyers. However, Farabee could only record six points (3 G, 3 A) in his 31 games with Calgary. The low goal total was affected by a low shooting percentage of 5.8% with the Flames and 7.3% for the season. That's notable because Farabee has normally held a double-digit shooting percentage.

Farabee's disappointing season of 25 points in 81 games was also impacted by a 6.0 5-on-5 SH% and 1.2 PTS/60. While he should rebound a bit in 2025-26 to a more typical 30-40-point range, his situation in Calgary doesn't seem to be a whole lot better than the one in Philly. With three years left on a $5 million cap hit, Farabee will need to prove himself to potentially avoid a buyout.

Follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads @goodsfantasyhockey and Bluesky @goodsfantasyhockey.bsky.social

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