Ramblings: Burns, Fabbri, my Smythe picks and more (May 18)

Dobber

2016-05-18

Rambling about the greatness of Burns, Fabbri’s sneaky-good year, and more Justin Schultz…

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Brent Burns, Conn Smythe winner? If the Sharks win the Cup, you bet your ass!

Sure, Logan Couture leads the league and points and perhaps he finishes that way. Or perhaps Joe Pavelski ends up taking it. But Burns is a defenseman and he’s second in scoring with 18 points in 14 games. And he’s been so key. I think the Sharks would survive if Couture went down with an injury. But if Burns was hurt, the Sharks would be out so quickly the NHL would have to check the replay to make sure they weren’t eliminated in three.

My Smythe pick for each team, if they won the Cup today:

Burns

Brian Elliott

Matt Murray

Nikita Kucherov (but this one is a toss-up between several players)

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The hits in the game were 32-27 in favor of the Blues. On Sunday, David Backes alone had 11 hits versus the entire Sharks’ team managing just 14. So there’s a key difference in this game. Joe Pavelski led the way with seven hits. He averages about two per game so that’s what we call “stepping up”.

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Kudos to the rookie Robby Fabbri for his 13 points in 16 games. It actually leads the Blues in scoring (tied). He finished the NHL season with 18 points in 23 games, meaning he has 31 points in his last 39 regular season and playoff games. That’s a 65-point pace!

Maybe Vladimir Tarasenko was a little distracted? Earlier in the day he became a father to Aleksandr, who was born in the morning.

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Did you see this? Or hear about “goalie-glove gate”? The puck went through Matt Murray’s glove. Some people refute it and say that it went over the glove. You tell me. This is the Anton Stralman goal from Monday:

I’m convinced that it slipped through the mesh there. Convinced! All the skeptics can tell me otherwise until they’re blue in the face…

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There’s been a lot of discussion about Penguins’ pending UFA defenseman Justin Schultz and what to expect. But I think we can all agree on the basics. He disappointed tremendously in Edmonton. He’s being used much more properly with Pittsburgh and he’s improved as a result. And he’s not going to get $4 million this summer (qualifying offer) so he’ll be a UFA. The odds are pointing towards him being a bust and perhaps out of the league in two years. But things ‘could’ theoretically pan out. So what the discussion is about is – how much stock do you put in that ‘could’? Arguments range from 1% chance to 99% chance. I think as a secondary option, the way he’s being used with Pittsburgh, he could carve out a fine career as a 35-point guy. After a couple of years of learning the ropes out of the spotlight, perhaps on another team he could get another shot at more responsibility and get back on track for that 50-point upside we wondered if he would reach. Where he goes is important. On some teams, he’ll play his way to the press box and then out of the league. On others, it could be that scenario I just painted. How will I play it? I’ll ask about him in my keeper league and if I can get him for a low draft pick I’m doing it. If I already own him, I’ll hang onto him for another year because I doubt I’ll get much for him. But I think it’s 50-50 on that 35-point thing I mentioned. And maybe odds that are small, like 3%, on the 50-point idea I floated.

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Evgeni Malkin has gone six games without a point.

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The AHL playoffs have a bit of a break between rounds, but business picks back up on Friday. The semi-finals matchups are:

Toronto Marlies (Toronto) vs. Hershey Bears (Washington)

Lake Erie Monsters (Columbus) vs. Ontario Reign (Los Angeles Kings – ‘Kings’/’Reign’…get it?)

Toronto prospect Connor Carrick is tied for the AHL lead in playoff points with 14 in just 10 games. In fact, the next player behind him that’s still playing is Zach Werenski, another defenseman (Columbus prospect). Werenski has 10 points. So chances are – Carrick could hang on and win it.

The leading playoff goal scorer – for now, because his team has been eliminated – is Detroit prospect Tyler Bertuzzi (seven goals in nine games).

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In case you missed it yesterday, DobberProspects posted Ramblings right here. Since Peter Harling took over as managing editor, the Ramblings have been like clockwork. If you check out the archive here, you’ll notice that since March 1st there have been 54 prospects Ramblings – that breaks down to two Ramblings for every three days. So you may have been missing out on some nice prospect tidbits geared towards helping your keeper squad…

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Those of you interested in the World Hockey Championships, you can check out the playoff bracket here and scoring leaders here. Of note, the leading scorer is Russian Vadim Shipachev, who is undrafted and 29, and he led his team SKA St. Petersburg in scoring this season with 60 points. That topped his teammate, Ilya Kovalchuk, but 11 points. Second in tournament scoring is Artemi Panarin (12 points in seven games). In third place – Patrick Laine.

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Representing Kazakhstan – Nigel Dawes. Remember him? I just found that interesting.

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Do you think Corey Perry did this on purpose? Look what he did to Patrick Laine (this summer’s likely second-overall Draft pick):

 

Laine would return to the game. Perry later denied even knowing about the incident in question.

 

 

11 Comments

  1. David 2016-05-18 at 00:58

    Perry is such a cheap prick. A disgrace to the country.

  2. Gordonomicon 2016-05-18 at 04:07

    1. That puck sure as hell looks like it went through Murray’s glove!
    2. Of course Perry meant to do it. He’s an asshole.

  3. Jeremy Campbell 2016-05-18 at 08:20

    Man oh man why did I take Doughty over Burns in my playoff pool?! What a beast, who certainly looks the part. Connor Carrick is sure a dman beast too, great to see for Leafs fans! San Jose are going to be hard to beat, it finally looks like it’s their time, and it’s good to see!

    • Dobber Sports 2016-05-18 at 08:57

      I thought that Carrick acquisition was incredible. I can’t believe how little was made of it at the time

  4. Chris Liggio 2016-05-18 at 08:30

    I miss Nigel Dawes on the Rangers not even scared to say it.

  5. Striker 2016-05-18 at 09:42

    I agree on 3 but my StL pick is Backes. He gets 2nd line ice time & is 9th in PP TOI/GP in StL. #1 penalty killing unit, tied for 6 for points overall, tied for 3rd in goals overall, has 3 game winners, 2 in OT & hitting everything that moves, leads the playoffs in hits by forwards by a significant margin. Every other player above him in points gets 1st PP time for their respective teams if not icetime.

  6. Striker 2016-05-18 at 09:56

    I had Schultz in 2 of my 3 keeper leagues. Dropped him in February finally as not a hope I could have protected him. I agree he’s young enough that in the right situation he can potentially be salvaged. I don’t see it happening in Pittsburgh as even if they trade Fleury Pittsburgh isn’t qualifying him at 3.9 mil per & someone will offer him more money than what Pittsburgh can justify for what would at best be a #5 Dman for them & 3rd option PP guy at D.

    There are several teams that could use what Schultz has & potentially rebuild his game & confidence. NJ would be the best landing spot as the have no clear #1 PP guy. They used Sclemko & Moore primarily in that role last season. There are several other teams that could use a #2 PP guy & 5/6 depth Dman.

    Schultz is way to young to write off & has shown some offensive abilities in the past. His career maybe salvageable & I agree he’s worth a gamble. My leagues are all points driven & if you drafted him in the 20 to 25 real life point range, we add fantasy points for D goals, SHG’s & OTG’s. That could be great value potentially as in the right situation he could push 30 to 35 points & if everything played out perfectly maybe even 40 but I off set that risk to no more than 25 point draft range unless you award for other categories he contributes in & if some one buys in sooner than I’m willing, so be it there are always other safer choices.

    • Cal Growette 2016-05-18 at 21:37

      I forsee Schultz signing a short term, incentive laden contract to stay with the Pens. Letang and Maata are bandaids and Schultz will get plenty of PP time when they are hurt…

      • Striker 2016-05-19 at 07:56

        As an RFA to retain Schultz’s rights Pittsburgh would need to qualify Shultz at his current rate of salary which is 3.9 million. Should they not he becomes a UFA & is free to sign with anyone for what ever he is able to get including Pittsburgh.

        Only players on their ELC’s; Entry level contracts, & players over the age of 35 are allowed contracts with incentives so that’s not an option for Schultz with any team as he is neither of those things.

        Will Pittsburgh out bid the other teams interested in Schultz as a UFA? My next question for you with 22 players currently signed, Bennett an RFA needing to be resigned & less than 100K in cap space currently with a cap of 74 million how is that going to work?

  7. larrylintz 2016-05-18 at 23:57

    makes me hope Perry dznt make Team Canada in autumn. what a thuggiish play

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