Top 10 fourth-year players in 2016-17

Tom Collins

2016-06-06

The Top 10 players to keep an eye on, who enter their fourth year in 2016-17…

 

It's that time of year again when the trade market starts to heat up in fantasy circles. It seems as if things start to slow down in April and May before revamping back up again in June. And with good reason. The NHL draft combine this past weekend starts to whet the appetite for fantasy GMs. Then the NHL draft in less than three weeks and then NHL free agency the week after. So poolies are starting to get back into the trade habit again.

So it's never too early to look ahead to next season. Many fantasy GMs subscribe to the theory of the fourth-year player breaking out. Below you'll find the top 10 fourth-year players for next season with the best chances of breaking out. These guys could be worth trading for. Or on the flip side, maybe you can trade them for higher value knowing you can sell your fellow GMs on the fourth-season breakout theory.

You'll notice the omission of some notable fourth-year guys as players such as Evgeny Kuznetsov already had their breakout seasons.

 

10. Valeri Nichushkin

For the record, I'm including eight-game 2014-15 campaign as a season since he spent it on the injured reserve and not in the minors (I usually have a 20-game minimum for it to be considered a season). This year really should have been a much better season for Nichushkin. His top linemate was Jason Spezza and Nichushkin also saw quite some time with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. But Nich just couldn't get anything going and finished with just 29 points in 79 games. His low power play time didn't help matters. A 45-point season at this stage would be considered a breakout for a player many are starting to label as a bust.

 

9. Boone Jenner

Jenner had a bit of a breakout season this year with 30 goals, easily surpassing his previous high of 16. But he had just 49 points. There were some good signs for Jenner that bodes well for next year. He played pretty well for most of the season. He started with 16 points in 22 games seeing plenty of ice time and finished the season with 15 in 22. He can flirt with 60 points if he can stay consistent for the whole season.

 

8. Carl Soderberg

Soderberg's time on ice has been steady increasing each season, from 14:16 in 2013-14 to 18:01 this year. And his power play time has gone up a little bit each year as well. But his shooting percentage has decreased over the same time period. Still, he's been consistent points-wise for each of his first three seasons (48, 44 and 51). He should be in line to hit the 60-point mark this season if all the pieces fall into the right place.

 

7. Brock Nelson

Nelson spent a good chunk of the season last year playing on a line with John Tavares. But he also spent a good chunk of the season playing with Josh Bailey and Nikolay Kulemin. It is good that he got plenty of power play time with the top unit though. There is going to be an open spot on the top line if Kyle Okposo leaves so there's a better opportunity for Nelson to stick on that top line. He's been a 40-point guy for the last two seasons. Now will be his best chance to see if he can get in the 50s.

 

6. Elias Lindholm

Lindholm started off really slow this season — like glacier-slow. He had just three points in his first 20 games. He was much better the rest of the season with 36 points in 62 games. That's a 48-point pace over 82 games. I like the fact that his time on ice has increased every year, as has his shots and power play points. I think he can break through next year with a 55-point season at the minimum.

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5. Morgan Rielly

Rielly finds himself in a great position heading into next season. Rielly had a career high in ice time by an extra three minutes per game and also had career highs in goals (nine) and points (36). With the Leafs about to get more offensive help with Austin Matthews and possibly Steven Stamkos, that will bode well for Rielly. Don't forget that Rielly's power play time skyrocketed once Dion Phaneuf was traded so there's not much of a challenge there.

 

4. Tomas Hertl

After a hot start to his NHL career — he had 25 points in 37 games in his rookie season — Hertl's progressed has slowed down somewhat. But he did have a respectable season with 21 goals and 47 points this year. Hertl is a prime candidate for a breakthrough season. He plays frequently with Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton (those three were on the same line for 61 per cent of Hertl's even strength shifts this season). This playoff run should also boost his confidence.

 

3. Sami Vatanen

Vatanen has yet to become a 40-point player, but I'm confident he will hit the 50-point mark next season. For starters, he's the Ducks top power play quarterback. And whoever becomes the Ducks new coach will realize that and give him even more of an opportunity to succeed instead of splitting the power play duties among four dmen.

 

2. Mike Hoffman

I think Hoffman has a good chance to be the Sens top forward for points next year with a good shot at 75. The new coach will go a long way to seeing to that. Hoffman won't be in the doghouse all the time like he was last season and should see a spike in ice time and better line mates on a consistent basis.

 

1. Seth Jones

Next year will be the season that Jones finally breaks through as a great fantasy option. No longer stuck behind Shea Weber and Roman Josi, Jones will have a full opportunity to be the top guy. His ice time skyrocketed almost five extra minutes per game once he was dealt to Columbus. More impressive was that he went from around 0.3 points per game with Nashville over three seasons to around 0.5 points per game with Columbus. It all adds up to at least a 40-point year next season if not more. 

 

 

18 Comments

  1. Rick Roos 2016-06-06 at 10:12

    First and foremost, I fully realize this is a very tough list to assemble and it lends itself to a lot more “armchair quarterbacking” that most. Here’s my 2 cents.

    I think a player should be disqualified from “fourth year” status if he played top tier pro hockey elsewhere or is older than 25, which in this case would remove Carl Soderberg (both criteria) and Mike Hoffman (age 26).

    Also, if you put Nichushkin in there despite him playing only 8 games in one of his three seasons, then that opens the list to lots of other players (e.g., Jarnkrok, Dumba, Maatta, Ryan Murray).

    And are you talking about a breakout in relation to past totals, or passing a certain threshold? For example, Tom Wilson probably will surge past his career high of 23 points in 2016-17, but still might not top 40 points. Does he not qualify?

    Also, by including a 51 point player in Soderberg (and a 49 point player in Jenner), that begs the question of where you draw the line in terms of guys who’ve already broken out? Does Barkov (career high 59) not make it? How about Monahan, or MacKinnon, or Trocheck?

    In terms of your specific choices, I’d take out Nelson because I just don’t see him doing much better next season. Or put it this way – will he do much better next season than, say, a Hampus Lindholm, who could well be traded or be gifted better minutes if Vatanen is dealt?

    • Dobber Sports 2016-06-06 at 10:26

      If it’s from my analysis in 2003 then the criteria is three NHL seasons of 25 games or more. Age matters not. Other leagues matter not. Fourth year is fourth year

      • Rick Roos 2016-06-06 at 11:26

        Fair enough – that would rule out Nichushkin, and I still think it really pushes the envelope to include Soderberg.

      • Mark McAuley 2016-06-06 at 18:45

        I agree. This has to do with predicting breakouts, not how old a player is when they do so or how many games they’ve played in the pros.

    • Tom Collins 2016-06-06 at 11:50

      I don’t consider players that played pro hockey elsewhere as part of a season. That means Panarin (for example) would have just played his sixth or seventh professional season instead of his first year.

      I did look at those other guys you mention (Jarnkrok, Dumba, Maatta, Ryan Murray, etc.), but I don’t feel like they will break out this season. Murray, for example, has to contend with the fact that Seth Jones is the top guy there, and Jack Johnson and David Murray also battling for ice time.

      I also disagree with Wilson getting 40 points. He’s a third/fourth liner that doesn’t get any power play time. He’ll be lucky to get 30. But I think he’ll be closer to 25. He’s too much of a fighter/hits/PIM guy to be that dependable for 30.

      As for others, ie- MacKinnon, Barkov, Monahan, Trocheck, etc., I don’t think they’ll break out, or at least not have that great a season that it’s considered a breakout. Trocheck won’t get much more than his 53 points. Barkov will probably get injured again and finish around 60-65 points. MacKinnon and Monahan getting to 65 points only would be two points more that their career highs (and that’s where I peg them right now for next season). But Soderberg and Jenner going from 49 to 65 would be a huge difference.

      • Rick Roos 2016-06-06 at 12:53

        All fair responses; and as usual my comments are just meant to spur the discussion and not in any way to undermine what are consistently solid columns from you.

        • Tom Collins 2016-06-06 at 13:18

          I don’t take them that way either. It’s always good to have discussion. Obviously people are going to disagree on parts of my lists.

          As a note I wanted to add, I looked at probably 100 to 150 players that have played around the three to six seasons mark (some sites will list one game as a season) to figure out who should be on the list. This was probably my most researched column in terms of looking at the number of players before whittling them down.

          Some other names on my list that I seriously debated including: Mattias Ekholm, Toffoli, Krug, Tatar and Trouba.

          • Mark McAuley 2016-06-06 at 18:56

            I’m a big fan of Toffoli and would like to see him up his totals, but I have to wonder if that’s likely with Sutter still at the helm.
            Krug’s shoulder surgery might affect his production to start the season, especially if he’s not able to attend training camp or play in the pre-season. Besides, he should have broken out last year and saw his goals drop by 8 and only improved his points-per-game by 0.04.It’s not likely, but what if he’s not re-signed by the B’s and goes to a team where he’s not the go-to offensive D?
            Tatar minus Datsyuk plus a rapidly declining Zetterberg doesn’t bode well, does it? Add Stamkos to the mix and I’d definitely add him to the list.
            Overall, a great list.

      • Cory 2016-06-08 at 11:25

        “I don’t consider players that played pro hockey elsewhere as part of a season.”

        Carl Soderberg? The guy is 30 years old.

        • Tom Collins 2016-06-08 at 11:31

          So he’s immune to a fourth-year breakout?

          • Cory 2016-06-08 at 13:35

            Maybe I misunderstood the comment I quoted.

            Are you saying the you DO consider Panarin to have played his ‘first’ season as opposed to his seventh?

            I read it as the opposite.

          • Tom Collins 2016-06-09 at 08:37

            Yes, Panarin is in his first season. I was using him as an example that if you use pro seasons elsewhere, some guys would never hit their fourth season breakout for fantasy purposes.

        • Dobber Sports 2016-06-08 at 11:44

          If anomalies like these are part of the original analysis that gave the original conclusion, then anomalies like these need to be included in future examples.

          • Cory 2016-06-08 at 13:04

            Not disputing that.

            I guess I should have said “The guy has played [a confusing number of seasons but I think it’s 5] in the Swedish Elite League” rather than “The guy is 30 years old”.

            Is the SEL not a good enough league to count as playing pro hockey elsewhere?

          • Dobber Sports 2016-06-08 at 14:18

            Yes, and people are free to use whatever definition they want to, of course. But if they use my 14-year-old analysis then we’re not looking at playing pro hockey. We’re looking at playing NHL hockey. Fourth NHL year.

  2. SB M 2016-06-07 at 11:10

    I think Vatanen is a candidate to be traded, in which case all bets are off and an analysis based solely on his role as Ducks PP quarterback will be meaningless. I have Vatanen in my keeper pool so I’m a bit torn – on the one hand he currently has a good PP role on a good team, but he’s also facing stiff competition in Anaheim. Hopefully if he gets moved, it will be to a situation where he will get all the best PP opportunities.

    • Tom Collins 2016-06-08 at 09:40

      For this column, I can only base it on where they are playing right now. Vatanen being traded to Montreal would be different than being traded to Pittsburgh which would be completely different than being traded to Vancouver. I can only go by where is, not where he might hypothetically be come October.

  3. Jeffrey Zon 2016-06-07 at 12:46

    Thanks for the article Tom! I think this piece should be linked to the research about fourth year players that illustrates the breakout trend. Perhaps another Dobber column could re-post or refresh the analysis on NHL players’ performances in their fourth years. Based on the chatter in the comments, it might also be worthwhile to look at what players seem to exemplify the trend. If it’s mostly players that entered the NHL at 18 or 19, then we can stop including experienced players (like Soderberg) on lists like this, since even though they’re technically fourth year players, they’re not part of the player group that truly experiences breakouts. Just my two cents and would definitely love to see more about this topic.

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