Ramblings: A deeper look at the Expansion Draft, Blackhawks, Filip Forsberg, Cam Ward and more (June 11)
Neil Parker
2016-06-11
Take the time to read an article about Gordie Howe, if you haven't already. The stories about and admiration for Mr. Hockey really piled in yesterday, and his impact was second to none. The longevity of his impact is equally impressive.
And on a lighter note, a Gordie Howe hat trick has to be one of the coolest stats in all of sports.
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The Prospect Guide will be receiving an update tomorrow with a mock draft and additional player profiles.
I'm still working through it, and suggest you do as well.
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Thanks for this get-off-may-lawn moment, Guy Lafleur. Wouldn't it be nice to just let dudes grow their beards in peace? Plus, Brent Burns and Joe Thornton have been in beard mode since December.
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In a mailbag article, Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun Times, discussed the situation the Blackhawks have found themselves in.
"A big reason why Bowman is so willing to part with picks and players is his faith in the Hawks’ scouting department. There always seems to be a Dennis Rasmussen or Erik Gustafsson to be found (and sometimes even an Artemi Panarin) to fill out the roster. The draft and NHL-level free agency aren’t the only way to flesh out rosters these days. Europe is a treasure trove of unmined talent. And the Hawks went treasure-hunting again this offseason by signing Czech defenseman Michal Kempny, who’s expected to contend for a roster spot right away. Top prospects such as defensemen Ville Pokka and Gustav Forsling, and forwards Tyler Motte, Ryan Hartman and possibly Nick Schmaltz (if he chooses to leave college and sign) are on the verge, too."
"Bowman’s trades didn’t pay off. But they don’t have to kneecap the entire team. Smart drafting, savvy scouting and the willingness of free agents to take less money to play in Chicago should keep the Hawks contending for the near future, no matter how ugly their cap situation is (and it’s ugly)."
Lazerus suspects Richard Panik will be back, and Panik checks out as an endgame flier. He has shown some offensive ability and should receive a prominent role. With even a half season of top-six minutes, Panik could easily flirt with 40 points.
Sure, the Blackhawks also have Teuvo Teravainen who could jump up, but having something resembling a three-line attack is likely preferred by Chicago. Additionally, Jonathan Toews taking on inferior linemates is nothing new.
And finally, Marian Hossa is in a fast decline and injury prone.
It's unlikely we see a full season of production and a run at 50 points from Panik, but for stretches, it wouldn't see surprising to see him score at that space over a 20- to 30-game span.
It's all league dependant, but Chicago doesn't have many alternatives.
It also looks like Andrew Shaw will not stick with the organization. Remember that discussion about overpaying middling talents, Bryan Bickell has left Chicago's hands tied. Unless Shaw plays for peanuts and handshakes, Chicago can't fit him under the cap.
After winning three Stanley Cups in six years, it would be surprising to see another team give the Blackhawks a break and return close to fair value in a deal. With that said, Shaw is likely a coveted young player.
He's a low-end fantasy option in rotisserie setups because of his ability to tip the scales across multiple categories. However, his offensive upside is extremely limited, and Shaw might never see linemates as talented as he did for stretches with Chicago, especially on the power play.
It's a case where his name value will likely outweigh his fantasy value in most circles, and it's only in deep leagues where he's viable.
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A decision is coming on Cam Ward, and Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer suspects Ward will be re-signed.
This blew my mind. I feel like we've raked Ward over the coals lately somewhere on the site, so there is no need to dig deep into Ward's awful play.
He's been able to return a mediocre goals-against average the past two seasons with a 2.40 and 2.41 GAA, respectively. But his save percentage has sat at .910 and .909. Additionally, he's won just 55 games through 101 starts.
Only during the 2010-11 season has Ward posted a save percentage north of .920 and it was accompanied by a 2.56 GAA.
When he won the Conn Smythe, Ward had a .882 Sv% and a 3.68 GAA.
He hasn't ever been good. And the Hurricanes look primed for another step back, or at best more of the same, before moving forward. Ward only strengthens the likelihood of another awful season, too.
Stay clear.
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This is an article about DeAndre Levy, a linebacker for the Detroit Lions, discussing the problematic manner injured players are being — and have been — treated during and while recovering from injuries.
The NHL should be keeping an eye on how these issues are dealt with because they have their own battle ahead, if they're not already in over their heads. Hopefully player safety off the ice is at the forefront going forward, too.
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With flight back to California for Game 6, Sharks have now traveled 24,848 miles in this postseason per @ESPNStatsInfo.
— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) June 10, 2016
By comparison, even including flight back to Pittsburgh after Game 6, the Penguins only at 14,120 miles. 9,012 of that came in SCF.
— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) June 10, 2016
After reading that, it made me wonder about the impact travel could have on Western Conference teams later in the season, and in particular the California trio.
Overall, it doesn't seem to have had a big impact this season, but after doing the research to check in, it only seems fitting to share.
San Jose
Los Angeles
Anaheim
So, overall, it doesn't say a lot. Some players held up, and some players showed untypical home-road splits. Above all, though, these are professionals, and too much travel isn't going to have a significant impact.
The exercise serves as a reminder to look for easy and tough stretches and make lineup adjustments accordingly, though. This is especially true in daily games, as picking on teams playing back-to-back road games or playing their sixth road game in less than two weeks usually wears a club down.
Still, savvy in-season moves can help squeeze the most juice out of your roster, and if dealing a streaky player with a tough stretch of road games ahead helps, leave no stone unturned.
Additionally, the examples above are the best players from their respective teams, and it is the secondary scorers who are more prone to production droughts. So, keep that in mind, too.
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Filip Forsberg's going to be a high-end fantasy option for the next five years. And recently, I looked at him here.
And here is an article looking at what his next contract will likely look like with the two market-value comparables being Brandon Saad's (six years at $36 million) and Vladimir Tarasenko's (eight years at $60 million) contracts.
Forsberg wants to return to Nashville, and the Predators want him back. Expect a long-term, big-dollar deal.
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This is a solid account of the latest happenings concerning the expansion process and details.
A few highlights:
- Teams have to expose at least two skaters with at least 40 games played in the previous season or 70 combined over the previous two seasons.
- Teams will be permitted to ask players with a no-movement clause to waive it to be included in the expansion draft.
- Any player traded during a set period cannot be reacquired until after Jan. 1 the following season. The time period wasn't explicitly highlights, but it would make sense that spans from after the regular season finishes up to the expansion draft.
- Players with two years of professional experience or less will be exempt from process.
It’s really light out there, so I dove into some of the team specifics.
Keep in mind, I took the time to go through each team's GeneralFanager page, but I didn't slave over every detail. I also likely missed a player or two, but the point was to present a next-to-perfect list of players who could be impacted by the expansion draft.
Also, I didn't crunch the numbers or dig deep into each team for who they'd likely prefer as their seventh forward. Plus, so much can change over the next year, as unrestricted free agents are essentially excluded from the following lists.
Plus, buyouts this summer will have a huge impact.
In short, this took longer than expected and is by no means a complete list, but I don't know if there is anything better out there. So be kind. I'm sleep deprived because of this endeavor, after all.
Here are players on non-movement and no-trade deals who could hinder a team's flexibility.
Anaheim: Kevin Bieksa
Boston: Matt Beleskey, Zdeno Chara, Dennis Seidenberg
Buffalo: Matt Moulson, Josh Gorges
Calgary: Matt Stajan
Chicago: Marian Hossa
Colorado: Carl Soderberg
Columbus: David Clarkson, Scott Hartnell, Fedor Tyutin
Dallas: Kari Lehtonen
Detroit: Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson, Jimmy Howard
Florida: David Bolland
Los Angeles: Vincent Lecavalier, Dustin Brown
Minnesota: Jason Pominville
Monteal: Jeff Petry, Alexei Emelin
Nashville: Pekka Rinne
New Jersey: Travis Zajac, Ryane Clowe, Andy Greene
NYR: Marc Staal, Dan Girardi
Ottawa: Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf, Marc Methot
Pittsburgh: Patric Hornqvist, Marc-Andre Fleury
St. Louis: Jay Bouwmeester
Tampa Bay: Ryan Callahan, Matthew Carle, Jason Garrison, Braydon Coburn
Toronto: Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak, Nathan Horton
Winnipeg: Mark Stuart, Tobias Enstrom
Here are some of the potential unprotected players from each team, as of the current rosters.
Anaheim: Frederik Andersen, Simon Despres, Sami Vatanen
Arizona: Zbynek Michalek
Boston: Jimmy Hayes, Adam McQuaid, Kevan Miller
Buffalo: Cody Franson, Marcus Foligno, Johan Larsson, Mark Pysyk
Calgary: Lance Bouma
Carolina: Ryan Murphy, Brett Pesce
Chicago: Trevor van Riemsdyk
Colorado: Calvin Pickard, Nick Holden
Columbus: Matt Calvert, Alexander Wennberg, William Karlsson, David Savard
Dallas: Mattias Janmark, Antoine Roussel
Detroit: Petr Mrazek, Tomas Jurco, Teemu Pulkkinen, Andreas Athanasiou
Edmonton: Patrick Maroon
Florida: Rocco Grimaldi, Jared McCann, Jaromir Jagr
Los Angeles: Brayden McNabb, Matt Greene, Dwight King, Kyle Clifford, Nick Shore
Minnesota: Jason Zucker, Erik Haula, Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, Darcy Kuemper
Montreal: Nathan Beaulieu, Mike Condon
Nashville: Ryan Ellis
New Jersey: John Moore, Jon Merrill, Damon Severson, Jacob Josefson, Sergey Kalinin
NYI: Thomas Hickey, Calvin de Haan, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin
NYR: Kevin Hayes, Oscar Lindberg, Jesper Fast, Kevin Klein, Brady Skjei, Dylan McIlrath
Ottawa: Cody Ceci, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Matt Puempel
Pittsburgh: Matt Murray, Eric Fehr, Tom Kuhnhackl, Derrick Pouliot, Brian Dumoulin, Ian Cole
St. Louis: Carl Gunnarsson
Quick-hit analysis
Buffalo – There will be some young talent left available and likely some surprising names.
Columbus – Fedor Tyutin has a no-movement clause, but Columbus also has Jack Johnson, David Savard, Ryan Murray and Seth Jones. They're going to lose a very good player. But it might not be from the blue line, as one of Alexander Wennberg, Boone Jenner and Cam Atkinson will also likely be left for grabs.
Detroit – As it stands, Danny Dekeyser and Petr Mrazek will be left unprotected if there isn't a deal. Jimmy Howard, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall and Jonathan Ericsson all have no-trade clauses.
Los Angeles – Everything depends on whether Vincent Lecavalier retires. It is likely he does, which would mean the Kings could protect another forward and not leave much of an asset available.
Minneaota – It will be an interesting situation to see who the Wild prefer between Jason Zucker and Erik Haula up front and Marco Scandella and Jonas Brodin on the blue line. Two good players will be left exposed, either way.
Nashville – A good defenseman will be left exposed, but wouldn't it be amazing if it was Shea Weber? What a way to shed a monster contract that is already looking to be far too steep. Whoever is deemed as the fourth defenseman becomes an interesting trade piece for the Predators.
NYI – The Islanders will have to choose between Thomas Hickey and Calvin de Haan, and both are adequate second-pairing options on the blue line.
NYR – There will be a solid youngster left available, as one of Kevin Hayes, Oscar Lindberg or Jesper Fast will be left exposed. And two of Kevin Klein, Brady Skjei and Dylan McIlrath will be left available with Marc Staal's no-movement clause.
Ottawa – I bet the Senators wish they made that Cody Ceci for Jonathan Drouin deal now!
Philadelphia – The Flyers could choose to leave Matt Read or Scott Laughton available, but otherwise, they appear to be in a solid spot.
Pittsburgh – Obviously, Marc-Andre Fleury's no-movement contract has to be dealt with. Either Pittsburgh returns him to being No. 1 and moves Matt Murray, or they risk losing Murray. Of course, Fleury could opt to approve a trade, too. Also, Letang and Maatta are going to be protected, but then, the Penguins will leave two of Derrick Pouliot, Ian Cole and Brian Dumoulin available. It would seem highly unlikely Pittsburgh doesn't address their goaltending situation.
San Jose – Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns are all unrestricted free agents after next season. It's too early to know what's ahead for the Sharks, as they only have three forwards, four defensemen and a goalie under contract for the 2017-18 season: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski and Joel Ward are all on no-trade contracts up front, Jones is signed in goal, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic has a no-movement clause on defense. The other three defensemen under contract are Paul Martin, Justin Braun and Brandon Dillon.
St. Louis – David Backes and Troy Brouwer are unrestricted free agents now, and next season, Alexander Steen, Patrik Berglund, Kevin Shattenkirk and Brian Elliott will all be unrestricted free agents. There is a lot of change ahead, but there doesn't look to be much of value — outside of Carl Gunnarsson — to be plucked from St. Louis as it stands.
Tampa Bay – The Lightning cap issues are well known, but abiding by the no-movement clauses of those four blue liners has to be daunting for Steve Yzerman. I hit up the situation in this past ramblings.
Toronto – Nathan Horton's situation sure piques my interest, but since his no-movement turns into a no-trade after next season, he doesn't have to be one of the seven forwards, right? It won't matter for Toronto, it doesn't look like it, at this point, anyway. However, that was an unforeseen circumstance of acquiring him, albeit better than having David Clarkson's no-movement clause on the books. However, it could mean someone like Peter Holland was unnecessarily left available, if Holland is even in the plan moving forward.
Vancouver – The Canucks have seven forwards and four defensemen under contract for 2017-18, and two of the forwards are Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin in the final years of their contracts. For the 2018-19 season, Vancouver has just four players signed: Brandon Sutter, Derek Dorsett, Alexander Edler and Christopher Tanev. That is either great or pathetic, depending on perspective and ambitions.
Washington – The Capitals are in a great spot going forward. They have their core locked up outside of John Carlson, and don't have any valuable pieces in jeopardy of being swiped.
Winnipeg – The Jacob Trouba situation will have to be worked out, and as it stands, his contract demands are a little out of whack. Additionally, having Tobias Enstrom on a no-movement deals is a huge problem. Otherwise, though, Winnipeg is set up front, and with Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers and help on the way, they're in a good spot overall.
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Enjoy Game 6, Dobberheads.
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Neil.
I didn’t get very far into the list of players with NMC’s. I started this very exercise as soon as Daily stated players with NMC’s had to be protected. I don’t show Belesky, Seidenberg, Moulson or Georges with NMC’s nor does Generalfanager. I stopped after the 1st 3 teams you listed but I could go on & on. I’m not sure how you determined many opf these players have NMC’s. Numerous have NTC’s but that doesn’t count.
Thanks — I gaffed there, and am tidying up. The point remains that they’re problematic contracts, though, albeit easy to leave exposed. But why would an expansion team take on a horrible deal. Enjoy your weekend.
All good.
It’s really all very cloudy at the moment. The NHL & NHLPA seem to be pulling this stuff out of their collective a–es, trying to get to much resolved to quickly & the lawyers are having a field day finding ways to convolute the process not showing weakness on either side.
There are 2 possible reasons an expansion team may take on a bad contract, possible more. They need to hit the cap floor & the team with said player might provide them with the enticement to do so in pick or players following the expansion draft.
Some teams like Columbus have shown zero foresight regarding expansion. I 1st started talking about expansion 2 years ago & time lining it well over a year ago as little rumors started to circulate & I’m not even an insider. Surely teams had to be given some form of warning by the NHL that expansion was coming, the reason said rumors started circulating.
Few teams have positioned themselves as poorly as the management team in Columbus leading up to an expansion draft. I still believe 2 teams are coming & up until just days ago with both starting play in 2017-18. A little doubt about Quebec has crept in but I still feel very strongly that it will be 2. If not then worst case scenario Quebec is delayed a year but this really doesn’t make sense to me.
Columbus’s hard choices will be buying out Tyutin this summer, finding a trade partner for Hartnell & as they were stupid enough to trade for Clarkson’s NMC & gave 1 to Foligno they will need to move Johnson or Savard at D so as to be in a position to protect 7F, 3D & 1G as they can’t afford to lose al 3 of Wennberg, Jenner or Atkinson. I’m sure they will ask Clarkson & Foligno to waive their NMC’s but I don’t see Foligno agreeing to do so. Clarkson might as he potentially could get a better playing opportunity with an expansion team. If said team would even consider drafting him which seems unlikely but theses expansion teams will need to hit the cap floor.
Then they protect Dubinsky, Foligno, Clarkson, Saad, Wennberg, Jenner, Atkinson, Murray, Jones, 1 of Savard or Johnson; other traded & Bobrovsky. Tragedy averted.
Great extensive insight, thanks.
I have very strong views & opinions on expansion, a subject matter I have expended significant research on is it’s impact on my fantasy leagues is significant & it really interests me, well lets be honest I have strong opinions & views on anything hockey related as it’s my favorite hobby & provides me a significant revenue stream. Ha-ha!
Many teams will use the 8 skaters as opposed to 7F, 3D option. Nashville being 1 of them, protecting 4D & only 4F’s. Weber won’t be exposed under any scenario & I can only assume your speaking tongue in cheek. 1. because he’s 1 of the most complete Dman in the NHL but 2 & more importantly that 56 million of his 110 million 14 year deal has already been paid in the 1st 4 years of that contract.
This isn’t your old Nashville predators. They don’t have significant cap issues any longer, their revenue streams have improved significantly as has their attendance, corporate sponsorship & luxury box sales; they made 2 million in 2014-15 & are continuing to improve their financials rapidly. This years 3 additional playoff gates & their share of the new Canadian TV package will push that margin up substantially. That’s after paying Weber’s front loaded contract which now drops to 12 for the next 2 seasons then 6 for the 4 & continuing it’s decline. That’s 2 million in profit coming next season just on Weber’s contract dropping buy 2 million in real dollars. They should come in at between 8 to 10 million in profit this season! Boy how times change.
Nashville doesn’t have a significant protector issue at F. They protect Johansen, Forsberg, Neil & Smith, the 4D, Weber, Josi, Ellis & Ekholm & Rinne. They lose Wilson which is unfortunate but a far better scenario than losing Ellis or Ekholm. I assume Nashville may look to trade Wilson for futures as opposed to losing him. Teams like Nashville need to walk a fine line between the needs of today, potentially having a deep playoff run & the needs of tomorrow, expansion coming fast. Interesting times.
I could do this for every team in the NHL extrapolating which players teams will look to move to solve their problems. 1 needs to be prepared. Ha-ha!
The interesting issue on the table for me now that the NHL has said that players who’s contracts expire on June 30th but have NMC’s will not have to be protected although technically still under contract until following the expansion draft. Will this also then mean that a player like Ericksson in Detroit who’s NTC moves to modified will also be effected & deemed to expire erlier as well. Not certain you can make 1 legal change but then not potentially move the date for all such contractual issues. Only lawyers can think this stuff up & make it far more confusing than it need be.
Neil as always enjoy your posts. Keep up the solid work & get some sleep.
Thanks, man,
I worry about Weber’s foot speed going forward, and I was half joking, but just the idea of a team making a bold move is fun to float.
Colin Wilson might not be fully out of the picture, either. He’s going to have that 30-30 year eventually, right? ha
Cheers.
I hear yeah but contractually & even at that slower foot speed he’s still a solid top pairing option for Nashville & on a great many teams would easily be their #1. Josi has passed him in that role in Nashville.
I protected C. Wilson as a LW in my oldest fantasy keeper league last season & drafted him early in another. Disappointing year & it would be virtually impossible for me to do so again this season based on last seasons performance. It comes down to him or JT. Miller ideally for me at my #3 LW spot. Leaning to Miller, although may just play it safe & keep the old man Jokinen as I’m a serious contender. Like in the real world it comes down to the needs of today verses the needs of tomorrow. I tend to lean to the veterans every time. Safer.
I’ll eat my hat if Minnesota exposes any forwards other than Pominville & Vanek. First, Haula can’t be exposed because he won’t be under contract in 2017-18. Second, Zucker’s an RFA now and since teams have to expose some minimum amount of salary, either the Wild grossly overpay him for a 2-year deal (and they don’t have that much cap space right now (10mil to add 5 players minimum), or they don’t expose him.
Meanwhile, Pominville and Vanek both look like they’re in steady decline at this point in their careers, and the younger players are looking like they are a few minutes of TOI per game from being relevant. So all around I think moving out the old guard is going to be Minnesota’s approach to the expansion draft.
They cannot expose Pominville. He’s on a no-movement clause. http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/minnesota-wild
I’d read previously that NTC players can Be put up for expansion, but have to agree to it. Though these rules change weekly, it seems. So, if his role continues to shrink, I think he might want an out.
His NMC is limited — players with a limited NMC (usually listed as having both a NMC and NTC on generalfanager) aren’t automatically protected. For example, today’s ramblings talk about Fleury in that same situation.
There is no way that Columbus would leave Boone Jenner “up for grabs”. He was one of their best players last year, is only 22 and has a fairly cheap contract. Jack Johnson had a brutal year and is over-rated. He’s the player that the Jackets ought to sacrifice.
They’re going to have to leave someone solid up for grabs.
http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets
Alexi Emelin does NOT have a NMC.
He has a partial NTC.
Not to be that guy, but this stuff is par for the course for sub-writers here (although not, I might add, for Dobber himself) when it comes to Montreal,
Now that we have the number 9 pick, one wonders if that draftee will be looked at post draft in the Hockey Guide. Only mention this because it hasn’t happened for the last 3 years.
Some of you guys should post pictures along with your articles, wearing your Leafs’ jerseys.
Hey Richard! Long time no hear…
Just last week I was called out for not posting ramblings that were as strong as Neil, Mike and Ian. Getting lots of great feedback from people about their work this year. And I fully agree with them – I have struggled to match these guys for quality, they’re doing a really good job.
I get the sense that you haven’t been by in awhile and you come around two months later and have this to say. And for what? Because Emelin was mis-reported as having an NTC instead of an NMC? Anyway, give the guys another shot, they really have been solid
Yes, I’m here a long time, pre-joining and post, and to be truthful I really like the site, as I think you well know….. Already bought my Draft Guide / a little down with the Tees still available……I do find the site Toronto-centric to a degree, but hey, I still look. …..You’re right – big stuff in my personal life, but all good – so not been around so much……A lot of players to list re Expansion, maybe I was just in a punky mood, mistakes happen!……General Fanager just put up a new tool which is quite fun..Be well.