Ramblings: More Conn Smythe talk, Nazem Kadri, Sebastian Aho and more (June 14)

Neil Parker

2016-06-14

Sidney Crosby - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

More Stanley Cup Finals talk, Nazem Kadri, Sebastian Aho, Nashville's goalie situation and more …

 

Last week, I endorsed Phil Kessel as the Conn Smythe winner, and while it would have been awesome to see Kessel win, you cannot discredit Sidney Crosby.

The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the played deemed to be the most valuable to his team during the playoffs. Crosby was the MVP, without him Pittsburgh doesn't win. They likely don't win without Kessel or Kris Letang, either, but it's an open-and-shut case without Crosby.

This is an absolutely stellar read from Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy, and it looks very calculatedly at the award and presents the argument for Kessel.

A "lifetime-achievement" angle can be presented as justification for Crosby hoisting the Conn Smythe Trophy Sunday, but it was without doubt deserved. Others deserved the award, too, but they only got to lift the Stanley Cup.

Teams win the cup, and it takes four or five Conn Smythe candidates for a team to succeed. Only one of those candidates wins, though. Sure Crosby wasn't the most dominant player statistically during the playoffs, but he was the driving force behind Pittsburgh's dominance over their past 24 games and since mid-Decmember.

 

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Here is a snapshot from an Adam Gretz article about the Penguins shedding their underachiever label.

 

 

Impressive.

 

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Before moving on, and this echoes a comment from Dobber a few Ramblings back, but Pittsburgh succeeding hopefully kick-starts the copy-cat movement toward up-tempo, skill-focused play. Dobber posited teams emulate the Sharks style while discussing Pete DeBoer's excellent track record.

While there was still a touch too many desperation clears of the hard-off-the-glass-and-out and rafter-seeking-flip variety, it was a fast series with a lot of fast-break offense, albeit somewhat one-sided at times.

We want more of this going forward.

 

James Mirtle discusses it here, too.

One particular piece from the article stuck out:

"Now it appears the Blackhawks are the model, with far more of a premium on skating ability and puckhandling over size and strength. We’re seeing that at the draft, and with teams like Tampa Bay, one of the other rising contenders that is very small and skilled up front."

"One reason is the focus on analytics and possession has placed a premium on passing and stickhandling, especially as it relates to zone exits and entries."

"Another is that positioning has become paramount in modern defensive systems, and in order to get into those positions and defend effectively against the world’s top players, speed is a must."

We also want more of this going forward.

 

If you do take the time to read the piece, and you should, Mirtle also highlights the spending practices of Pittsburgh, and notes the cost-effective role players and how they're vital to being able to roster star power.

Again, overpaying middling talents is the worst use of cap space there is.

 

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Still one last thing before moving ahead. Here is the latest news on Tomas Hertl and Kris Letang.

 

Hertl is a breakout candidate for me next season. He posted 21 goals and 25 helpers with 2.49 shots per game this year, and should have a top-six role locked up for the upcoming season.

His two most frequent linemates were Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski, but after that he spent approximately 21 percent of his five-on-five ice time with Tommy Wingels and 19 percent with Joel Ward. There is room for growth as he enters his fourth season, but he'll also benefit from high-end linemates for the duration of the season.

 

Well, apparently this is why Letang missed practice time and had a press conference to announce he was playing before Game 1.

At this stage, you're almost guaranteed to eat some missed time with Letang. However, unless there aren't transactions in your league, it shouldn't impact your selection of Letang significantly.

Defense is deep enough that you can ride the hot hand and replacement value is high enough that Letang's numbers plus his replacement's numbers is still a high-end defenseman at the end of the season.

Obviously, it’s different in weekly head-to-head formats, or as mentioned, if you can't adjust your club.

 

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Here are the Stanley Cup odds for the 2016-16 season, from Bet365.

 

If you site shop, you'll likely find better values. However, at first glance, the only real bargains look like Nashville, Winnipeg and Montreal, to me.

The Predators were close this season, Winnipeg is going to be jacked in front of Connor Hellebuyck, and the Canadiens have Carey Price and some cap space.

Tampa Bay is a few sneaky moves from being right atop the list, but that defense corps has some stiffs.

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A lot is going to change in the next few weeks, though.

 

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Apparently, Chicago is going to try and fit Andrew Shaw in under the salary cap. Maybe it works, but they also only have nine forwards under contract for next season, and that includes Bryan Bickell.

This is a situation to watch, because Shaw deserves a deal similar to Casey Cizikas', if not better. So, the ink on his contract will also serve as a benchmark salary. And, Shaw's fantasy value is likely highest with Chicago.

 

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The DobberProspect dudes recently updated the profile of Sebastian Aho, and the 2015 second-round pick inked his entry-level deal with Carolina Monday.

Dobber has him sitting at 11th in the most recent Prospect Rankings, however, that is actually a drop of two spots.

 

Here is all we need to know from general manager Ron Francis:

“Sebastian is regarded as one of the top prospects in hockey and is ready to begin his North American career,” Francis said. “He had a tremendous season as an 18-year-old playing against men in Finland’s top league, and was outstanding in international competitions including the recent World Championship. He will play an important role for the Hurricanes moving forward.”

The full article is here.

 

The best part about Aho's fantasy value is he has no one to beat out. He can waltz into top-six minutes and power-play time without leapfrogging anyone. On the flip side, though, it also means he doesn't have anyone to siphon points off of, either.

As always, these recommendations are league specific, but in yearly setups, Aho is a late-round flier. He could score 50 points, or he could score 25. He could score 50 points and finish minus-24, too.

 

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So, it looks like Carter Hutton is peacing out of Nashville.

This was the expected outcome, and I touched on the situation a few Ramblings back. So, it then seems fitting that Marek Mazanec was signed to a one-year, two-way deal Monday.

 

Here is what I said about the Nashville goalie situation last time:

"While on the surface, it's just Rinne's backup we're talking about, Rinne is declining in a hurry, and he has a lengthy track record of injuries, including a knee and a hip surgery."

"Nashville is also a solid team, and No. 2 goalies on good teams have plenty of value. And we all know how quickly a No. 3 can grab fleeting fantasy value."

"However, depth goaltenders are even more valuable when they're playing behind a questionable No. 1."

"This is a situation to watch, and Nashville could also bring in a goaltender from outside the organization to push Rinne, which would further muddy the waters."

"I wouldn't hesitate to take a swing for Saros right now, though. He likely has the highest ceiling and just gained some more international experience playing for Finland in the World Championships, where he posted two shutouts, albeit against Hungary and Slovakia."

"Regardless, Saros also outplayed Mazanec in the American Hockey League statistically this season. And barring a significant change, Saros projects as the goalie of the future."

 

Additionally, I'm intrigued by where Peter Harling ranked Saros in the Prospect Guide.

 

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With that teaser out of the way, make sure to grab the Prospect Guide.

 

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I ran a number generator to pick a player to write about before calling it a night. I got 144, and according to Pete Jensen's rankings, Nazem Kadri is ranked 144th.

 

144. C Nazem Kadri, Toronto Maple Leafs

Putting 3.42 shots per game on net and posting a 6.5 shooting percentage would suggest there's some serious room for growth. However, it wouldn't take too many viewings to know a lot of those shots weren't over dangerous.

He did rank 22nd in the league with 114 high-danger scoring chances, according to War-on-Ice.com, though. So, while there was a lot of noise in his 260 shots, there was also some poor luck in his goal total.

Kadri finished with a career-high 73 penalty minutes, too, and there is some sneaky cross-category potential here, and incoming talent to help.

The true upside of Kadri really depends on his linemates and role. Head coach Mike Babcock utilized him as a shut-down pivot and matched him up against the opponent's best players. That definitely limits his prospects.

Still, opponents are going to have more threats to deal with this year, and Kadri could also find himself between two talented wingers.

There are unknowns, but Kadri's strong peripheral statistics and modest/respectable track record make for a solid late-round grab. In fact, it could be argued he's an ideal selection late in drafts because his reliable floor comes with upside.

 

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Thanks, Dobberheads. Be well.

 

 

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