A closer look at three Aves and Rasmus Ristolainen …

Colorado is now expected to re-sign Tyson Barrie, and general manager Joe Sakic said the team won't be busy early in the free-agent period.

“We’re not going to be looking that day,” Sakic said. “As the summer goes on, we’ll see what good fits are. But on the July 1, don’t expect us to go after any big long-term deals. Within our own, we’re going to discuss what we have within, but outside on July 1 we’re not going to go after a big splash.”

Here's a link to the full article.

This says a few things.

Re-upping Nathan MacKinnon is their big splash.

Barrie, as he should be, is still viewed as a big piece of their team going forward.

Mikko Rantanen should have a big role in 2016-17.

Beginning with MacKinnon, there is potential for a true breakout this year. It's interesting to note the similarity between John Tavares' points-per-game mark (0.75) through his first two seasons, and MacKinnon's first three (0.70). The list below is since the 2005-06 post-lockout season.

It was Tavares' age-21 year where he took the big jump to 81 points — 31 goals — through 82 games.

Development isn't always linear with young players, especially in the point column, and MacKinnon has all the necessary physical tools to take that large leap forward.

Is he going to turn it on and be a point-per-game guy, likely not, but he could very easily return 30 goals, 30 assists and 225 shots on net. Only eight players hit all three benchmarks last season.

When you look at that collection, you see a group of players who will likely go in the first few rounds of most drafts, maybe the two top, with Patrice Bergeron the likely only exception.

After Round 3 or 4 of drafts, you should be targeting players who have the capability of scoring over 60 points. Just 44 players hit the 60-point mark in 2015-16, and 118 players registered between 45 and 59 points.

It's easy to find a player capable of approaching/returning 50 points, but it's a lot tougher to grab 60-point candidates. Perhaps, it's better said that 50 point players emerge from waiver wires, but 60-point guys are extremely rare.

This is all "duh" material, but it lays the groundwork for swinging for the fences early. And, why not earlier than your leaguemates?

If MacKinnon doesn't hit that 30-30-225 line, you're likely just ending up with similar results to the "safe" pick you passed over for MacKinnon. Expect him to sit somewhere between 50 and 75 in the majority of rankings, but as shown, hitting that very realistic return would make him an elite fantasy option.

There are going to be all kinds of young players that fit this same bill, too. Aleksander Barkov, Max Domi, Lion Draisaitl, Mika Zibanejad, Boone Jenner, Tomas Hertl and J.T. Miller are other example off the cuff.

He won't be as trendy because he appears to have stagnated offensively. This is a classic post-hype sleeper.

On to Rantenan.

A quick look at the Forward Prospect Rankings highlights how excited Dobber is about Rantenan, and after a 60-point showing in the American Hockey League this season through just 52 games, it's justified.

Here's his DobberProspect profile.

However, it's also difficult to find comparables among former AHL rookies.

Tyler Toffoli scored 51 points through 58 games during the 2012-13 season and then scored 29 points over 62 games during his mostly first full season in the NHL the following year at age 21.

Tyler Johnson scored 68 points through 75 games during the 2011-12 season and then scored 50 points over 82 games during his first full season in the NHL, but it was in 2013-14. Johnson was also 23.

The best comparable might be Ryan Strome.

Strome scored 49 points through 37 games during the 2013-14 season and then scored 50 points over 81 games during his first full season in the NHL the following year at age 21.

There are obviously all kinds of variables that influenced the production of Toffoli, Johnson and Strome in the NHL, and similar circumstances and others will impact Rantenan next year. Plus, they're all different styled players.

Still, the three selected represent examples of players who had immediate offensive success in the AHL, like Rantanen, and then quickly ascended into scoring roles in the NHL.

Rantanen should do the same, and when you look at the production of Toffoli, Johnson and Strome, it provides a decent picture of the type of output you should expect from Rantenan.

He should approach 50 points with 35-45 being a better range to count on.

He'll likely be a popular late-round selection this fall, go through a number of inconsistent stretches through the first half of the season and then finish strong. He'll top out as a fringe fantasy asset in the second half.

In keeper/dynasty setups, there will be a prime buy-low window early in the year during one of his slumps. But at this time next year, he'll be one of the most inked breakout candidates going. It's the ebbs and flows.

I'm really bullish because of the surrounding talent, but I don't trust Patrick Roy to utilize Rantenan properly.

Cliffy recently discussed Barrie here.

Only seven defensemen have hit the 100-point mark since the beginning of last season, and Barrie's one of them.

You have to value him extremely high, and entering his age-25 season, Barrie is in the heart of his prime. You can likely land him as your No. 1 defenseman, which is acceptable, between picks 75 and 100 this fall.

In that range, though, you are likely securing a slam-dunk No. 2.

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Back to the number generator, and yesterday I specified the results to be between 100 and 200 and hit 106… so, here we go from Pete Jensen's updated rankings.

106. D Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo Sabres

Since the 2005-06 season, only three defenseman have scored 40 points with 200 shots on net at 21 years of age or younger, and Ristolainen is one of them.

The Sabres had the 12th-best power-play percentage (18.9) in the league last season, and Ristolainen averaged 3:08 minutes per game with the man advantage and returned 21 PP points.

With over half his points coming via the power play, he's certainly dependant on the Sabres success with the man advantage, at least to a degree. However, Buffalo realistically could improve in that regard, and Ristolainen's own growth will help.

Still, it is worth noting, among the 121 defenseman with at least 1,000 minutes of five-on-five ice time, Ristolainen ranked 10th-last in goals per 60 minutes, according to Corisca.

What makes Ristolainen a fantasy star is his real-time stats, though. He had 139 hits and 137 blocked shots, so his plus/minus is the only concern. And, he shaved 11 minuses off last year after posting a minus-32 rating in 2014-15.

He is a high-end No. 3 defenseman in leagues utilizing real-time statistics, but don't count on a significant jump forward offensively. It likely happened last year.

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Be well, enjoy the weekend, and Happy Father's Day to all the DobberDads out there.