Ramblings: 2016 Draft as a Fantasy Draft

Ian Gooding

2016-06-26

2016 draft as a fantasy draft, draft thoughts, Datsyuk trade explained…

It seems like yesterday that the NHL season finished. That’s why it seems hard to believe that the 2016 draft is already in the books. In other words, the NHL doesn’t waste any time in getting its offseason going.

Did the draft seem uneventful to you? Certainly when it comes to trades, it could have provided more. After all, the most significant trade involved Brian Elliott moving to Calgary (more about it here). As Mike said, this move helps both Elliott and Jake Allen, as both are out of the timeshare that never seemed to go away. That is, of course, unless the Flames decide to add another goalie. I can’t really see the Flames pursuing Ben Bishop or Marc-Andre Fleury any longer. If one of them happened to be acquired, then Elliott would really be the Rodney Dangerfield of goalies. But James Reimer could be a possibility.

As for the draft, everything started according to plan. Auston Matthews went #1. Patrik Laine went #2. But things really got interesting when the Blue Jackets chose Pierre-Luc Dubois at #3 over Jesse Puljujarvi. I was at the Canucks’ draft party, and you could hear the gasp as the words “Cape Breton Screaming Eagles” were uttered. Canucks fans figured they would be witnessing Dubois putting on a Canucks jersey and hat at pick #5. But it was not to be.

So why in the world would the Jackets pick Dubois at #3? This segment from the Sportsnet Magazine Live podcast offers up a couple of theories. For one, he's that big scoring center that's one important piece for a championship. But if this is such a terrible pick for the Jackets, let’s compare third overall and fifth overall picks through the years. I’d still give the advantage to team third overall, but the incremental difference doesn’t seem all that substantial to me. Demetri tells you how many first overall picks have won a Stanley Cup and are in the Hall of Fame in this week’s Contrarian.

I’m just more shocked that the Blue Jackets would trade Kerby Rychel to the Leafs for next to nothing. I know that Rychel had asked to be traded, but it’s not impossible to get a decent return when you know that other GMs won’t be offering full value. (By the way, Neil had you covered for the fantasy take of that deal as well.)

That Columbus pick changed the strategies of the Oilers, Canucks, and Flames. Edmonton probably had no idea Puljujarvi would be there at #4, so they picked the best player available. Matthew Tkachuk, who many thought would be the #4 pick, was still there at #6, so Calgary also picked the best player available. Some thought the Canucks were reaching a bit for Olli Juolevi at #5… or were they?

As a Canucks’ fan, I’m happy with the pick. Throughout their history, the Canucks have never had so much as a Norris Trophy nominee. Just about every Stanley Cup winner over the last decade (and perhaps even beyond) have had that one stud defenseman. Mattias Ohlund, who was coincidentally at the Canucks’ draft party, may be the team’s all-time best defenseman. That should give you an idea. But the Canucks still need that scoring center that will succeed Henrik Sedin.

On to Day 2 and what I thought were a few interesting picks:

Tyler Benson, 32nd overall, Edmonton: The local boy would have been a first-round pick if he didn’t miss the majority of the season due to injury (28 points in just 30 games). He was the first overall selection in the 2013 WHL Bantam Draft.

Alex Debrincat, 39th overall, Chicago: If he wasn’t 5’7” and 163 lbs., he would have easily been a first-rounder (101 points in 60 games in the OHL).

Carter Hart, 48th overall, Philadelphia: The first goalie drafted, Hart was the WHL and CHL goalie of the year. He has to be in the conversation as Canada’s goalie for the World Juniors.

Sean Day, 81st overall, NY Rangers: Remember when he was granted exceptional status to enter the OHL as a 15-year-old? The other three players who were granted exceptional status were all eventually drafted first overall in the NHL. That’s a lot to put on a kid, but it gives you an idea of how much his stock had fallen.

Ty Ronning, 201st overall, NY Rangers: The son of Cliff Ronning unfortunately has his dad’s size as well as his playmaking ability. (The 18-year-old me was surprised that I was taller than someone in the NHL when I got my picture taken with Cliff.) The younger Ronning impressed me when I saw him play, so he’s officially my deep sleeper favorite.

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In my keeper auction salary cap league, we hold an entry draft each offseason so that teams can claim one prospect from the summer’s draft class. So as a fun little exercise, I thought I’d redraft the 2016 draft, except this time for fantasy leagues. I’ve won the league three years in a row, so if anything I’m providing my league mates with a little cheatsheet (if they happen to be reading… but maybe they should be frequenting Dobber Hockey if they want to prevent me from channeling my inner early 1980s New York Islanders… needless to say, I’ll have the 12th pick for the third year in a row.)

For non-keeper leagues, your picks are basically Matthews and Laine. I wouldn’t argue about taking Laine over Matthews because Laine is more of the pure scorer, but I’ll have to give that one more thought. I can and will change my mind every so often. There could be others that make the NHL this season, but you’d have to think their chances are much slimmer than the first two picks.

So the focus of my list will be for keeper leagues. I’ll go 12 picks deep, since that’s the number of teams in my league. My system will be based on not only how early the pick is, but also offensive upside and how it relates to basic fantasy leagues. As well, the perceived degree of difficulty of the player’s league and player comparisons factored in. I’ll evaluate on basic scoring categories; peripheral categories not so much.

  1. Matthews
  2. Laine
  3. Puljujarvi
  4. Dubois
  5. Tkachuk
  6. Juolevi
  7. Clayton Keller
  8. Alexander Nylander
  9. Mikhail Sergachev
  10. Jake Bean
  11. Logan Brown
  12. Tyson Jost

Feel free to weigh in with your own picks. Again, this is a preliminary list and nothing is carved in stone. Just something to think about if you participate in a similar format or simply want to get a leg up on the competition.

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A friend of mine emailed me asking me why in the world Detroit traded Pavel Datsyuk’s contract to Arizona. Many of you will already know why. But in case you don’t, here’s how I replied. If you have an inside out knowledge of NHL contracts, feel free to comment below if I messed up on any particulars.  

“Detroit makes that trade because they would be stuck with Datsyuk's cap hit for one more season, even though he's retired from the NHL. It's a special rule that applies to players who signed a contract at age 35 or over. I believe it’s a rule that resulted from the Roberto Luongo contract (and others like it), where he's getting paid until he's 43, even though he probably won't play until he's 43. Wealthier teams did it so they can spread out their cap hit over more seasons and acquire more players. (Cap hit is allowed to be a different amount from actual salary paid.) Now Detroit has valuable space to make a run for other free agents, maybe even Steven Stamkos.”

“Arizona makes that trade because they are poor but need to reach the cap floor (aka cap minimum – there isn't just a maximum). They don't actually pay the money, but the contract still has to cover someone's cap space. If you go to capfriendly.com you'll see they also have Chris Pronger's contract, and for the same reason. Pronger's is on the books for one more year, even though he had to retire due to injury several years ago and never played for the Coyotes. Same with Marc Savard, whose cap hit was recently traded from the Panthers to the Devils. But if a team wants to, they can move the contracts to long-term injury reserve after the season starts and acquire more players. But they still have to be cap compliant at the start of the year.”

As I was writing this, I was curious. What happens if a team doesn’t reach the cap floor? Winging It In Motown does a great job of sifting through the legalese on this one. Basically the penalty seems to be at the league’s choosing, but it could be significant (large fine plus loss of first-round pick).

Yes, the balance of this trade could have helped Arizona more. But I’m not complaining if I’m Arizona snagging both Clayton Keller and Jakob Chychrun in the first round.

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Enjoy your Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

3 Comments

  1. Striker 2016-06-26 at 09:53

    Your description of the Datsyuk contract is essentially correct. It’s as simple as all contracts signed after a player turns 35 count against the cap regardless of whether they retire. It was added to the last CBA to discourage teams from trying to circumvent the cap with players over 35 signing contracts they had no intention of completing to try & get their cap hits down well they played.

    That said it has nothing to do with Luongo contract or those of Kovalchuk, Richards, Hossa etc were deemed to be cap circumventing contracts as well & subsequently the claw back formula was introduced in the same CBA for these contracts. None of these players were over 35 when they signed these cap circumventing contracts including Luongo & the rules regarding them were created following their contracts being registered by the NHL, these rules were created in the 2012-13 CBA. Very odd in legal terms, usually in law old practices are grandfathered in & the rules start at point of law or rule creation but these types of contracts were deemed to be unfair, cap circumventing even though the old rules allowed for such. The NHL slammed the door on the loop hole. Why players can only sign 7; any UFA, & or 8; your own UFA, year deals today.

    Nor has any team ever made the cap floor needing to take on the contract of an injured or over 35 retiring player; although Datsyuk’s is the 1st contract to be effected by this rule. Neither will Arizona when the fill out their 23 man roster. Teams take on the contracts of injured players or a retiring player like Datsyuk as teams pay them to do so. Or generally they do. Like Boston giving up Smith last season taking back Hayes a significant down grade or NJ getting a 2nd to take Savard from Florida, or Arizona dumping Gagner’s contract on Phildadelphia & getting Grossman a serviceable 5/6 NHL Dman for nothing but being willing to eat these cap hits & pay any required salary’s Both in the 500K range for Savard & Pronger, zero dollars will be paid to Datsyuk when they mutually terminate his contract but his cap hit counts with no relief.

    What’s odd about the Datsyuk contract dump is Arizona paid a higher price to move up 4 spots; received 16 for 20 & 53, than any other team paid to move up in the draft & took Datsyuk’s contract to boot. Holland fleeced Chayka. The pick compensation paid to move up 4 spots was better than any other team paid to move up yet Arizona took Datsyuk’s cap hit regardless. Although I do love the fact Arizona got to draft Chychrun who I assumed they would have taken at 7. Getting Keller & Chychrun made for a great draft day for Arizona.

    Again Arizona won’t need the cap hits of Pronger & Datsyuk to reach the floor. When Doan signs his 1 year deal, Reider, Stone, Murphy, Dhalbeck, Tinordi & Connauton all RFA’s are resigned, Strome & Dvorak promoted to the NHL & 3 more UFA forwards & potentially another UFA Dman are added they will be well above the floor regardless or Datsyuk’s or Prongers cap hits. In fact they will need to most likely play the paper work shuffle game to be cap compliant carrying essentially 12.5 mil in dead cap space for Datsyuk & Pronger.

    All LTIR injured players count against your 23 man roster spot submitted to the NHL the day before the season starts as do their cap hits; not certain what the rule on Datsyuk will be when his contract is terminated. I assume you can use his roster spot; he won’t count against your 23 active players, but his cap hit stays, it can’t be put on LTIR like say Pronger on opening day. A player not requiring wavers will be sent down prior to the start of the season before Arizona submits it’s 23 man roster. On opening day, Pronger will be put on LTIR & a player recalled to replace him on their 23 man active roster.

    All LTIR & ELC bonus monies count against the cap but provide a cushion that you are allowed to exceeded if paid. Should these deferable bonus monies put you over the cap ceiling in cap monies spent that season said monies carry over to the following season as a penalty. See Chicago & the $3,070,000 carry over penalty against their cap this season.

    • Ian Gooding 2016-06-26 at 10:32

      So I did the quick math and it looks like with AZ’s current cap number – Datsyuk + players you listed they need to sign = a number above the cap, although a number that is not pushing the cap ceiling. Maybe the Datsyuk contract is more of an insurance policy that they will reach the floor. Or Chayka made Holland an offer he couldn’t refuse in order to quickly get the deal done to secure Chychrun, not wanting to do the usual back and forth that GMs do and possibly miss out on a deal with all the conversation that happens at a draft and the clock ticking, no doubt using his fancy stats to back him up. In that case this plays well into the hands of an effective negotiator like Holland.

      • Striker 2016-06-26 at 11:14

        Agreed. When all is said & done everyone got what they wanted & Chayka could afford it, the 53rd pick was the compensatory pick they got when Bleackley didn’t sign. Unless Arizona resigns Tanguay all they have left to show from the Boedker trade to Colorado is Kyle wood.

        There are rumors that Arizona is bidding for Shattenkirk? I get the sense that Arizona is ready to try & take a step up & ownership has opened the coffers to secure some legitamte NHL talent. Something that has been sorely lacking in Arizona for sometime.

        I’m just thankful we can put these stupid OEL, Domi, Strome, the 7th overall & Chayka’s 1st born for Matthews to rest. If I heard 1 more person tell me that Arizona needed Matthew’s to sell hockey in the desert I was getting ready to kill myself.

        Arizona is selling hockey in Arizona; see Matthew’s, if not for such negative press with bad ownership, serious legal battles with their landlord all would be well in Arizona & all will be. Arizona has an incredible stable of prospects the best in the NHL, several just completed their 1st or 2nd seasons in Arizona & a ton are coming. Add Goligoski & another player to be acquired soon; UFA or trade, & Arizona is a playoff contender next season even in the west.

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