More NHL Draft Talk, New UFAs of interest, Filip Forsberg, Andrew Shaw and more …

 

I had the opportunity to do a spot on Fantasy Sports Today on the FNTSY Network Monday.

Here are the notes I prepared in preparation. It is obviously more of the same topics we've discussed over the past few days, but the sharing is caring.

Also, I firmly believe Patrik Laine is the best fantasy asset from this draft class because he's a winger and likely the best goal scorer. However, the more I think about the potential of Jesse Puljujarvi lining up next to Connor McDavid, Puljujarvi could easily be the highest scoring rookie.

Matthews is a high-floor player who should return numbers similar to what Jack Eichel posted last year, but with the Maple Leafs in 2016-17, his ceiling might be the lowest of the top three. Plus, with center being the deepest fantasy position, his fantasy stock isn't as valuable for that reason alone.

 

Auston Matthews

• Beat Patrick Kane's U18 US National Development Team Program's scoring record with 116 points during the 2014-15 season
• Then scored 46 points through 36 games in the Swiss National League last year.
• Clearly an excellent scorer with No. 1 pivot's build and projects to be a coveted franchise center in the Anze Kopitar mold.
• Auston 20 – 16 Says the Leafs just lucked out.

 

Patrik Laine

• Gained steam over the season to pull ahead of countryman Jesse Puljujarvi in most rankings and drafts, and capped off his campaign as the playoff MVP in the Finnish Elite League and MVP of the World Hockey Campionships.
• The concern over Laine's footspeed is mitigated by a scorer's mentality and opportunistic and lethal shooting arsenal that is second to none in this draft class.
• He stands to grab a top-six role and be the triggerman on the No. 1 power-play unit immediately and the sky's the limit offensively. He'll be a key piece for Winnipeg, and with Laine, the Jets should return to the playoffs.

 

Jesse Puljujarvi

• Brings the Four Ss to the table with A+ grades in Size, Speed, Skill and Shot ability
• MVP in the World Junior Championship where his 17 points were second to only Jaromir Jagr for a player under 18 and tied him with Wayne Gretzky and Eric Lindros. That'll do for company.
• Lands in an ideal spot to flank Connor McDavid for the next half dozen years in a potential throwback line reminiscent of Gretzky and Jari Kurri.
• Edmonton landed another high-end offensive star in the making.

 

Pierre-Luc Dubois

• A huge climber in the draft rankings throughout the year, and while a potential No. 1 center with size and skill, Dubois likely has some development still ahead.
• It would be surprising to see him play for Columbus this season. Or perhaps put better, a surprise to see him play well enough to be a fantasy asset next year.
• Of the top-four picks, Dubois has the highest percentage of being a bust and the lowest fantasy floor, albeit, he's progressed significantly over the past 10 months and is a top-five grab in keeper or dynasty setups.

 

Matthew Tkachuk

• A future fantasy star in the mold of Milan Lucic and David Backes in their primes, and there is potential for Tkachuk to ascend higher in terms of offensive production.
• Looking ahead, this is a great fit for Tkachuk and Calgary, as their core up front has four solid youngsters in Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett and now Tkachuk. Add T.J. Brodie and Dougie Hamilton on the blue line, and Calgary has positioned themselves well.

 

Brian Elliott

• Calgary allowed the second-most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season with a 2.58 mark, and the Flames had the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league (75.6 percent).
• The team projects to remain largely the same, but between new head coach Glen Gulutzan and Elliott, there should be some improvement defensively and in net for Calgary.
• It would be a little surprising if Elliott's ratios didn't face negative regression, but with a starter's workload, he should add a few more wins and finish the season as a viable No. 2 goalie option.

 

Jake Allen

• Among goalies with at least 3000 minutes of action, Allen ranks 20th in five-on-five save percentage with a .925 mark.
• He'll see a full-time workload behind a solid team and should settle in as a solid No. 2 and potentially a fringe No. 2 for fantasy teams.

 

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Andrew Shaw inked a six-year, $23.4 million dollar contract ($3.9 million annual cap hit) Monday.

“We are very pleased to have agreed to a long-term deal with Andrew Shaw,” general manager Marc Bergevin said in a statement. “As I mentioned last Friday following his acquisition, we are adding a solid character player to our team, a reliable player who plays with grit and a two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Chicago Blackhawks over the past five seasons. Andrew will add more leadership to our team. I had the opportunity to talk with him over the past few days, and I sense his determination and excitement in joining the Canadiens’ organization for many years to come.”

If you missed Cliffy's take on the deal from Friday, here it is.

In deep rotisserie leagues, Shaw has late-round value because of his cross-category production. He should approach 20 goals and 40 points with approximately 150 shots, 75 penalty minutes and 150 hits.

Often Shaw's former role with the Chicago power play comes to mind, but it's worth noting he only returned 23 power-play points over the past three seasons. If he is a member of the No. 1 PP unit in Montreal, it will be a forced move.

Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher should be the three forwards rolled out on the top unit.

At even strength, it'll all depend on where Shaw fits into the lineup, which in terms of offensive talent, is a shallow group. Shaw's a low-upside bet in points leagues.

 

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Being a restricted free agent, Filip Forsberg has been a popular name in my ramblings. I've touched on him here and here, and now that he's locked in with Nashville for the next six years at an annual $6 million cap hit, here's a summary for the last time.

First, though,

“Filip is among the most skilled, dynamic talents we've ever had in the organization and is an integral part of our success for the next six years and beyond,” Predators general manager David Poile said in a statement. “While we have already seen his creativity, hockey sense and puck skills, he has yet to reach the peak of his abilities.

"We have full confidence that he will continue to blossom into one of the top players in the world."

 

This is basically where he should be viewed in fantasy, too. Being one of the best fantasy players in hockey is well within reach sooner than later. However, with at least 30 goals, 30 assists and 225 shots, Forsberg was one of only nine players to hit all three marks last season.

 

Considering Forsberg turns 22 this summer and is just entering his offensive prime, it wouldn't be a stretch to count on his first 70 point season. Skating with Ryan Johansen full time should help, but that's a wait-and-see situation.

Here's a list of wingers, off the top of my head, I'd grab before Forsberg this fall:

Jamie Benn

Alex Ovechkin

Joe Pavelski

Patrick Kane

Vladimir Tarasenko

Max Pacioretty

Maybes: Nikita Kucherov, Phil Kessel, Artemi Panarin, Johnny Gaudreau

 

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Emerson Etem re-signed a one-year, $775,000 contract with Vancouver.

Already 24, Etem has 46 points through 170 career games with a career 47.5 CorsiFor percentage.

He's a place holder right now, and unless he suddenly puts it all together this season and somehow approaches 20 goals, he'll need to redefine himself as a role player.

It's worth noting, his most frequent linemates in Vancouver were Linden Vey and Alex Burrows. So, maybe better linemates would help, but maybe he doesn't deserve the opportunity.

 

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New UFAs of interest (loose definition of interest):

Brandon Pirri

Linden Vey

Joe Colborne

Devante Smith-Pelly

Brett Connolly

Beau Bennett

Brett Bulmer

Cody Hodgson

Michael Bournival

Landon Ferraro

Michael Latta

Zack Phillips

Gabriel Bourque

 

Justin Schultz

Patrick Wiercioch

Jon Merrill

Philip Samuelsson

Brandon Gormley

Jarred Tinordi

 

Joni Ortio

Kevin Poulin

 

Of the group, Pirri, Vey, Smith-Pelly and Schultz are likely the only guys capable of earning fantasy value in the majority of setups.

 

Pirri can fit in a secondary role and has proven capable of scoring. He could easily slid in somewhere with a hole and return Lee Stempniak-type numbers. However, Pirri might have more upside.

With a career 14.3 shooting percentage and average of 2.16 shots per game, there is a track record of offense, and Pirri still has a few years of offensive production in the tank entering his age-25 season this fall.

 

Dobber has discussed Vey more than anyone here lately, as Vey's father was convicted of conspiring to murder Vey's mother. Sorry to overload Vey in that sentence, I just didn't want there to be any confusion, I don't know anything about Dobber's parents. Vey could land in an ideal situation and receive power-play time to bolster his fantasy value high enough for deep leagues, it's just unlikely, at this point. 

 

Schultz had a nice run with the Penguins and could still return. However, after proving he can handle himself on a Cup winner, it would seem likely he is offered a salary that prices him out of the Penguins' grasp.

Where he lands will obviously have a huge impact on what happens to his fantasy value, but he'll turn 26 this offseason and will need the right minutes, including power-play time, to approach 35 points. It's still within reach, though.

 

I'm not a big believer in Wiercioch, but he likely can help a team in a supporting role. His 2013-14 season was fantasy relevant with 23 points and 12 power-play points through just 53 games.

He's a player to watch, but likely doesn't see power-play minutes with very many clubs.

 

The Devils are hoping to sign Smith-Pelly, which would likely be a best-case scenario for both. Smith-Pelly is unlikely to see the offensive minutes he did with New Jersey last year with another club, and he had a nice run to finish the season (13 points through 18 games).

Smith-Pelly is a viable late-round flier in deep leagues if he sticks with the Devils. However, you'd like to see the shot volume increase (1.47 shots per game last year), and he doesn't take that many penalties (30 PIM in 2015-16).

 

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Dobber broke down the Alex Chiasson deal Monday.

The key point is the potential connection between Chiasson and recently hired Calgary head coach Glen Gultuzan.

This is a really low-impact trade in fantasy terms, though.

 

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Cheers, Dobberheads.