P.K. Subban Traded Straight Up for Shea Weber

Dobber

2016-06-29

Fantasy Impact: The Montreal Canadiens have traded P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber in a swap of elite defensemen.

The Habs get: an elite right-shooting defenseman who some would say is the best defenseman in the game. At issue here is Weber's age, contract and cap hit.

The Preds get: an elite right-shooting defenseman who some would say is the best defenseman in the game. Though not as many as those who would say that about Weber.

The issues here:

Age – Weber is 30, Subban is 27. Advantage Nashville.

Contract – Weber is signed through 2026, Subban through 2022. Advantage Nashville

Cap Hit – Weber's hit is $7,857,143, Subban's is $9,000,000. Advantage Montreal

Clauses – Subban has a No-Move Clause. Weber does not. Advantage Montreal

Team Canada – Weber is on Team Canada, Subban is not. So the best (?) hockey minds that Canada has to offer would prefer Weber on their team.

Offensive upside – Weber can tally 65 points, he has that ability. His career high is 56. Subban can tally 70 points, he has that ability. His career high is 60.

Division battles – Subban had an easier time of things in terms of scheduling last season because he played the Leafs and the Sabres a lot. Just one 100-point team (Panthers). Weber had three 100-point teams in his division and so his production was harder to come by. Something to think about…

I really like both players and I see this trade being an even one for each of the next five seasons. Then you'll see Subban as the better option for two or three more. After that, I'm sure Weber will have retired for those last two seasons on his contract. If not, he's good enough today that he'll still be a serviceable depth player when he's 39 and 40. Montreal gets a sliver of an upgrade on the player immediately and sliver of cap help. Longer-term the pendulum swings to Nashville. But it's really too close to call overall. The fact is, both teams get a shakeup and both teams will probably respond to it.

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Fantasy Players Impacted: Nashville's offense has improved tremendously since Barry Trotz moved on. They have star scorers and everything! So Subban isn't being banished to Fantasy Siberia everybody, take a deep breath. In fact, dishing the puck to Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen is probably an upgrade to dishing the puck to Max Pacioretty and Alex Galchenyuk. I'm going to consider both Weber and Subban of equal value before and after this trade. If anything, they may each see an uptick due to the new environment, the 'something to prove' syndrom, etc.

The move being a straight swap of players who play the same position and role, it doesn't impact the other players at all. Weber was seeing 3:03 of PP ice time per game last season and Roman Josi was seeing 3:03 of ice time per game as well. Subban filling that spot won't hurt Josi at all.

Fantasy Players this helps, in order:

Nobody

Fantasy Players this hurts, in order:

Again – nobody. I wish it were more complicated, but this was a "shake-up" deal with some cap implications, nothing more.

Subban – full stats and game logs here.

Weber – full stats and game logs here.

There's already seven pages of discussion in the forum on this. Have your say here!

Steve 2016-06-29 at 17:44Log in to Reply

Nobody would say Weber is the best defenceman in the game…
- number54 2016-06-29 at 18:04Log in to Reply
  
  As far as playing a complete game? Yeah, he’s going to be at the top of a lot of people’s lists for the best in the business. He’s definitely at the top of my list, so that shoots down the hyperbole right there.
  - Steve 2016-06-29 at 18:07Log in to Reply
    
    He used to be. Now, not so much. Not sure he’s top 10 in the league. He wasn’t the best dman on his team. I don’t think anyone can be taken seriously if they say he’s the most complete Dman in the league. In the flip side, subban is nowhere close to that title. Karlsson and doughty are clear top 2 and after that it is muddied.
    
    This coming from a Weber fan and a guy who does not like subban for his cancerous ways. The Habs did well today IMO.
    - Dobber 2016-06-29 at 19:55Log in to Reply
      
      I’m a Subban fan and if you’re in the forum you know that I preach that Team Canada should start with Subban and then decide if Weber should be added. I get pissed that it’s the opposite. But the point is – it is the opposite. Team Canada starts with Weber as their right shooter, and build around him. They even left Subban off altogether! So yes, some people – experts even – say Weber is the best or up there.
      - Steve 2016-06-29 at 20:31
        
        again I haven’t seen anybody say Weber is the best dman. Almost everyone agrees karlsson and doughty are superior and most are saying Josi is better.
        
        But yeah I agreed with team canada leaving a risky subban off the team. He’s just a hothead who can’t be trusted at th right time
    - number54 2016-06-29 at 20:39Log in to Reply
      
      Well, agree to disagree. I think he’s about the closest thing in today’s game to Chris Pronger. I do think he’s the best defenseman on his team, and you’re going to see the effects of losing him on NSH’s shot suppression immediately. I mean Nashville just went in one year from having a solid defensive-minded team to Subban, Josi and Ellis as their top-3 with limited support behind them. Look at the usage charts for NSH. He and Josi played >90% of ES shifts together against by far the toughest QoC, and yet Weber’s got the better CORSI of the two. I won’t be surprised if people change their minds about this by next year.
lcbtd 2016-06-29 at 18:22Log in to Reply

I’ve kept pretty close tabs on the Nashville d over the years and Josi has slowly, but steadily, crept up on Weber until this year when he took over the title of most important dman in Nsh.

So if Weber isn’t even the top dog in Nsh, he can’t be the “best defenseman in the game”.

I agree on the minimal impact but I think Nashville did quite well on this. Montreal will see what Nsh fans have seen, that Weber’s game isn’t what it’s cracked up to be.

Bergevin, in losing this trade, still did 100 times better than Chiarelli though . ..
- djr417 2016-06-29 at 20:49Log in to Reply
  
  Watching the Preds during the playoffs (small sample) I came away even more impressed with not only Josi, but Ellis as well, but Weber was still top dog. Nashville gets a dynamic player whom the fans will love, but will the coach? It may be addition by subtraction in Montreal, with the added bonus of some cap savings, and Webers last 3 years are only $1mil per, while Subbans deal runs out when he is only 32.
Dave Harding 2016-06-29 at 21:27Log in to Reply

I would argue that this helps Weber and hurts Subban. Subban averaged 4:37 on the PP Weber was 3:03. So it looks to me that weber is going to get a minute a half more PP time. No one there to cannibalize his time like in Nashville and Subban will lose a minute and a half.
- Hugo Twigg 2016-06-30 at 12:54Log in to Reply
  
  The trade helps Subban because he’s freed from Therrien’s system. This trade hurts Weber because he’s gone from playing with Forsberg,Neal,Johansen,Josi on the PP to Galchenyuk-Pacioretty-Gallagher-Markov (not a lot worse but still is). Oh and Weber now plays under Therrien. -10 for Weber.
  - Dobber 2016-06-30 at 13:12Log in to Reply
    
    And then +10 for Weber because he’ll face the Leafs and Sabres and Senators a LOT, instead of the Blues, Blackhawks and Stars. Net result: EVEN
Happyspleen 2016-06-30 at 10:40Log in to Reply

One thing I think is missing from the “hockey” side of the analysis here – Subban plays much more to the “superstar” role than Weber ever did. He leaves a massive footprint on the community. He plays the game with as much flair and passion as anyone. He’s PRECISELY the kind of player a small-market team in a non-traditional hockey city needs.

On top of this, and it may seem like a crude analysis but nonetheless relevant, he’s black. More than 1/4 of Nashville’s population is African American. That is a great demographic to grow the team’s presence in the community.

Finally, I’d like to point out that this was actually a bit of a risk for the Preds. Weber’s contract was signed before the current CBA, which means that if Weber retires or is bought out before the end of the contract, Nashville will incur some pretty massive cap recapture penalties. I’ve seen a calculation suggesting that if he retires before his last season (a la Datsyuk), Nashville will get hit with an $24 million cap recapture penalty that has to be paid in ONE YEAR.

This is probably unlikely, given that contract situations like that (e.g. Pronger/Savard/Datsyuk) have value to teams looking to hit the cap floor and not have to pay any real money, and so are used as assets. But just imagine – Chicago trades for Weber’s contract in 2024 (2 years before his contract is up) and buys him out, resulting in 2 years of a $6 million cap hit to Nashville. That would be amazing.
JF Bessette 2016-06-30 at 12:34Log in to Reply

I think it helps:
Carey Price
Habs’ plus/minus
Whoever is paired with Weber as this defenseman wont have to necessarily stay deep in his zone
- Hugo Twigg 2016-06-30 at 12:53Log in to Reply
  
  Sadly this is not good for Carey Price or the Habs defense since Shea Weber is a worst defender than PK Subban. Go look at Weber’s defensive metrics, he’s bad.
  - Dobber 2016-06-30 at 13:10Log in to Reply
    
    His metrics are fine. His quality of competition faced is among the toughest in the league (1.5 compared to Subban’s 1.0, for example). It’s good to look at more than one website/one chart to get your metrics, if you’re into that stuff.

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