Ramblings: Ondrej Palat, Ryan Kesler, Colton Parayko, Roy Quits, and More (August 12)

Michael Clifford

2016-08-11

Ondrej Palat, Ryan Kesler, Colton Parayko, Patrick Roy quits, and more

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Ondrej Palat

Just like those that drafted Tyler Johnson last year, any of the fantasy owners that drafted Ondrej Palat were disappointed with the final result. Palat missed 20 games, and managed just 40 points, which was over 20 points off the average he managed in his first two seasons (61). Of course, the injuries had a huge effect here, and if Palat had played 82 games, at his point pace, he finishes with 53 points. Still likely a disappointment, but nowhere near the 40-point season he had.

It was all-around just bad news for Palat. He set a career-low in individual points percentage (the rate at which he tallies a point on five-on-five goals with him on the ice), career-low in first assists, career-low in on-ice shooting percentage, career-low in shots on goal per 60 minutes, and the list goes on. In that sense, it’s kind of astounding that Palat was still on pace for 53 points in 82 games.  

Knowing the downturn Palat had should give fantasy owners hope going into next year. Over their first two seasons together, Palat and Tyler Johnson were on the ice for over 60 shot attempts and 3.4 goals per 60 minutes. That was in 1500 minutes played. Last year, those numbers, specifically the goals, came down a fair amount to 56.6 and 2.60.

The one kicker here is that there is no real telling how the lineup is going to shake out for the Lightning. Are the Triplets going to be reunited behind a Drouin/Stamkos top line? Is Kucherov going to play on the top line, with someone like Ryan Callahan with Palat/Johnson? At present time, there’s no real telling, and that could throw a wrench into all of this.

Palat should come at a good value in drafts. The season following a year when a good player disappointed fantasy owners is usually when the value appears. This is true for Tyler Johnson, and I suspect it’ll be true for Palat as well.  

Ryan Kesler

For the first time since 2010-2011, Ryan Kesler cracked the 50-point mark. Considering he had back-to-back 70-point seasons once upon a time, including a 40-goal campaign, it seems kind of hard to believe. And yet, here we are.

Looking over Kesler’s 2015-2016 season, though, and it seems like this is about as good as it is going to get for him. For starters, his 2.08 shots per game was the lowest for him in a season in nearly a decade. That wasn’t a function of ice time, either, as Kesler’s 6.06 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five was the lowest for him in a full season since 2007. And it gets worse.

These are the comparables for Kesler in points per 60 minutes over the last three seasons. This is with a minimum of 2500 minutes played (taken from Hockey Analysis):

Things weren’t great this year for Kesler, even with the 53 points, as his points/60 minutes (1.39) was slightly under that of Brian Gionta (1.40). In other words, Kesler’s “resurgent” season was a function of playing a ton of minutes, and nothing else.

Of course, that shouldn’t really matter too much to fantasy owners. There is no way Kesler’s ice time goes down by any significant amount this season, so he could be terribly inefficient again, and still crack 50 points. At the end of the day, the final tallies are all that really matter.

So if anything, Kesler should be drafted with confidence in roto leagues, rather than trepidation. When it comes to producing points in an efficient manner, he’s proven to be one of the worst regulars in the NHL at doing this. But he should still get regular power play minutes, and anything can happen in a given season. Anaheim could shoot 8-percent with him on the ice next year, rather than 6-percent, and he can push 60 points.

I am not a fan of Kesler as a fantasy producer, but someone that will get this much ice time cannot be ignored. He is a high-floor guy, which means a safe draft pick.

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What to make of Colton Parayko next year? The big St. Louis blue liner had a breakout year last year, and for the most part, it was kind of out of nowhere. That isn’t to say it can’t be repeated, but rather the contrary – Parayko will be a top pair defenceman in short order.

The problem is that there are two top-tier defencemen blocking him. It seems as though Parayko is running into the problem that Dougie Hamilton and Alec Martinez run into on their respective teams; they can be very good, but they’re far enough down the depth chart that the loss of time on ice is a problem.

Parayko should get up to about 21 minutes next year, and second power play unit time (maybe even first depending how they’re deployed). For now, though, it seems he’s probably capped at 40 points. That’s still a very good season, so keep an eye on his ADP. There was nothing really out of line in his underlying numbers, so if he can be grabbed as something like a third defenceman in a 12-team league, I’m all for it.

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I mentioned in yesterday’s Ramblings that there is a lot of good data that is coming out which helps analyze hockey further. I would like to present the following.

The great group of writers over at Hockey-Graphs has been working on a passing project, headed by Ryan Stimson, to help quantify what exactly happens on the ice. They’ve looked at things like neutral zone transition, and dangerous in-zone passes. It’s the former, using data for neutral zone tactics, that I’d like to bring up. The article can be read here, and I very much encourage readers to go through it. It is very thorough, and very informative.

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This reinforces work done earlier by Eric Tulsky and others, describing how the nature of entering the zone correlates to goal scoring. Their work is based off the Three Zone Project by Corey Sznajder, which can be purchased here.

Fantasy owners are always looking for an edge, and this type of work can help provide it. I can speak to this specifically, as using Sznajder’s work from the 2013-2014 season led me to conclude that Roman Josi’s 40 points that year was not a fluke, and in fact he should improve upon it. I had Josi ranked as a top-20 defenceman going into the 2014-2015 season, and a big reason I had him that high was the data found in Sznajder’s work.

Again, I encourage readers to read both the article above, and to visit the Three Zone Project (note that project is only for the 2013-2014 season, but I believe Mr. Sznajder is working on other things at the moment). It is good information that can help either uncover diamonds in the rough, or help build a case for a player.

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It’s going to get talked about at length, but realistically, what are everyone’s expectations for Alex Radulov this year? At times, I’ve seen 70 points floated, which I find absurd. I think 60 points should be considered a very good year. But what about you guys? Where do you think you’ll be drafting him? Top-75? Top-100? Lower? Let me know in the comments.

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This puts Colorado in kind of a tight spot, as we’re in the second week of August, and now they have to go out and find a coach. Not only find a coach, but a good one, and the good, familiar coaches have been hired. They have some work to do.

From a fantasy aspect, I couldn’t have said it any better than this

Roy was not a good coach. By any objective measure, he failed this team. They were abysmal at both ends of the ice, and the only reason they managed to score was the plethora of extremely talented forwards they have. Whatever success Colorado had – like winning the division – wasn’t because of Roy it was in spite of him.

This is good news for fantasy owners have any of the Colorado players. The team didn’t really lose anyone of consequence since last season, and added some good depth on the blue line (something they had been lacking for a while). With the likes of MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Soderberg, and Iginla, Mikko Rantanen likely figuring in, plus decent support pieces like Mitchell and Comeau, this is a talented forward group. As long as Semyon Varlamov is solid in net, this is a group that can at least contend for a wild card playoff spot.

Hopefully the Avs start playing less run-and-gun, and a more contemporary style of hockey. Being able to consistently generate offence through controlled zone entries and extended zone time has not been a hallmark of this team. Neither has adequate defensive zone coverage. If they do go in that direction, it could be a big boost for the fantasy-relevant forwards.

We have to wait and see who will be hired as the coach first, but it surely can’t get much worse than the last three years. There is a lot of talent and decent depth on this roster. They can do better than they have. Let’s see if they do.

*Stats from Hockey Reference and Hockey Analysis. Cap information from Cap Friendly.

 

16 Comments

  1. Striker 2016-08-12 at 07:50

    Well Callahan will be out until late November or December due to surgery in June. That makes the top 6 in TB far clearer in the short term & really in the long term as well. Callhan is the #3 RW now unless Drouin is returned to LW & that would mean bumping Killorn to #3 LW; not ideal & unlikely. Callahan’s contract is now problematic as it’s far to much money to be paying a checker.

    Almost all teams seem to run pairs now with the 3rd member of the line in constant flux. Often only the #1 line or 1B line maintains it’s pairing; numerous teams now don’t have a clear #1 or 2 line but sort 2 top lines, a 1A & 1B, & the other lines get juggled up as required, primarily due to injuries & as you move down through the 2nd & 3rd lines these players often take on penalty killing roles requiring on the fly tweaking during games, messing up line combinations for extended periods of a game if penalty filled.

    Examples.

    Anaheim; Getzlaf & Perry, until Baudreau broke them up last season.
    Boston. Marchand & Bergeron.
    Buffalo. Eichel & Reinhart.
    Calgary. Gaudreau & Monahan.

    You get the idea & in TB it’s Johnson & Palat. Certainly having Kucherov as your RW is a benefit to any players. He is easily TB’s best offensive star now.

    Killorn, Stamkos, Drouin.
    Palat, Johnson, Kucherov.
    Namestnikov, Fillpula, Callahan; when healthy/Brown.
    Pacquette, Boyle, Condra.

    Flip flop Drouin & Kucherov as desired Cooper will. Killorn & Palat will even change as Cooper did last season for a significant stretch. Namestnikov had a nice run centering Stamkos for a period of time last season. Callahan primarily had a checking role with Filppula on the 3rd line but he also had a run of 12 to 15 games with Stamkos where he produced in this role.

    I think targeting top 6 players who see at least top 10 PP TOI/GP is essential. Even a 3rd line player who see’s quality PP time is a solid asset in the leagues & pools I participate in as they run deep. Pools 300 deep, Fantasy leagues 460 plus 140 prospects; although all 140 spots are rarely filled, my 7 are. I’m not quite as concerned who their linemates are, obviously it’s an issue but usually for the players that can’t generate offense alone who are really border line top 6 players, their asignments are key if they lose them their points vanish. The Johnson’s Palat’s will get their points regardless of who their linemates are. If their roles are reduced their points will decline but their not falling off the world.

    Take Abdelkader out of the top 3, hell even top 6 in Detroit, stop giving him 1st line PP time & his points would plummet. 42 points with this amount of TOI/GP & PP TOI/GP is being wasted on a player like Abdelkader who even with all that quantity & quality can still only post 42 points. He should be a 3rd line checker & Tatar should be getting those quality & quantity minutes.

    • Adam M Beauchamp 2016-08-12 at 09:23

      Good post. I never understood why they signed Callahan to that contract in the first place knowing all the guys they were gonna have to pay over the next 3 years. Tatar should be getting those minutes from Abdelkader but detroit seems lost since babcock left.

    • Stu Campaigne 2016-08-12 at 14:20

      “Flip flop Drouin & Kucherov as desired Cooper will.”

      Master Yoda, is that you?

      • Striker 2016-08-12 at 15:25

        I own a Yoda mask does that count?

        Feel the Force Stu. Stu use the force.

    • Michael Clifford 2016-08-12 at 17:29

      That’s a good point about how running pairs is becoming pretty much the norm now. I suppose the question is which pairs is Tampa Bay going to run? I don’t think that’s too clear, and that worries me for fantasy. 

  2. Ryan Lenethen 2016-08-12 at 08:06

    Personally I doubt I would draft Radulov unless everyone took a pass on him and I could get him for a steal. The odds of that happening are probably not good as there will be someone in the pool with high hopes, or willing to take a chance.

    Key here is “chance”. You are rolling the dice with this guy. Playing Russian Roulette so to speak with your hockey pool. Were I to attach some numbers I would say that I don’t think 60 pts is unreasonable, however I’d draft him like a 60 point player that is very injury prone, and may miss a considerable number of games. Not that he is injury prone, only that there are a lot of thing that could happen more less outside of his level of skill that could affect the numbers he is able to put up. I think he is one of those Boom or Bust kind of players. Either he will do very well and put up a lot of points for you, or he will be less than useless. His history in the NHL points to useless, however you’ll have to roll the dice to find out…

    • Dobber 2016-08-12 at 08:37

      Sometimes it’s better to be safe.

      But the odds of Radulov going out and getting 70 points this season are greater than the odds of say Matthews or Eichel going out and getting 70 points. However, his odds of getting less than 40 points are greater than those two also.

      Russian Roulette indeed, but the stakes are higher than 60 points. I made him a keeper over Brassard and Burakovsky in my keep 12 league. A worthy risk, a risk worth taking over the usual risk that people are fine with when they draft a top prospect.

      • Paul 2016-08-12 at 09:51

        For me, Radulov has an upper bound in the 80s, lower bound in the 40s. A reasonable average expectation is 60ish, but the potential homerun outcome is so attractive that I think you’ve gotta take him. I picked him up in all my leagues towards the end of last season in the hope he’d come back to the NHL since his KHL deal was over. If you’re in a 1-year league or he’s available in a keeper, I’d be picking him up with the 55-60-point players, and hoping for the best case.

      • Xavier Simon 2016-08-12 at 12:00

        I’m suprise to learn that the odds of Radulov getting 70 points are greater than the the odds of Eichel getting 70 points. Projections for Eichel in the Dobber guide is 72 points.

        • Dobber 2016-08-12 at 12:07

          Pfft don’t read too much into that. My comments are unresearched and off the top of my head. Usually they’re close, but if the Guide says one thing and I knee-jerk a comment on here that says four points less – just go with the guide.

          • Xavier Simon 2016-08-12 at 12:13

            Fair enough. It’s just seeing Eichel ranked above guys like Giroux, Kopitar and Thornton in the ranking I assumed you were very high on Eichel.

          • Dobber 2016-08-12 at 12:23

            of course I am, he’s awesome

    • Michael Clifford 2016-08-12 at 17:30

      I’m kind of leaning towards this as well. Something that isn’t talked about frequently w/r/t Radulov is that if he doesn’t conform to the way Michel Therrien wants him to play, he will see his ice time cut. This has happened for almost every player the Habs have brought in over the years, and it remains to be seen if he will. 

  3. Mark McAuley 2016-08-12 at 18:45

    Something that has to be taken into account when predicting Radulov’s numbers is his propensity for injury. I have him pegged for 51 points in 70 games, a 60-point pace. The fact that he’s an expensive signing means he’ll get way more rope than Semin did, but I have to wonder how well Radulov and Therrien will get along. If Radulov puts up decent numbers but is lazy in his own zone or takes too many penalties (he racked up lots in the KHL), he could find his EV minutes reduced or end up getting benched.

    • Dobber 2016-08-12 at 19:01

      He won’t be benched, but I agree about the injuries. They have been adding up lately. I gave him 74 games.
      Three years ago, under Trotz (more of a hardass than Therrien and more defensive-minded too) he was a point per game during a short stint that included playoff minutes, while making pennies. So a benching won’t happen, and I don’t think weak production happens either. It could, but I think it’s lower risk than you believe

      • Mark McAuley 2016-08-14 at 15:35

        I hope you’re right. I’d love to see Montreal make the playoffs. I was a big fan of Radulov before he headed back to Russia. That really annoyed me because I had planned to draft him for years. At least now the Preds have some upper-tier offensive forwards as well as what is perhaps the best top-4 defensemen in the NHL. If the Rinne of a few years ago were to return, they could have an amazing year and hopefully win a few rounds.

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