Ramblings: Disappointments from 2015-2016, Player Tracking, Vrbata, and More (August 18)

Michael Clifford

2016-08-17

Some disappointments from 2015-2016, World Cup tracking, Radim Vrbata, and more

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Over the summer, I’ve pointed out a few players that may come at good value next year because they disappointed fantasy owners last year. There is no time when a player’s value will be higher than just after they burned a fantasy owners provided, of course, that it is actually a good player, and not a one-year wonder fluke.

Some of the players I have mentioned recently include Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson. There are others, of course, that should come in at a depressed ADP just because of their performance last season. They’re still good players, though, and the depressed ADP presents a value opportunity.

Jakub Voracek

The 55 points that Voracek put up last year were clearly a disappointment to fantasy owners, considering he was probably drafted in the second round at some point. The thing is, that mark is actually the second-highest of his career, and the point/game mark of 0.75 was almost identical to his 2013-2014 season, when he posted a 0.76. So, disappointment relative to ADP? Yes. Disappointment relative to what he’s done for the majority of his career? That’s up for debate.

Voracek’s biggest problem was goal scoring, as his 11 goals was considerably lower than what he managed in the three previous seasons (22, 23, 22 in 48 games). A big reason for that was his power play goal scoring, where he tallied just one goal, after posting totals of 11, 8, and 8 (in 48 games) the previous three seasons. If he scores eight power play goals last year, he manages 62 points, and is likely seen much less as a disappointment.

This is where it’s important to note that Voracek shot 1.33-percent on the power play last year. Over the previous three seasons, Voracek shot 13.54-percent. If he shoots at that three-year rate last year, on the 75 shots he landed on net, he has 10 power play goals, which would be about average for him. This is where I feel comfortable saying there is no chance that Voracek repeats a 1.33-percent shooting rate on the power play in 2016-2017.

At five-on-five, Voracek’s shooting rate in 2015-2016 was 6.72-percent, whereas that was 9.44-percent over the previous three seasons. So if he shoots is career average last year, he scores 11 five-on-five goals instead of eight. In sum, if Voracek shoots his three-year rate at both five-on-five, and on the power play, he adds 12 goals to his total. That means Voracek would have 67 points in 73 games, or something close to what fantasy owners would expect.

Voracek should see a big turnaround next year. He missed as many games in 2015-2016 as he did from 2008-20