Top 10 Players Affected by Offseason Moves

Tom Collins

2016-09-19

The Top 10 players affected by offseason moves

There's always a lot of hype around NHL free agent signings and off-season trades. But this season took the cake as one of the craziest yet.

But not all these signings and trades will have a positive impact on the players' fantasy value. For example, Loui Eriksson would have gotten around the same amount of points whether he signed in Vancouver or stayed in Boston: Around 50 points. So his fantasy value didn't change.

But for some guys it changed dramatically. Here are the top 10 players whose fantasy value changed thanks to offseason moves.

10. Kerby Rychel

Rychel for whatever reason seemed to have fallen out of favour in Columbus. Why else trade him to Toronto for pretty much nothing? Rychel played just 32 games last year and averaged 9:31 ice time per game. Going to Toronto is great for Rychel. Instead of trying to beat out veterans who are making boatloads of money, he has to compete against young players who haven't proven anything and can be easily sent down to the minors. Rychel could be a solid multi-cat contributor as he likes to hit, shoot and will pick up PIM as well. He still needs to make the squad but if so, he's a sneaky sleeper pick.

9. Mika Zibanejad

I really like Zibanejad in New York and think he's ready to have a breakthrough year. He's had flashes in the past (including 16 points in his last 22 games last year) and has shown improvement every season so far. The trade could also make him more determined to prove his doubters wrong. I think he'll become a surprise faceoff star this year as well.

8. Teuvo Teravainen

Going from Chicago to Carolina is the best thing for Teravainen's NHL and fantasy career. He was never a consistent top-six player in Chicago, although he had looks with both Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. But his most frequent line combination had him playing with Phillip Danault and Andrew Desjardins. But now he's expected to be on the top line in Carolina and will get an opportunity to see lots of power play time to boot. So he now finds himself in a great opportunity.

7. Frederik Andersen

Andersen's fantasy value took a nose dive with his trade to Toronto this summer. He's gone from one of the best teams in the league that is strong defensively to one of the youngest teams in the league that is going to have a steep learning curve. Anderson's numbers are going to take a hit in pretty much every fantasy-relevant category.

6. Jiri Hudler

I've mentioned this before, but Hudler's 70-point season came one year too early. Instead of being rewarded with a handsome payday, Hudler signed just a one-year deal with Dallas worth $2 million. But Dallas was one of the best landing spots for him. He gets an opportunity to play on the top line and could be on the number one power play unit for the highest scoring offense in the league.

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5. Alexander Radulov

Just the fact he is now going to play in the NHL this season is going to put him on a list like this as he hasn't been a fantasy option for about eight years. But who knows what to expect from the 30-year-old Russian. He hasn't played in the NHL in four years — and that was just a handful of games — but was dynamite in the KHL. I've seen projections for him ranging anywhere from 42 to 65 points. Fantasy GMs are obviously hoping for the latter.

4. Brian Elliott

Sure Elliott won't have to worry about a young backup breathing down his neck any more. But he's gone to a team that is worse defensively. Elliott is obviously a better option than the goalies that Flames had last season. But you can't count on him to stay healthy. His wins, shutouts, GAA and save percentage should all become worse this season.

3. Keith Yandle

I really like Yandle having a big season in Florida, and it would not surprise me to see him reach 60 points this year. His power play points really got affected in New York. In Arizona he would get about 30-plus power play points per season. In New York, that dipped to 22 per season as the Rangers simply do not get as many power play opportunities. Now that he's in Florida, expect his power play points to go back up. An extra 10 power play points would have put him at 57 points last year. So he could easily flirt with 60 points.

2. Taylor Hall

Hall's trade to New Jersey will have a negative impact on his fantasy value. No longer will he be playing with Jordan Eberle, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He's now playing on with Mike Cammalleri, Adam Henrique, Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri. That's a big downgrade. I've always been a Hall supporter. But it's going to be tough for him to get points with the Devils, who has only had one 60-point-plus player in the past four years (Jaromir Jagr in 2013-14).

1. P.K. Subban

You may notice that Shea Weber is absent from this list. That's because his value hasn't really changed much going to Montreal. He's still going to get 20 goals, 50 points, 150-plus hits, 150-plus blocked shots and 150-plus shots. But Subban is another matter. He's been in the dog house in Montreal for the last couple of years. Now he's going to get more of an opportunity to be more offensive-minded. And without the shackles of having to play under Michel Therrien, Subban should see a big improvement over his 51 points last season.

Rick Roos 2016-09-19 at 08:13Log in to Reply

Would love to see next week a list of the 10 who were most indirectly but still majorly affected by offseason moves.
- Alex MacLean 2016-09-19 at 09:02Log in to Reply
  
  Most of them are probably the ones replaced, or replacing the guys on this list. Draisaitl, Ekblad, Allen, Gibson, etc.
  I agree it would be a good list though.
- Dobber 2016-09-19 at 09:59Log in to Reply
  
  I’d like to see a World Cup fantasy impact piece next week
  - Tom Collins 2016-09-19 at 10:30Log in to Reply
    
    That’s actually the plan right now. See if anyone’s value changes because of the world cup.
BF 2016-09-19 at 09:18Log in to Reply

“Anderson’s numbers are going to take a hit in pretty much every fantasy-relevant category.”

To play devil’s advocate to this point I would like to point out a few things:
– Randy Carlyle is now the coach in Anaheim. Possession for the Ducks will drop significantly resulting in many more offensive chances for the opposition. This could result in a dip to Anaheim SV% and an increase to GAA regardless of who is in net.
– Last year, Anaheim had a marginally better possession for % than the Maple Leafs…given that the Leafs have improved (and Carlyle is coaching the Ducks) this gap will likely close meaning that Andersen won’t likely face that many more scoring chances in a given game
– Andersen is going from a situation where he started 37 games to the potential for 55-60 games (if healthy). Even at a 45% winning% his win totals would go up
– Also, his shutout totals have the potential to climb as well purely from the volume of opportunities

I think you have to look beyond the trade and actually do some additional digging into the underlying factors that will contribute to Andersen’s performance.
- Dobber 2016-09-19 at 09:58Log in to Reply
  
  The numbers do indeed indicate this for Carlyle, but as I’ve noted a few times, the unexplainable “first year coaching impact” of some of these guys throws everything out the window. Patrick Roy’s first year coaching the Avs. Hartley’s first year coaching the Flames. Carlyle’s first year coaching the Leafs… terrible possession, winning result. In Year 2 with the Ducks I think you’ll find things match up to what the stats say they should be. But in Year 1 I believe we’ll all be surprised at the terrible possession-but winning result.
  Everything you say makes 100% sense. But I’m just pointing out that unexplainable things happen with a coach like Carlyle in his first year.
- Tom Collins 2016-09-19 at 10:51Log in to Reply
  
  I agree with Dobber for most of his response. But just to add a few more thoughts on my own:
  
  – Can Carlyle come up with a system to fit the players instead of getting his players to fit into a system? He says he did the former in Toronto. He believed he didn’t have a team that could play a smart possession game. And in his mind he was proven right once Carlyle was fired and the Leafs started losing and couldn’t score. That doesn’t mean he will go with that system in Anaheim.
  
  – Andersen only started 37 games because of injuries (always a concern with him). But he was pretty good before that. From the start of the season (Oct. 10 to Nov. 6), he played in every one of the Ducks first 13 games, had a 2.03 GAA and a .935 save percentage, but just three wins because the Ducks couldn’t score. Eventually he got injured and Gibson took over the starting gig. The season before he was the team’s number one before getting injured. If Anderson starts the first 13 games for the Leafs, I don’t think his numbers look as good, except for maybe the wins. But even if he did play 60 games and win 45 per cent of them, that’s only 27 wins.
  - BF 2016-09-19 at 13:49Log in to Reply
    
    I’d just like to repeat the line in question from your article: “Anderson’s numbers are going to take a hit in pretty much every fantasy-relevant category.”
    
    And from your comment:
    “But even if he did play 60 games and win 45 per cent of them, that’s only 27 wins.”
    
    He won 22 last year so 27 wins is a 5 win improvement over his prior season victory total for fantasy owners. If you figure in the potential for one more shutout spread across the additional 23 games that’s already two improved fantasy categories. You could also argue that a SV% above the .914-.919 range he has been in the past two years ago could be improved on as well given that the Leafs continue improve on their possession metrics. Let’s also not forget that James Reimer had a .918 sv% in Toronto last season.
    
    Andersen could IMPROVE on a number of major goaltending categories this season.
    - Tom Collins 2016-09-19 at 14:19Log in to Reply
      
      He could. But I don’t think he will. I was basing my reply on your comment and your numbers. But I don’t think he plays 60 games. I don’t think he wins 45 per cent of his games he does play. I don’t think he improves on his shutout numbers. I think his GAA and save percentage will suffer.
      
      If he plays 50 (more likely), and wins 40 per cent of them, that’s just 20 wins. The Leafs as a team won just 35 per cent of their games next year. I don’t see that improving that much this season.
Clement G 2016-09-19 at 09:41Log in to Reply

What about Josi ? Will he gain or lose in every cat because of Subban ? That’s the real question for me this year.
- MarkRM16 2016-09-19 at 15:48Log in to Reply
  
  I had to analyze this one for a while to rank Josi vs other defensemen I was considering drafting. Because Subban is more aggressive offensively, taking way more risks jumping into the play than Weber, Josi will have to concentrate more on defense than normal. I doubt his powerplay numbers will dip any because they’ve been good for years despite playing with another talented D on the powerplay in Weber. A full year with Johansen and Subban in the lineup should improve Nashville’s goal scoring, so his even-strength number should increase a few % points. If I’m right, I think his numbers will end up being very similar to last year’s.
Chad Burly 2016-09-19 at 13:55Log in to Reply

I think Hall is going to have a dynamite season!
MarkRM16 2016-09-19 at 15:40Log in to Reply

While it’s true that Hall’s supporting cast in NJ isn’t as good offensively as it was in Edmonton, he’s now the go-to guy and will have all the minutes in the offensive zone and on the powerplay that he can handle. He had just 4 PPG and 12 PPP last year, averaging just 2:49 on the powerplay. With the Devils, his PP icetime should increase by at least a minute per game and his SOG will skyrocket. If he manages to stay healthy, all of his numbers ought to increase significantly. Having an easier travel schedule can’t hurt either.
- larrylintz 2016-09-19 at 19:30Log in to Reply
  
  I would also say that McDavid was, as i recall, a detriment to Hall. As soon as McD came back his line became #1pp, and Hall’s production plummetted. Oilers’ supporting cast is still better, i guess, but the 3 remaining guys haven’t exactly proven themselves to be stars quite yet.
Atomic Biscuit 2016-09-20 at 11:40Log in to Reply

Ladd getting to play with Tavares didn’t make the list? Also, if I am not mistaken, Hall didn’t play with McDavid or Eberle. He was playing with RNH and Draisaitl. This idea of McDavid making or breaking the careers of guys like Hall is becoming pretty comical and tiresome already.
- Dobber 2016-09-20 at 11:54Log in to Reply
  
  If you want to see comical – draft Taylor Hall and then have high expectations
- isle b. 2016-09-20 at 13:13Log in to Reply
  
  In the case of McDavid in particular, I have to agree. Hall has been in the same lineup as McDavid for about 45 of 380 career games and managed to put up a couple of point-per-game seasons before McJesus was old enough to get a driver’s license. Zoom out to year-by-year stats, and McD and Draisaitl have had no apparent impact on Hall’s production.
isle b. 2016-09-20 at 13:05Log in to Reply

The flip side of the Oilers hype is the Flames anti-hype. Why is a team with Giordano, Brodie and Hamilton necessarily going to be so inferior defensively as to outweigh the potential benefit Elliott will get of finally being an undisputed #1 goalie, particularly in the wins department?
Jammer 2016-09-21 at 16:09Log in to Reply

Weber is going to have a monster year. More of the offense in Nash went through Josi, in Montreal Weber is going to be the man. Also probably sees a PIM bump due to the new team effect.

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12	N.J	vs	NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12	TOR	vs	WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12	DET	vs	STL
Dec 23 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12	BOS	vs	WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12	FLA	vs	T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12	PIT	vs	PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12	NYI	vs	BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12	NSH	vs	CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12	MIN	vs	CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12	UTA	vs	DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12	VAN	vs	S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12	VGK	vs	ANA