Ramblings: Sobotka, Strome, Stralman and… Sterling? (Sept 21)

Dobber

2016-09-20

Rambling about Nichushkin, Sobotka, Strome, Stralman…Brett Sterling? And more …

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Last Fantasy Guide update was Tuesday. I also updated the Draft List. Updates are starting to come fast and furious. I think you can safely download every two days now and it will have an update or three. Soon, updates will be pretty much daily.

The biggest news of Tuesday is something that was the confirmation of the Valeri Nichushkin signing. In the KHL. He’s there for two years and if he has too much fun there, then who knows? Maybe he’ll eventually Radulov his way back over here in a decade or so. I think he’ll be back for 2018-19. I feel sorry for the owners who sat on a potential star player right from when he was drafted. Patiently sat through his missing most of a season with a hip injury, and sat through last year’s growing/adjustment pains. And now…nothing.

When I went over the lineup – sans Nichushkin – I saw the pieces on the board re-shuffle. Patrick Eaves becomes a distant, albeit injury-prone, sleeper again. I bumped him up about 10 points (still shy of getting to 30 though). Brett Ritchie also gets into more games and has a better shot at making some sort of impact. With Nichushkin in the lineup, I think that sometimes it meant that Eaves or Ritchie were out of the lineup. And that puts Jiri Hudler on the top line by default. But with Eaves and/or Ritchie in the lineup, one of them may occasionally moonlight on that top line. Which pushes Hudler down to the Spezza line. Very minimal impact here, but worth noting the domino effect.

The other KHL news of the day was that of Vladimir Sobotka. This one was also rumored for a few days. But his KHL club Omsk says that he is still under contract with them for this year. Whether that gets resolved (doubtful), I zeroed him out of my projections. It also slides Patrik Berglund back to center and on the third line, so I bumped him up to close to a 30-point player now. It also frees up a bit of time on the second PP unit, so I added a few points to Jori Lehtera. Domino effect.

Ryan Strome has signed a two-year deal worth $5 million. He had been holding out for money based on potential. Islanders were holding out for money based on performance. I think the Isles won. I didn’t think this contract would be a problem. And the only one that’s even a minor worry for me, of the remaining RFA’s, is Dmitry Orlov.

The professional tryout contracts are really rolling in now. The notables:

Jiri Tlusty will give it a try in Colorado. The door opened a little with the Mikko Rantanen injury. If Tlusty gets in there it will be at the expense of Rocco Grimaldi. And if it continues to work out, then Rantanen’s NHL return will be delayed. Colorado already has two forwards trying out, the Bourques – both Rene and Gabriel.

David Booth, Yann Danis and Sean Bergenheim signed a PTO with Anaheim. Last year Booth played in the KHL and Bergenheim played in the Swiss League. Of all the teams they could sign a PTO with, this is their best bet. Because competition for the last four forward spots include Mason Raymond, Nick Ritchie, Chris Wagner and Jared Boll – not exactly roster locks themselves (with all due respect to promising prospect Ritchie). That being said, I doubt either one makes it but if I had to pick one it would be the 32-year-old Bergenheim.

Eric Gryba has signed a PTO with the Oilers. The 28-year-old played 53 games with the Oilers (75 PIM). He’s a right-handed shot and we’re all aware of how desperate the Oilers are to add those. I think he has a shot at to become the No.7 guy.

Brett Sterling. I’ll let that name sink in with you for a moment. Okay, ready? Brett Sterling has signed a PTO with the St. Louis Blues. So what has former Dobber Darling Sterling done with himself these last four years? Well, after a year in the AHL and a year in the SHL, Sterling has dominated the Austrian League, finishing in the Top 12 in scoring the last two years. Sterling wants to return to North America and the Blues signed him so that their farm team, the Chicago Wolves, gets injected with some big-time offense. He’s easily a point-per-game at the AHL level and the Wolves had no such luxury last season. This will boost the AHL numbers of prospect defenseman Jordan Schmaltz, who will share the power play with him – watch for it.

Former Philly and Buffalo prospect Jason Akeson has signed to play next year in the KHL.

Anton Stralman has been impressive this tournament. He’s 30 years old and he’s still improving! Take that, people who think a player peaks in their mid-20s.

Aaron Ekblad left Team North America and will not play in the remainder of the tournament. They are not saying that it is a concussion, though some sources call it a mild concussion, but the party line is that it’s a sore neck. These little ‘brush off’ explanations always worry me. Remember Crosby’s sore neck? That one took weeks to escalate into finally being called a concussion. Anyway. Not to alarm you.

Evander Kane, who was cleared of criminal accusations of assault on a woman but was recently sued in civil court, is counter-suing the woman. Puck Daddy has a pretty good breakdown of the situation here.

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Artemi Panarin and the Blackhawks are talking contract extension already. If that gets done, our confidence in his fantasy outlook would certainly soar. Our drawbacks with him are:

1. He has only been around for one year

2. What if he was taken off the Kane line?

3. He has a long history with the KHL.

An extension like the one they’re talking about would take away the latter, and certainly increases the likelihood of No.2 happening long into the future.

Michel Therrien wants to start out with these line combos in his top six:

Max Pacioretty – Alex Galchenyuk – Brendan Gallagher

Andrew Shaw – Tomas Plekanec – Alexander Radulov

I think Radulov drags his two linemates upwards when it comes to potential production. But line combos are like socks – they pretty much change every day.

Just sitting around the house tonight w my dog. Felt like I should be doing something important, but couldn't put my finger on it.
— Phil Kessel (@PKessel81) September 21, 2016

Question for my American readers. Who do you blame the most for this?

a) John Tortorella

b) Patrick Kane

c) Jonathan Quick

d) USA hockey program

Where does the anger lie? Who/what let you down the most?

Scrub 2016-09-21 at 00:30Log in to Reply

I’m a Canadian reader, but if I may I’ll go with a write-in answer and say E) Dean Lombardi (unless he is covered in what was meant by ‘d’).

I know they were hamstrung a bit by the existence of Team North America, but choosing Torts to coach and setting him up with this crash-and-bang lineup over better skill options clearly backfired. Any rational person without any prior knowledge of hockey could look at simple facts and statistics and conclude that Phil Kessel should be on this team, for one minor example, but that’s just a symptom of the incorrect methodology.

Twenty years ago, a strategy like theirs was excusable, but now we have consistent, repeatable data which lends itself to conclusions that can be drawn from analytics that clearly outline how this was the wrong approach. Ignoring statistical analysis in hockey is analogous to claiming that global warming doesn’t exist. It’s stone-age thinking for the soon-to-be-underwater.
- larrylintz 2016-09-21 at 05:56Log in to Reply
  
  On the American collapse, no way can any1 blame an individual player, they were just outclassed at every level. I agree with Scrub, Lombardi made bad player choices and, as i said under the canada-us analysis piece here last week, a terrible coach choice. Torts calling out Pacioretty was classless and strategically stupid. It might work with a 19-year-old, but signalling to a room full of volunteer superstars on huge long-term contracts that they might be singled out and embarrassed on the national stage because of a few bad shifts is not going to win you the room.
  
  The one time USA beat Canada in an important international game they had a bunch of offensive stars like Hull & Modano, plus a great goalie who was hot. Hull (born in Canada btw!!!) scored that dubious winner and they pulled it off. Kessel was terrible in Olympics, I think a strong team like Canada’s would have largely nullified him, but he’s still an opportunistic SOB and could have capitalized on opportunities when Canada let its guard down. Choosing role players repeated the terrible calculation Gretzky made in assembling Canada’s awful 2006 Oly team.
- puckman 2016-09-21 at 10:10Log in to Reply
  
  Yep blame goes to the back office, but I would like to blame partially the Tampa Bay lightning for winning a stanley cup with Torts at the helm. It distorted every GM’s judgement into believing that Torto is a sort of a superior coach… I scratched my head even more when CBJ named him to lead their young squad, and now the US! But why? why? Maybe one day everyone will wake up and analyse properly and realize that Torts is nothing else than a big ego over confident and often on a power trip, which doesn’t sit well on medium and long term with top athletes (is this why marginal players succeed under him where stars often struggle?) Tortorella is nothing more that Niemi, they both have a cup, and anyone coaching or goaltending those teams could have won it as well!
  - Dobber 2016-09-21 at 10:52Log in to Reply
    
    I think this is pretty spot on. Although I do think Torts was a great coach in his day. But that style gets old after a decade or so. See Keenan, Mike. So he’s riding the coattails of that deserved Cup win even though he doesn’t have the coaching style anymore.
    
    That being said, he’s still my favorite coach for press conferences
larrylintz 2016-09-21 at 05:54Log in to Reply

Why is Hudler the automatic top line guy, doesn’t Sharp stand an equal chance. Or any1? I personally don’t trust any star beyond top 4 given how coach shuffles lines incessently.
Second, Im curious as to why regular season ramblings dissect every game, yet this world cup is giving us early look at v significant players in intense competition, and there’s not a regular analysis of games, including biggies like last night.
- Dobber 2016-09-21 at 07:00Log in to Reply
  
  Regular season Ramblings absolutely do not dissect every game. If you believe that, then you’ll be disappointed coming here this year!
  What’s there to dissect about last night’s game? That Marchand’s fantasy outlook improves because he’s playing with Crosby? That Thornton sure looks great with O’Reilly? That Kesler had a good handle on the Crosby coverage? There’s nothing really to take from these things, man. I mentioned in an earlier Ramblings about Marchand’s confidence thanks to his linemates.
  Sharp will see top line minutes too. In September, the term “top-line guy” probably indicates the guy who will play 28% of the time on that top line, while another guy plays 24%, a third guy plays 21% and a fourth guy players there 18%, with the remaining 9% split between three other players. As you say – the coach is relentless with line changes!
Grondini 2016-09-21 at 05:57Log in to Reply

BTW PTO for Booth, Danis & Bergenheim is with Anaheim and not Florida
- Dobber 2016-09-21 at 06:53Log in to Reply
  
  Argh! Thanks
  That wasn’t even an accident, I honestly believed that. Must’ve been late at night and I was running a fumes
Rinsseux 2016-09-21 at 07:17Log in to Reply

Dobbs, told ya Nichu was just smoke. This guy was overhyped from the get go. Never understood why. Put your glasses down, frown and sip on water.
The USA program was a complete disaster from day 1. Lombardi and co did a porr job putting the best team together. The LA Kings are trending downward and we now see why. This guy was fortunate to get Richards and Carter for peanuts and have Kopi and Doughty as heart and soul. Now, they will barely make the playoffs in the new, young and speedy NHL
- Dobber 2016-09-21 at 07:21Log in to Reply
  
  Ha! I don’t think the Kings make the playoffs at all. You’re right about why…
  Saying I was wrong about Nichushkin today is like saying I was wrong about Radulov 8 years ago. Now we’ll finally see that I was right about Radulov. Just like, 8 years from now, we’ll finally see that I”m right about Nichushkin!
  *puts glasses back on, smiles, sips on a coffee with Bailey’s*
  - Rinsseux 2016-09-21 at 10:56Log in to Reply
    
    Lol, I like the Baileys part. Sounds like a deal, in 8 years, will discuss Nichu. I don’t understand the Radulov part, as my comment was more about over-hyping than jetsoning to the KHL.
    - Dobber 2016-09-21 at 11:01Log in to Reply
      
      Haha, well if you were reading my stuff 10 years ago you know I overhyped Radulov more than Nich by a long stretch. But then he took off before he could really prove me right, and caught the same flack from readers then
Striker 2016-09-21 at 07:37Log in to Reply

I have Steen to play C. Like the wingers he & Stastny will be the top 2 & their wingers will ebb & flow over the course of the season. Berglund will see shifts & games at C as injuries dictate. Here’s my Blues line up at present.

Schwartz, Steen, Tarasenko.
Fabbri, Stastny, Perron.
Berglund, Lehtera, Jaskin/Rattie.
Upshall/Paarjarvi, Brodziak, Reaves/Rattie.

Rattie has waiver rights so it’s time to play him in the NHL or expose him on waivers. I assume StL will try & retain him rotating him into the line up with Paarjarvi, Jaskin & Reaves in some way until injuries, trades or a final decission on him can be made.

Regardless I don’t see how Steen doesn’t play C as the Blues are currently constructed. Should something give, injuries, trade, etc. then sure.
- Dobber 2016-09-21 at 07:42Log in to Reply
  
  Last two years Steen’s hovering around 46% at the dot, Berglund’s around 49.5%.
  Tomato/tomatto. My care-o-meter is flatlining…
- Striker 2016-09-21 at 07:42Log in to Reply
  
  I should have added that if Svoboda does return then Steen possibly moves to LW wing but is Fabbri a #3 LW? Schwartz or Steen would be the top 2. Fabbri appears to need top 6 minutes & earned that opportunity last season. He looked great playing with Stastny & of the 3, Lehtera is best suited to checking duties on the 3rd line. Hitchcock shuffles the deck quite a bit & Lehtera has a history with Schwartz & Tarasenko as well but Steen is this teams leader & go to player currently. No forward logged any more TOI/GP than Steen in any situation other than Backes SH & then we are only talking 2 seconds per game in the playoffs & 1 in the regular season per game.
  - Dobber 2016-09-21 at 07:43Log in to Reply
    
    Fabbri bumps the declining Steen down. Not the other way around.
    - Striker 2016-09-21 at 08:46Log in to Reply
      
      If Steen doesn’t log top 3 minutes for StL in all situations next season in TOI I will be shocked. He’s an injury waiting to happen & couldn’t play a full season if his life depended on it but I can’t see any scenario where he doesn’t line up in the top 6 & I assume his TOI/GP next season will lead StL for forwards yet again.
      
      How StL achieves that at present appears cloudy but I likke my scenario better than yours. Does that mean you have Lehtera centering Schwartz & Tatasenko & Berglund centering Steen at LW & ? on the 3rd line?
      - Dobber 2016-09-21 at 09:13
        
        You’ll just have to buy the Guide and find out ;)
        
        Steen will be on the PK, and will play on every line, double-shifting with the fourth liners when needed. He’s an all-around stud.
        Calling any of these players on a deep team like STL, coached by Hitchcock, a “2nd-line RW” or a “3rd-line C” or saying ” Player X won’t play with Player Y” is futile. Haven’t you learned? lol Years of Hitch being there, and every player has been on every line and it changes all the time. Eight players had 100 faceoffs or more, nothing is standard. Pointless even debating it – the only thing we know for sure is that lines will get juggled a lot and centermen not named Stastny and Lehtera will play on the wing a lot
      - Striker 2016-09-21 at 09:45
        
        Agreed. Most coaches run pairs now, many don’t even do that. For me it’s all very simple. Quantity & quality of ice time coupled with individual skill & line mates deployed with. I consume all stats but lend relevance to a small #. The only fancy stat I use regularly for my fantasy leagues is zone starts as my leagues are all offense all the time. Ha-ha! We have tried to implement other stats over time but democracy rules. Not a single stat other than goals & assists & fantasy points for same depending upon position & if score by a Dman or any player on the PP, OT or SH.
        
        I appreciate your efforts but I write all my own material. Ha-ha! I maintain a coil binder with all relevant data, projections, sleepers, breakthrough, rookies, etc. I’m a hockey freak like you & generate a significant portion of my income from the NHL game in a weird way. I manage 8 fantasy leagues charging a fee, participating in 3 of them.
        
        As always love the writing, site & things you guys are doing. Keep up the good work.
      - Dobber 2016-09-21 at 10:50
        
        Ahhh! I understand. You can’t afford the 10 bucks! Well, I’ll flip you a freebie and you can thank me later ;)
      - Striker 2016-09-21 at 11:19
        
        Hahahahah. Not a cost issue & I admire your ability to capitalize any & all forms of things related to our passions to help off set our living & lifestyle expenses.
        
        I’m incredibly systems oriented & a creature of habit. I want specific types of data, most I generate myself. There was a time that I & a friend marketed a draft list service, even well before the creation of the internet. 12 years, It was called the “Hockey Pool Fax. Get the fax!” 200 players ranked based on specific criteria, providing relevant data for the uniformed. We used to literally fax it out; paid for advertising in conventional forums, went online when the internet became common place in the mid 90’s & continued to market until Steve passed away several years ago now. Charged $9.95 US, made decent money for data we were generating regardless. Our retention rates ran over 70% annually. Didn’t have the time to do on my own when Steve died. He did almost all the Excel work.
Rick Roos 2016-09-21 at 07:42Log in to Reply

Stralman might be improving, but if Wisniewski makes the team Stralman’s fantasy value could drop like cement
- Dobber 2016-09-21 at 07:43Log in to Reply
  
  I believed this as well. Until yesterday. That swung me. Now I”m convinced Stralman is a behemoth that not even the Wiz can take down.
- Grak 2016-09-21 at 12:33Log in to Reply
  
  In the past couple years Stralman has leeched a fair amount of PP time from Hedman. Given his performance, is this still an issue of concern for Hedman owners? Hedman’s acquitted himself reasonably well in the WC as well, but given his ES production, solidifying a role on the top PP would obviously be a significant upward shift in his ceiling.
Striker 2016-09-21 at 07:50Log in to Reply

For me the blame falls to the management group that constructed this group of players & their vision of the style of hockey they choose to implement for this tournament. Neanderthal thinking is still alive & well.
Mark 2016-09-21 at 09:00Log in to Reply

It seems like every international tournament there is a team that flops and then the shrill round of hyperbole in the press/social media begins in earnest. This time, however, I think most people would have a hard time characterizing the criticism directed at Team USA as unwarranted. The performance of the U.S. national team was the result of a perfect storm of factors: (1) a management group that made grave errors in selecting the roster; (2) the Team North America concept cannibalizing the USA roster of fast and skilled talent; (3) a poor choice of a head coach; (4) poor decision-making in setting the roster for games; and (5) a terrible performance from the few skill players on the roster. I can’t find a single positive for the U.S. team as a result of this tournament.

Dean Lombardi, Paul Holmgren, and Brian Burke have to accept blame for the initial roster and additions. There is no reason why Phil Kessel could not be a third line winger on this team given he played the same role so well in Pittsburgh through the playoffs. It turned out his omission from the team was irrelevant anyway as it appears he was suffering from an injury (but his hands seemed ok with last night’s tweet immediately following the game against Canada). Tyler Johnson and Justin Faulk have to be on this team. It’s a no brainer that they bring more to the table than Brandon Dubinsky and Jack Johnson. And their absence is all the more glaring considering other high-skill players weren’t available; Gaudreau would have made the top six and no one is going to convince me that Eichel or Matthews isn’t good enough to be a third or fourth line centre on that team. Even though good American players weren’t eligible, there’s still no excuse for some of the selections Lombardi et. al made.

Tortorella, the hockey coach equivalent of a private equity firm, put the last nail in his career by taking this job. Poor handling of players in the media, bad line-up decisions (Byfuglien plays every game on defence. Period.), and no semblance of a sustainable in-game strategy emerged. Few people have mentioned it, but it’s beyond me how Cory Schneider does not receive ice-time in this tournament. Torts has 40 games left in Columbus and then he’s dunzo.

There’s no way forward for this team except for clearing house at the management level, hope Team North America is a one-time experiment in this tournament, and pick the best players available.