Ramblings: Condon, Andersen, rookie hot starts and more (Nov 4)

Dobber

2016-11-04

Rambling about Condon, Andersen, Anderson, Hayes and more …

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My take on the Craig Anderson/Mike Condon situation is this. Anderson obviously needs to spend time with his wife. I think if Condon plays well (um…so far so good), then Anderson will be taking a couple of weeks off at minimum. But this of course depends on the seriousness of his wife’s cancer. My experience with cancer saw the best-case result in each of two recent situations that hit very close to home for me. Initially, the two situations had worst-case possibilities that were indeed grim. But things couldn’t have worked out better. Those were lucky and definitely could have gone the other way. However, in 2016 the ‘lucky’ end result is happening a lot more frequently than it was happening even five years ago. I have nothing but positive hopes, vibes and thoughts for Craig’s wife.

But I digress. Anderson has already shown that he’s there for the team if the team really needs him. Condon just spun a 27-save shutout so I’m thinking that the team doesn’t need him. For now. But if Condon were to stumble and Andrew Hammond can’t stay healthy, Anderson will come back for some spot starts. If the prognosis is promising, then Anderson will return and log a ton of games. The Sens do have games on back-to-back days in the week ahead, but Chris Driedger will likely get one of the starts. My hunch is that Andrew Hammond will be out for at least another week.

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The Sens beat the Canucks 1-0 and there was only one point given – Mike Hoffman’s unassisted goal. And since not many fantasy owners have Condon or Jacob Markstrom, nobody benefited from that game. May as well not have taken place, as far as fantasy goes.

Loui Eriksson, Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin were held pointless (duh) for the fifth consecutive game. They’ve been long since broken up:

#1           25.4%    HANSEN,JANNIK – SEDIN,DANIEL – SEDIN,HENRIK

#2           23.3%    ERIKSSON,LOUI – HORVAT,BO – SUTTER,BRANDON

#3           17.6%    BURROWS,ALEXANDRE – DORSETT,DEREK – GAUNCE,BRENDAN

#4           14%        BAERTSCHI,SVEN – GRANLUND,MARKUS – VIRTANEN,JAKE

And at this point I’m regretting my knee-jerk reaction in the Fantasy Guide when I bumped my initial points projection of all three of those guys by about three points each. That was after watching them at the World Cup. I wish I could hit ‘undo’ on that one.

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Ryan Dzingel was shut out for the third consecutive game and his ice time dipped below three minutes. Your short-term waiver fun that you were having with him is now over, but he’ll be back.

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A Philly defenseman with four points in six games, a power-play goal and zero penalty minutes? Well, that’s got to be Radko Gudas! – said nobody.

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Shane Prince started last night on a line with John Tavares and Josh Bailey. He was unable to convert and he was off that line later in the game. How I feel about Prince today is how I felt about Jonathan Marchessault a year ago today. All he needs is a chance. But that time is not now and the smart man’s bet is that he’ll never get that quality chance he needs. Next year he’ll need his own ‘Huberdeau/Bjugstad’ injury help.

I had a spot on my roster so I picked Prince up yesterday when I heard that he’d be on the Tavares line. When Conor Sheary gets back I’ll have to decide on who to drop – Prince, Anders Lee or Benoit Pouliot. I’m guessing it will be Prince, I still have hope for Lee.

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Since October 27, Frederik Andersen:

3-1-0, 1.77 GAA and 0.954 SV%

Looks like his training camp is over now and he’s playing real games! Hope you were able to swoop in and acquire him cheap from an impatient owner. He stopped 42 of 43 shots last night, and before that he stopped 44 of 46.

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Mitch Marner scored twice and now has eight points. Three of Toronto’s top four scorers are rookies. Only six forwards on Toronto have three points or more…so I guess a team’s top six doesn’t get any more clear cut than that!

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Johan Larsson has three points in his last four games. His situation is certainly different from last year, when he struggled for ice time thanks to all the players they brought in. Now he’s up nearly three minutes per game and his linemates haven’t even been great (Brian Gionta, Marcus Foligno). He’s another candidate to replace Matt Moulson on that top line once Bylsma realizes that Moulson is terrible.

Moulson has one point in his last five games, despite seeing more than 15 minutes per game and playing with Kyle Okposo and Ryan O’Reilly.

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The game I was looking forward to all week didn’t let me down – eight goals in the Rangers – Oilers game with Kevin Hayes getting three points. Hayes is really clicking with J.T. Miller and Michael Grabner (?!?). Hayes has seven points in his last three contests and 10 in 11 on the season. Third-year magic? Sure looks like it. If both Hayes and Chris Kreider are having that breakout year, than the Rangers will be a powerhouse. They already lead the NHL in goals for.

But I would bet good money that Grabner isn’t for real. Lucky to get 30 points, despite how he’s looked so far.

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Brady Skjei has six points in 11 games this year and points in three straight. In the Prospects Report I hinted that he could be another Ryan McDonagh in that he is more of a defensive stud but has hidden offensive potential. Looks like we’re seeing some of that already.

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I really enjoyed this goal:

I’m kicking tire on Maroon. I have a hunch this kickstarts something. He’s certainly getting the PP time still.

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I thought Oskar Klefbom had a good showing as power-play quarterback. I often criticize him for that, so it’s important that I give him his props. He still came up empty though.

Adam Larsson came on for a faceoff with two seconds left in a power play. He scored. But it was one second after the PP expired so he won’t get credit for one power-play goal in his two seconds of PP ice time.

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Last night Todd McLellan put Kris Russell out there on the PP instead of Andrej Sekera. So he’s starting to make changes and it’s only a matter of time before Larsson gets his shot (I hope – because I hate admitting I’m wrong).

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Mathieu Perreault and Joel Armia were injured in the third period last night. I know nothing beyond that, other than Perreault’s injury is upper body.

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Alex Ovechkin had a three-point game including the OT winner. He was pointless in two games to start the year, but has nine in eight games since. So Ovy is back.

And that means Nicklas Backstrom (also three points) and John Carlson (two points) are back.

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Keith Yandle has points in three straight games now for the Panthers, and four of the last five games.

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Undrafted former college star Nick Lappin has points in two straight – his second and third career NHL games. Not worth snagging just yet, given his ice time. But keep him on your radar and see where this goes.

Pavel Zacha scored his first career NHL goal. Here were New Jersey’s line combos:

#1 19.7% CAMMALLERI,MIKE – HALL,TAYLOR – ZAJAC,TRAVIS

#2 16.6% BENNETT,BEAU – SMITH-PELLY,DEVANTE – ZACHA,PAVEL

#3 12.4% HENRIQUE,ADAM – PALMIERI,KYLE – PARENTEAU,PA

#4 8.3% FIDDLER,VERNON – KALININ,SERGEY – LAPPIN,NICK

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Damon Severson has six points in his last four games and eight points in nine games this year.

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The little teenager – Denis Malgin – has points in three straight games. You almost never see a 5-9 teenager who was drafted as late as the fourth round become an NHL regular who produces decent points. He’s got my attention.

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I still believe that Tyler Johnson, if healthy, is close to a point-per-game player. I know many of you were getting skittish about him. His two goals last night help, but that’s just a start. He played with Alex Killorn and Brayden Point, and was off the top PP unit (troubling sign). Right now I consider him a ‘hold’.

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Nail Yakupov saw below eight minutes of ice time. To put his experience in perspective – last year with the Oilers he played three games with ice time below 10 minutes. This year with the Blues he already has five games like that.

David Perron, October 22 game – three goals, four points, plus-3

David Perron, the other 10 games – zero goals, zero points, minus-9

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Last night Tyler Seguin had four assists, Jamie Benn three assists and John Klingberg two goals. The giants have been awakened!

All six of Dallas’ defensemen picked up a point in that game.

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Nine points in 10 games now for Marian Hossa. Shop! Move him! I don’t believe he’s resurging, and even if he is – he’s injury prone. Play the odds here. Kick tires and see if anyone is interested in him.

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Michael Frolik now has eight points in 12 games. He disappointed me last year as I thought he’d get the ice time needed to take that next step. He’s a 41-point player (a point every two games) and I thought with the Flames he’d top 50 and flirt with 55. An injury derailed him last year, but his production was still near a point every two games. Perhaps this is the start of that big year.

Matt Tkachuk played in his 10th game, which generally means he’ll get to 40 and probably means he’ll stick for the season. He rewarded the Flames by scoring his second career goal.

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Besides Zacha, Christian Dvorak also scored his first career NHL goal.

 

 

13 Comments

  1. Gordonomicon 2016-11-04 at 09:29

    What the hell is the deal with David Perron? He’s killing me in one of my leagues. I bench him and he scored 3 goals. I put him back in and he puts up goose eggs. Is this just a case of bad luck? I see his PDO and 5vs5% are low, and he’s getting lots of ice time… He’s riding my bench until something changes.

    • jebb2701 2016-11-04 at 09:50

      He’s not as good as everyone made him out to be. Remember he could barely muster offense while playing with Crosby or Malkin.

      • Gordonomicon 2016-11-04 at 10:32

        Yeah, fair enough but he did put up decent numbers over 28 games with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.

        • jebb2701 2016-11-04 at 12:40

          That’s his MO, just enough to make you want him.

    • Striker 2016-11-04 at 12:10

      I’m in the same boat in 1 of my fantasy leagues. Sat him back in now & with Jokinen down with injury my only other option is Lehkonen. Deep league 20 teams 24 man rosters, dress 14 positionally, 3 C, RW, LW, 4 D & a G for games a week. Absolutely nothing available on the waiver wire. We use CBS & it’s beyond brutal. To many wingers shown as C’s, RW is even worse than LW for availability.

      Trying to trade out of the problem just to expensive at present. Something will give eventually.

  2. Instant Karma 2016-11-04 at 09:47

    If Drouin hadn’t gotten his bell rung, TyJo would have been on my bench last night. So sometimes things do work out.

    • Chris Dewalt 2016-11-04 at 10:36

      I dropped TyJo for Drouin a couple weeks ago (when Drouin was hot and glued to Stamkos’ hip). TyJo is still in the FA pool, so now I’m wondering if I should take a mulligan on that one.

  3. jebb2701 2016-11-04 at 09:50

    Nice subtle call out on Perron vs Yakupov.

  4. Jeremy Campbell 2016-11-04 at 10:04

    Loved the play from Andersen, he has really turned things around in a hurry after getting rung up by Tampa! Marner is amazing to watch, so glad he’s making a big impact so fast. It’s fun being a Leafs fan again!! My hockey pool season is off to a bad start but at least the blue and white are taking away some of my pain

  5. Chris Dewalt 2016-11-04 at 10:34

    Any more thoughts on Severson and Gudas?

    I was surprised to see Severson’s luck-based metrics actually put him in “buy” territory… PDO 984, 5on5SH% 3.95, SH% 7.1. And his offensive zone start % is down 8% from last year. Is he due for a real breakout year?

    Gudas’ luck-based metrics are reasonable too, except his SH% is a bit high. PDO 983, 5on5 SH% 6.85, SH% 10. His offensive zone start % is around the same as last year. If he could sustain even near 0.5 point per game pace, he’d be looking pretty valuable with all his hit/block/PIM contributions.

    • Dobber 2016-11-04 at 10:45

      I’m buying Severson’s breakout, I think he’ll have a great year. Not buying Gudas’ numbers, and his PIM will bounce back up there. I’d be surprised to see 25 points

      • Striker 2016-11-04 at 12:11

        Agreed. Got lucky getting Severson in 1 of my fantasy leagues.

  6. Mike Page 2016-11-04 at 15:07

    Due to having no starters in my pool I picked up Condon and had him playing on my roster knowing he was going to be playing the lowly Canucks and I kept Hoffman off the bench to get me the only points in the game.

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