Ramblings: Pickard vs. Varlamov and more thoughts from around the league (Nov 7)

Dobber

2016-11-07

My thoughts on the Pickard vs. Varlamov situation. And much more …

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It’s getting close to that time when Calvin Pickard begins cannibalizing starts from Semyon Varlamov. We’re always looking for a goalie to help our fantasy team because they’re only a small number of decent players who play that position and can actually help – and most of them get scooped up at the draft. So the two or three goaltenders who crop up during the season and suddenly have value, well, they’re gold. Pickard is coming off a shutout Saturday, whereas Varlamov gave up five goals on Sunday and got the hook (Pickard came in and stopped the three shots he faced). For Varlamov, it marks five consecutive losses and three straight games of giving up four or five goals. He’s given up five goals on four different occasions this year.

What’s more, if you look at Varlamov’s numbers (hint: click his name and scroll down to the side-by-side chart), he has a 0.962 SV% on the 133 shots that he’s faced from 31+ feet away. That means that his overall 0.881 SV% is getting a huge boost from all the long-range ‘fluff’ shots.

Varlamov has three years left in his contract, and he’s getting paid a crap load. So he’ll keep getting thrown out there and I think he eventually gets somewhat back on track (the way Kari Lehtonen and Ondrej Pavelec occasionally got on track over the years). For this year and next, I can see Pickard being the better goaltender – but it will frustrate fantasy owners because he won’t get enough starts (35? Maybe?). Until the last year of Varlamov’s contract when the Avs Pavelec him down to the minors. Or maybe they can lose him to expansion (I doubt Las Vegas would take him if his play continues to be mediocre at best, not at that contract).

So that’s the lowdown on Pickard’s future. Barring a Varlamov injury. You’ll see Pickard do well, steal some starts, but hockey politics (in this case a giant contract) will hold him back for a couple of years.

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Tough news on Sunday as it was reported that former NHLer Marek Svatos has passed away. He was only 34 and had apparently died from a medical condition, though a cause of death wasn’t officially announced. He left behind a wife and two kids. Just far too soon.

Svatos had 172 points in 344 career NHL games with Colorado, but he’s well known in the fantasy hockey community because he teased us with his potential. He started off with 32 goals and 50 points in 61 games as a rookie, but it turns out that it was his best season. Two years later he had 26 goals and 37 points, again hinting at what he could do. But he was unable to get going after that, even after short stints with Nashville and Ottawa.

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Another struggling goalie, Jake Allen, actually put it all together on Sunday. Though he only faced 23 shots, he allowed just one goal. In the Ken Hitchcock system, Allen has yet to face 28 shots in a game (10 games).

Kevin Shattenkirk had three assists and was plus-4 in the game. He always has hot starts that generally go on for 40 games. His second half always slides quite a bit. Injuries also play a role with him. But for now enjoy the ride, it should continue for another month or two.

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The Oilers finally gave somebody else a start. Man, they really are gonna play Cam Talbot as much as possible. If he stays healthy I think he gets 70 starts! But it was Jonas Gustavsson who played on Sunday and stopped 22 of 23 for the win.

And hey, Oscar Klefbom picked up his first point on the power play. It took him nearly 30 minutes of PPTOI.

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Jimmy Howard continued his strong play. He took the loss, but stopped 26 of 28. He has a 1.12 GAA and 0.965 SV%. Petr Mrazek is still Detroit’s starter, but has 3.18 and 0.904 numbers so I wouldn’t feel too comfortable owning him.

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Mike Cammalleri hasn’t reached 51 points since 2009 and he kicked off this year with zero goals and three points in 10 games. I think we all know that he’s in decline, but his pace was still far too low. The market correction happened Sunday as he scored three times. Six points in 11 games is a better reflection of his expected pace. Here were New Jersey’s line combos last night:

#1 22.5% BENNETT,BEAU – CAMMALLERI,MIKE – JOSEFSON,JACOB

#2 19.8% HALL,TAYLOR – PARENTEAU,PA – ZAJAC,TRAVIS

#3 19.4% HENRIQUE,ADAM – PALMIERI,KYLE – ZACHA,PAVEL

#4 10.4% BOUCHER,REID – FIDDLER,VERNON – LAPPIN,NICK

Beau Bennett, The Forgotten One, has been struggling all season trying to click with Devante Smith-Pelly and Pavel Zacha. Getting a chance with Cammalleri seems to have worked. Don’t expect miracles, but it’s a start. Hell, just playing 10 games in a row without getting hurt is progress, no? His 5on5 SH% is 1.82, so his numbers are definitely due for a market correction.

Taylor Hall has just one assist in his last four games.

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Justin Faulk left the game late with an undisclosed injury. The Hurricanes didn’t update his status, but last year he missed 18 games with lower-body injuries. Let’s hope this isn’t a trend and he doesn’t join a certain club (that starts with a ‘B’).

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Prospect Gemel Smith had two goals last night and has three points in his last two games. He’s getting more ice time thanks to the Patrick Sharp injury, the Jason Spezza injury, and the Jiri Hudler…uh…illness. But Smith doesn’t have a lot of upside as his pedigree indicates that of a bottom sixer.

Speaking of Hudler’s illness, what the hell is it? Three weeks with this “illness”. Who gets six for three weeks other than teenagers with mono?

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As expected, Richard Panik has slowed considerably with just three points in his last seven games. He’s still getting PP time. There was line juggling like crazy on Sunday by the Blackhawks, but Panik is pretty much off the Toews line, which is concerning. I still like him for over 40 points, but how much over will very much depend on who he plays with. He’s not good enough to do it alone.

Tyler Motte was injured – lower body. He’s expected to miss “some games”, per Coach Q. And there’s your reason for all the line juggling…

Artem Anisimov has points in 11 straight games and leads the NHL in points with 17 in 13 contests. Who knew?

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Connor Hellebuyck got yanked after giving up four goals on 16 shots. I consider Hellebuyck a future stud goaltender and am quite surprised that he’s struggling this year. Ondrej Pavelec is 3-1-2, 3.15 and 0.915 in the AHL. I wonder if the Jets should swap the two goalies and give Hellebuyck a month in the AHL to get tons of actual and regain his confidence. It would mean entrusting the season on Pavelec. But if he could just keep the Jets within range heading into the New Year, then bring Hell Boy back to lead them down the stretch. Just thinking aloud, as I hate seeing a top prospect goaltender struggle.

Here is a save last night that shows that he’s still got it:

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Another day another Kevin Hayes point. Give him points in five straight now. He has 10 points in his last seven games and 12 in 13 on the season.

But while Hayes, JT Miller and Chris Kreider are surging, another player in his early-to-mid- 20s is struggling. Mika Zibanejad has just three points in his last eight games. In two of his last three games he saw less than 14 minutes of ice time – something that didn’t happen in the 10 games prior.

Okay, well, I have to call a spade a spade here. Brady Skjei is putting up fantasy-worthy numbers already. He has points in five straight games.

The Rangers didn’t get a single power play Sunday night.

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Cam Fowler has just one point in his last five games.

Ryan Kesler is on fire right now with points in four straight games (six points). Usually he’s a second-half player, so getting off to this kind of start bodes well for his full-season outlook.

Jonathan Bernier stopped 25 of 26 shots for his first win in an Anaheim uniform.

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14 Comments

  1. Michelle 2016-11-07 at 01:33

    Was hoping to hear something on the Rackell and Ritchie situation in Anaheim, I was surprised to see Rackell bumped down after having such a hot start.

  2. Jeremy Campbell 2016-11-07 at 08:57

    RIP Svatos. I’m 35 and can’t imagine leaving this world so soon, my condolences to his family and friends.

    What in the world is going on with Calgary??! Really suffering having Gaudreau (7th overall) and Gio on my pool team so far. Meanwhile a poolie in my pool got Kucherov 4th round and he’s killing it after also holding out. Cruel!

  3. Striker 2016-11-07 at 09:13

    Drafted Skjei late in both my fantasy leagues. You have to love a little luck although I had him as a lock to play a top 6 role this season & his playoff performance last season was a nice little peak at his potential. Gave me the ability to trade Severson in 1 of my leagues, a 9 keeper league for futures. 4th round pick; a little under value although I drafted Martinez with the 10th pick in the 4th round this year, but still several solid waiver wire candidates & I needed a drop. 24 man teams, dress 14, 3 skaters at each forward position, 4 D & a goalie, play 4 games a week head to head, 16 team league, protect 2 C’s, RW’s, LW’s, D & 1 G. I hadn’t dressed either yet although Skjei will draw in in 1 this week at the #4 slot due to the weird situation with Wideman in Calgary having been a healthy scratch for 6 games already & Stone still injured.

    Calgary has 4 PPG’s, Wideman 2 of them, #’s are solid across the board. The only saving grace is Wideman isn’t responsible for the mess that is Calgary. They have been brutal as expected. I had them 2nd last to Vancouver in the west in my preseason predictions. Expected Arizona to be better although letting Vermette go caused me pause. Great face off man a solid 2 way player.

    Did you see Gaudreau on Colgliano’s goal last night? Soft, he busted his ass to catch up then gave up on him after the 1st shot. Unfortunately Cogliano didn’t give up & scored on his own rebound. That explains his minus 11. How has Brodie not been benched? He’s been beyond brutal.

  4. Chris 2016-11-07 at 09:42

    Should we be concerned about Wheeler? He’s not found the net in 10 games, is onto the 2nd line now, and is seeing a dip in TOI. He is still a fixture on the PP, and contributes some peripherals, but is looking less attractive by the day. Thinking of swapping out for Kesler, who is still available.
    Or do I bank on the old ‘reversion to the mean’ hypothesis and ride it out?
    League is H2H, G-A-PPP-GWG-Hts-Blk.

    • Dobber 2016-11-07 at 18:18

      Wheeler’s downside, buried in the lineup, is 65 points. His upside is what he did last year. As long as your expectations are in between, he’ll meet them.

      • Invictus350 2016-11-08 at 12:24

        But with Laine and his awesome shot the PP runs more thru him now.. I’m really skeptical Wheeler will hit anything over 65

  5. slyone7107 2016-11-07 at 09:46

    Hey Dobber, any idea why Hornqvist only played 10 minutes last game? Who would you start this week? Hornqvist or Mackinnon? Streit 3 games vs. Chara 5 games? Points only.

  6. Jonathan Coretti 2016-11-07 at 10:14

    I think we should be a little concerned about Wheeler… to be honest I think the addition of Laine really hurts Wheeler… especially because Scheifele seems to be attached to his hip now. So Wheeler is stuck with weaker linemates and on the PP everything is funneled to Laine (due to his sick shot) and Wheeler sees less opportunities to score. I’m surprised there has been no talks of Wheeler considering he is a fantasy stud and the Ehlers-Sheifele-Laine line seems concrete atm.

    I don’t know if shopping him is the best idea, however, 10 games without a goal is concerning… I would ride it out a bit more but I think Wheeler is going to drop off a lot this season unless he gets paired up with Scheifele again or Little comes to save the day… or Laine gets hurt as weird as that sounds..

    • Juice 2016-11-07 at 13:33

      Thanks for mentioning this. As a guy who has been heavily invested in Wheeler over the past few seasons I’ve been wondering the same thing. People predicted some regression for Wheeler after his breakout season last year but what’s going on right now, I would agree with you is situational.

    • Striker 2016-11-07 at 14:25

      Winnipeg lost Little in game 1, since then a ton of NHL regulars have been shelved to injury. You can’t judge anything based on today’s line combinations in Winnipeg. Wheeler was due for some regression but he logs huge minutes in all situations. He will be fine.

  7. Seguin Genesis 2016-11-07 at 17:11

    Am I crazy to consider dropping Mason for Pickard? Mason’s been feeling like a waste of a roster space so far this season. – pts only league

    • Dobber 2016-11-07 at 18:17

      That’s bold, but it could work out. I’d consider it, especially if it’s a daily league

  8. drog 2016-11-07 at 21:38

    I’m in a one year league and have Allen & Murray as my #1-2 starters with Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy & Condon on my roster as well. Would you drop any of the last three to pick up Pickard? Goalie categories are: W, GAA, SV% and SO.

    Thanks

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