Ramblings: Islanders Hitting Rock Bottom (Nov 15)

steve laidlaw

2016-11-15

Ramblings: Islanders hitting rock bottom, Lightning PP clicking, injury updates and more.

Oh my goodness the Islanders are bad. They are so so bad. There was one game on last night and there was no chance I was watching it with the Islanders playing. I have sworn off them. Not even John Tavares is enough to lure me in. I refuse.

Of course, this is where we go back seat GM and back seat coach and question the lineup. Why didn’t they keep Kyle Okposo? Why did they waive PA Parenteau? How come Mathew Barzal didn’t stick? Why can’t they make better use of Anthony Beauvillier? Where’s Josh Ho Sang? Couldn’t he make a difference? I have no answers to these questions but I do know we are reaching the point where the GM starts looking for a scape goat. Things have to get unsustainably bad for a coach to get fired. We are getting there.

This certainly sounds like rock bottom.

Maybe they start to turn around before Jack Capuano pays the price. Perhaps Jaroslav Halak goes on one of his crazy runs of excellence. Or Andrew Ladd starts getting a few bounces. It’s not like the roster is historically bad. They aren’t like the obviously tanking Sabres of a few seasons ago. Run of the mill bad teams generally float around .500 over the long haul, or at least around the artificially created .500 once the overtime/shootout loss is factored in.

For what it’s worth Capuano is taking some of the heat:

Ladd appears to have worked his way back onto the top line, replacing Josh Bailey. Perhaps he will stick this time. Hard to find any positives here.

On the plus side, this is the last time the Islanders will face the Lightning, much to the chagrin of Nikita Kucherov:

 

Fantasy revelation Dennis Seidenberg was placed on injured reserve yesterday:

Seidenberg doesn’t have much fantasy value over the long term. He was putting together an interesting profile for those in leagues counting hits and blocked shots. He was doing his best impersonation of Alec Martinez. Hopefully this injury doesn’t derail that. Simple regression was likely to do the damage if that puck to the face hadn’t.

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Nothing like an Andrei Vasilevskiy with a 34-save shutout to throw Ben Bishop owners into a tizzy. The two most frequent questions I get are what to do with Bishop and Marc-Andre Fleury. I get these questions so frequently that I wrote a column about it. That came out a week ago and I am still getting these questions.

Bishop is still #1. He will go tonight against the Red Wings, with a good shot at a win.

Ultimately, if you only have one half of these tandems, it’s on you because the party line since this summer was that while Bishop and Fleury are #1, there will be enough of a split for Vasilevskiy and Matt Murray to have value. The smart play was always to lock down both halves of these tandems. Much harder to do that now that the young whipper snappers are playing well.

In any case, if you have only one of the two you can overpay to link the tandem or you can wait for the pendulum to swing back. It usually does. Both Vasilevskiy and Murray are legit talents but goalie performances balance out over time. We haven’t seen Murray have a hiccup in his NHL career. Can we maybe wait for him to have a hiccup before crowning him?

Please, no panic drops, no panic trades.

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The Todd Richards experiment appears to be working for the Lightning power play. They currently rank fourth in efficiency at 25.4%. Sure, the Lightning went 0/5 with the man advantage last night, but that just makes their ranking more impressive.  

Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov have put up three power-play goals and nine power-play points apiece. That they aren’t even sharing the ice on the power play is bananas. The Lightning are destroying teams with two units and it might lead to a renaissance season for Stamkos and the superstar breakout we all hoped for Kucherov. Easy to get hyped up when everything is rolling but this is what we all kind of expected from these guys. I mean, Stamkos’ 5on5 on-ice shooting percentage is pretty average at 9.35% and his spike in assists is mostly of the primary variety so he isn’t benefitting from crazy luck or generous scorers.

Kucherov’s underlying numbers appear less sustainable but he’s also built his early career on having an on-ice shooting percentage well above the league average. In other words, he’s a genuine star.

It’s in my nature to temper expectations but I am having a hard time doing so here. Stamkos had two of his three 90-point seasons in years where he put up over 35 PPP. I don’t know if he’s seeing enough PP time to get there but could an 85-point season with 30 PPP be within reach? I could see it.

For Kucherov, I don’t see why an 80-point breakout couldn’t happen. We all know John Cooper is going to split these two up at some point. No coach keeps a line together all season. Let’s just hope they spend more time together than apart.

In other news, I took a flyer on Ondrej Palat knowing that the Lightning had this bonus game tonight. He flopped so it’s back to the waiver wire! I’ll be looking at options off the Flames and Capitals. They are the two teams skating on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday this week. Huge off-night advantage to get some bonus skaters into the lineup this week.

 

Stralman sat out last night and it sounds as though he’ll miss another couple of games. Nikita Nesterov has snagged his PP time but I am not recommending a waiver claim.

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It sounds like Ryan O’Reilly might be able to play for the Sabres tonight. They are going to get thrashed by a pissed off Blues team if he doesn’t. I am growing concerned with O’Reilly’s situation. He keeps aggravating this injury, one that dates back to the World Cup. I’d rather they just sit him for a couple of weeks to heal properly than ride out this on-again/off-again situation.

Of course, this assumes that a couple of weeks off would be enough to heal the issue. He might need surgery or extensive time off. This could, in fact, be the only measure that allows him to play for the next few months.

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We were warned following Kopitar’s initial injury that getting firm information on his status would be difficult. Sure enough, we still know nothing beyond that he will miss some time.

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With Michal Neuvirth on the shelf for 4-6 weeks it is an opportunity for Steve Mason to run with the starting gig. He played well in relief of Neuvirth on Saturday. I don’t trust him yet. Long term, I still believe but short term, I’d rather not. On the plus side, the Flyers get the punchless Senators tonight. Something is going to have to give. Either Mason puts up a wall for once or the Sens get their scoring going. I kind of hope it’s the latter.

Mason isn’t out of the woods with Neuvirth injured. The Flyers called up Anthony Stolarz, who is putting up some impressive numbers at the AHL level with a 0.927 Sv%. Stolarz has gotten better every year and currently ranks 70th on Dobber’s top 100 goalies list. Read more about Stolarz here.

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This Faulk injury is growing more positive by the day. Crazy that just last week he was listed as “week-to-week”.

In other Hurricanes news, they have terminated the contract of Jakub Nakladal. He cleared waivers, so presumably no one wants him. Terminating his deal means he can sign a contract in another league. He probably heads back to Europe. I liked his game. He appeared to move the puck well. He’s also a right-handed shot in a league starved for righty defensemen. I am not shocked that he couldn’t catch on in Carolina as they are loaded with young defensemen. Just seems odd that no one is giving him a shot.

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Some Red Wings injury news:

Thomas Vanek’s return should help the Red Wings’ slumping power play. He appears to be the key to unlocking that group’s potential. I’m not overly optimistic about this, mind you, but he did well early on.

You shouldn’t be relying on Kronwall at this point but if you are, just know that these maintenance days are going to be frequent. Kronwall’s knee is cooked. The damage is apparently permanent so the only thing that can be done is frequent maintenance.

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In positive injury news, Zach Parise should return tonight:

I wonder where Parise slots into the lineup. The new top line of Nino Niederreiter – Eric Staal – Charlie Coyle is rolling right now. I presume Parise will bump Niederreiter down to the third line because Niederreiter has been effective in that role.

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Kyle Connor has been placed on IR. He wasn’t really doing much for fantasy owners but this is yet another injury for the Jets to deal with up front. Their list of forward injuries is staggering.

Marko Dano skated on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine. This could conceivably continue given the Connor injury. That or perhaps Dano skates with Nic Petan and Blake Wheeler. Dano scored, so presumably he has a top-six spot for the time being.

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Bettman has to lie but it’s obvious we are headed to another lockout. That last three collective bargaining agreements have only been agreed to after a lockout. It’s a foolproof way for ownership to gain leverage in negotiation. Sure, the players could agree to all the claw backs that the owners ask for and we could avoid a lockout but that would be foolish on their part. You know it, the players know it, the agents know it, the owners know it and Bettman knows it – we will have a lockout in 2020.

My only question is how much of the season it will cost us. I don’t sense that things are contentious enough to blow up an entire season.

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Check out my latest column for Sportsnet.

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I thoroughly enjoyed Nick Alberga’s Fantasy Fix podcast this week, featuring a favourite of mine, Zach Werenski!!!

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

12 Comments

  1. Striker 2016-11-15 at 07:12

    How Capuano has survived this long in NYI is staggering & I’m talking years not months, he needed to be fired years ago. Go look at TOI/GP in NYI on NHL.com. Players that can’t generate significant offense if their lives depended on it are in the top 6 except for Tavares & Nelson. Bailey sits #2, Clutterbuck #4, Chimera & Kulemin 6, 7? The players with even a hint of offensive ability Strome, Lee, Beauvillier & to a lesser extent Prince are wallowing down in the 10, 11 12 spots.

    Giving Bailey & Clutterbuck top line minutes & PP time makes them 3rd line scores by point production with out it the generate almost nothing.

    Snow doesn’t go unscathed either. He has a solid draft record but then makes these terrible player personal decisions that make no sense. Swaps Ladd for Okposo, Signs Parenteau then waives him. Allows Capunao to destroy the players he’s supposed to be developing.

    Fire Capuano. Hire Ralph Krueger. Hire a new President of Hockey operations Ala Yzerman or Shanahan type, & let him decide who gets to stay or go moving forward including Garth Snow.

    • kjans 2016-11-15 at 09:35

      Snow’s draft record isn’t so great. Many swings and misses on top 5 picks including drafting Nino and trading him for Clutterbuck, drafting Reinhart ahead of Forsberg, Reilly, Trouba, & Lindholm and drafting Dal Colle ahead of Ehlers and Nylander. It also looks like Strome (another top 5 pick) is on his way out the door

      • Striker 2016-11-15 at 10:07

        Nino is a great hockey player & that trade has worked well for both teams. Nino just doesn’t see huge TOI/GP or great PP TOI/GP but his PP time has started coming under Beaudreau.

        NYI by any & all prospect websities, publications or prognosticators, broadcasters, journalists that specialize in such has NYI as 1 of the best group of young prospects in the NHL.

        You could make that argument for any teams that passed on those players or any team in any given year doing so. The advantage of hindsight. I assume you like I even questioned NYI’s or your favorite teams sections over a player you wished they had chosen & if like me are probably right more times than wrong.

        • kjans 2016-11-15 at 10:24

          I guess you can say hindsight if it was one draft but Snow has had so many kicks at the can ( five top 5 picks) and the only impact player the Isles have drafted is Tavares. Why do so many of their first round picks turn out to be mediocre?
          Nino wasn’t a bad pick but still he turned a top 5 pick into a 3rd/4th line player (Clutterbuck) that he probably could have had for a 2nd or 3rd round pick ( as suggested by most media outlets days prior to that trade)
          Reinhart was an awful pick and set the Isles back many years. Taking a slow footed stay at home D that early in the draft is never a good idea. Looks like there is chance he may never develop into a regular NHL d-man. There are so many impact players from that draft that Isles missed on
          As far as Dal Colle , it wasn’t off the board or a terrible pick but once again the players taken immediately after (Ehlers, Nylander) look to be much better players.
          The writing on is on the wall that Strome is on the way out and likely to be traded. How many GM’s trade three top 5 picks in the span of 5 years?

          • Striker 2016-11-15 at 11:08

            I’m not certain we can determine who or what Niederreiter is yet. Just turned 24 in September & although he’s played 321 NHL regular season games he’s just never been given an opportunity to be anything more than you claim him to be. Yet as a 3rd line winger barely seeing PP time he has generated better production or at least the same production as say a player like Abdelkader who gets 1st line icetime & PP time? I say better as he’s done so with less of both.

            Reinhart was a swing & a miss but turned that into the 16th, Barzal & 33rd picks moved to TB for the 28th pick, Beauvilier, & Florida’s 3rd round pick in 2015. Now Edmonton’s bust to lament.

            At point of trade Neiderreiter was discontent & had shown little nor been given any real opportunity like Strome or any other prospect really under Capunao’s charge. No way Clutterbuck is moving for a 2nd or 3rd today.

            If you have followed my posts you will know I think R. Strome has been 1 of the most mishandled prospects in the NHL in the last decade. Snow & specifically Capunao have almost destroyed this player.

            I hear what your saying & don’t specifically disagree with you just always try to look at the big picture. I think Snow might be better served as director of scouting, a new President brought in & a new GM & management team put in place.

          • kjans 2016-11-15 at 14:09

            Agree to disagree I guess. Tavares is in his 8th season and Snow has yet to draft another impact player to play alongside/ take the pressure off of him despite having many early 1st round picks
            I am not a big fan of the “If only the Isles had stunk enough to get a top 3 pick instead of top 5” argument.
            Prospects are nice to point at but it is hard to get excited about Barzal, Dal Colle, Ho Sang, etc when it seems like most of Snow’s top picks turn out to be mediocre players
            Best move for Isles is for them to clean house from top to bottom ( including all of Snow’s buddies that he hired from U of Maine- How does this not get more attention?) and bring in fresh faces for GM and Coach. If they want to name an interim GM and coach for now that is fine (since the season is probably beyond saving at this point) and conduct a more thorough search in the offseason

          • Striker 2016-11-15 at 11:31

            I tried running comparisons. There isn’t a ton of comparable teams with so many picks just outside the cream spots. Picking 1st, 2nd & 3rd in any given year can be significantly different than picking even 4th or 5th. The drop off from generational talent to a player only being nominally better than the next 10 to 15 players is subjective.

            Then you have the dynamic that most players take 4 to 6 years to become NHL regulars from their draft season especially if not going to a weak team so we have no way yet to grade several of Snow’s picks & won’t for many more years.

            All I know is NYI is considered to have 1 of the best stables of young players in the NHL. Of the current forward group only Ladd, Chimera, Clutterbuck & Prince weren’t drafted by NYI. The D is much different. Leddy & Boychuk were acquired from cap strapped teams brilliant moves by Snow, Hickey off waivers but Hamonic, De Hann, Pulock, Pelech & Mayfield were all drafted by NYI.

  2. Striker 2016-11-15 at 07:15

    I watched that game last night & not my 1st time this year watching NYI play. Poor Halak. I missed the 1st goal but Halak can’t be blamed on any of the other 3. Turn overs & terrible coverage coupled with great puck movement. No hope for Halak.

    This team is a complete cluster f—!

  3. Mathieu 2016-11-15 at 08:30

    Laine-Scheifele-Ehlers collectively racked 29 points in 5 games and then Paul Maurice breaks up that line to slot Dano in there? Why do they always have to mess with what’s perfectly fine?

    • Striker 2016-11-15 at 08:43

      It’s called injuries primarily. Winnipeg has been devastated at forward with injuries & with Clifford taking out Connor; now out injured as well, Winnipeg needed to try & balance out their top 2 lines. Coaches don’t care about our fantasy pool issues they care about winning. Winnipeg did win. That line will be resurrected when the injured players start returning.

      Dano, Copp, Connor; when everyone is finally healthy, Howden & 1 other player will all be heading to the AHL if & when Winnipeg gets Little, Armia, Stafford, Matthias & Perreault all back from injury. I assume when the roster forces a final decision on the 23rd roster player, Burmistrov is being traded if even possible or waived. Failing that Petan’s heading back to the AHL as well. He should be a full time NHL player now. His skills coupled with solid face off abilities should see him playing LW with Connor being the casualty. Connor’s simply not ready.

  4. Chris 2016-11-15 at 12:21

    Guys,
    I need a hand. Picked up Wennberg last week and he’s been great but was just offered Monahan for him. What do you think?
    Thanks

    • Sheldon 2016-11-15 at 15:23

      Take Monahan & run, specially if you’re in a Keeper.

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