Real or Imagined? Eastern Conference Forwards – Part One (2016)

Eric Daoust

2016-12-20

Buy low on Patrice Bergeron and other stock reports from the Eastern Conference.

With more than one third of the NHL season complete we are starting to see a clearer picture of how things will ultimately play out. Still, there remain plenty of anomalies throughout the league that require further analysis. Specifically, some players are capable of producing more than their current rate which puts them in “buy low” territory while others are likely playing above their means putting them in “sell high” territory.

Many factors help determine a player’s buy/sell status. Various percentages and advanced stats help paint a more accurate picture of the situation. Also, historical production, ice time and opportunity also play a role. Today we will look at forwards for the first five teams in the Eastern Conference (Boston to Detroit) with the focus put primarily on points-only leagues.

 

BOSTON

Pos

GP

TOI

%PP

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

Status

MARCHAND,BRAD

C

33

18:45

46.3

9

18

27

5

2.9

9.4

HOLD

PASTRNAK,DAVID

R

27

17:21

43.2

19

7

26

5

3.4

20.7

SELL

KREJCI,DAVID

C

33

18:29

60.3

6

13

19

6

2.1

8.7

BUY

BACKES,DAVID

R

28

18:19

56.5

7

9

16

4

2.5

10.0

HOLD

SPOONER,RYAN

C

32

14:15

51.8

4

8

12

3

1.9

6.6

HOLD

MOORE,DOMINIC

C

33

13:01

6.6

7

4

11

0

1.1

19.3

WAIVE

SCHALLER,TIM

C

30

12:51

7.4

4

6

10

0

1.5

8.9

WAIVE

CZARNIK,AUSTIN

C

29

13:25

32.7

4

5

9

2

1.4

9.9

HOLD

BERGERON,PATRICE

C

30

19:04

59.6

4

5

9

2

3.4

3.9

BUY

NASH,RILEY

C

33

14:11

0.6

1

4

5

0

1.4

2.2

WAIVE

BELESKEY,MATT

L

24

15:05

38.3

2

3

5

2

1.8

4.6

WAIVE

HAYES,JIMMY

R

28

10:01

11

2

0

2

0

1.6

4.5

WAIVE

ACCIARI,NOEL

C

17

9:49

0.8

0

2

2

0

0.8

0.0

WAIVE

 

David Pastrnak

Pastrnak is obviously in the midst of a breakout season as evidenced by his increase in ice time and shot volume. Still, his current level is one that will be very difficult to sustain. The main issue is his shooting percentage which sits north of 20 percent. Puck luck has clearly played a role in this surge. If one of your opponents believes has arrived as one of the league’s top goal-scorers then by all means sell high. Otherwise stick with him – even with a drop in production moving forward he will still be an excellent winger to own.

David Krejci

The Bruins’ power play has not been as good as it when it overachieved in the first half last year. This limits the upside of a player like Krejci who had 18 points on the man-advantage. With that said, there is more to Krejci’s slow start as both his overall shooting percentage and on-ice five-on-five shooting percentages are currently very low. Look for him to see an uptick in the coming months and finish somewhere between 50 and 60 points.

Patrice Bergeron

The most obvious buy-low candidate featured today, Bergeron is due for a major increase in production in the near future. Of course, last year’s 68-point effort is unlikely to be challenged this time due to the Bruins’ lack of potency on the power play. However, given his top-line minutes and frequency of centering both Pastrnak and Brad Marchand this cold start is unsustainably bad. You should be sending in an offer in all of your leagues.

 

BUFFALO

Pos

GP

TOI

%PP

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

Status

OKPOSO,KYLE

R

29

19:28

65

9

13

22

12

2.7

11.5

HOLD

O'REILLY,RYAN

C

24

21:44

64.3

7

10

17

9

3.3

8.8

HOLD

REINHART,SAM

C

30

17:18

62.6

6

9

15

6

2.2

9.1

BUY

MOULSON,MATT

L

30

13:38

53.4

8

5

13

10

2.0

13.3

HOLD

GIONTA,BRIAN

R

30

17:04

35.1

7

6

13

1

2.1

11.1

HOLD

LARSSON,JOHAN

L

30

17:22

8.2

5

5

10

1

1.4

11.9

WAIVE

KANE,EVANDER

L

19

18:08

32.1

5

5

10

4

2.7

9.7

BUY

FOLIGNO,MARCUS

L

30

15:48

1.8

4

5

9

0

1.4

9.5

WAIVE

EICHEL,JACK

C

9

19:02

64.1

5

3

8

4

3.4

16.3

HOLD

GIRGENSONS,ZEMGUS

C

30

11:40

1.8

2

3

5

0

1.6

4.2

WAIVE

GRANT,DEREK

C

26

10:46

9.7

0

3

3

0

0.9

0.0

WAIVE

ENNIS,TYLER

C

12

13:44

38.4

1

1

2

0

2.4

3.5

HOLD

CARRIER,WILLIAM

L

20

9:26

0

1

1

2

0

1.4

3.6

WAIVE

BAPTISTE,NICHOLAS

R

12

8:42

9.7

2

0

2

0

1.0

16.7

WAIVE

DESLAURIERS,NICOLAS

L

11

8:30

1.7

0

0

0

0

0.5

0.0

WAIVE

 

Sam Reinhart

Reinhart’s production is roughly on-par with last year’s numbers but more was expected of him in his second full NHL campaign. His shooting percentage is low and he has been unlucky at five-on-five so there is room for improvement in the coming weeks. One factor that might help on the trade front is the abundance of big names in Buffalo perhaps overshadowing the former second-overall pick. Reinhart’s owner in your league might not fully embrace his immense talent.

Evander Kane

After years of injuries and disappointment Kane appears to have found his groove, at least for now. The risk remains as high as ever but he is getting top-line minutes and his high volume of shots is finally translating into goals. There is still plenty of dislike for Kane among hockey fans which you can use to your advantage on the trade front. Make sure to keep the price you pay on the low side as Kane could easily turn out to be a dud.

 

CAROLINA

Pos

GP

TOI

%PP

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

Status

SKINNER,JEFF

C

31

17:45

49.9

12

14

26

11

3.6

10.8

HOLD

RASK,VICTOR

C

32

18:14

47.2

10

15

25

6

2.3

13.6

HOLD

AHO,SEBASTIAN

R

32

15:26

39.8

5

11

16

3

2.2

7.1

HOLD

TERAVAINEN,TEUVO

L

32

15:40

46.2

8

7

15

6

1.7

14.7

HOLD

STEMPNIAK,LEE

R

32

15:35

43.1

6

9

15

4

1.4

13.4

HOLD

RYAN,DEREK

C

19

12:40

52

4

8

12

6

0.8

26.3

HOLD

STAAL,JORDAN

C

25

17:41

44.6

6

5

11

2

1.9

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12.6

BUY

LINDHOLM,ELIAS

C

27

17:27

44.9

2

7

9

2

1.8

4.1

BUY

STALBERG,VIKTOR

L

31

11:57

1.6

7

2

9

0

1.5

15.1

WAIVE

NORDSTROM,JOAKIM

C

32

13:10

1.7

3

4

7

0

1.3

7.2

WAIVE

NESTRASIL,ANDREJ

C

17

10:23

14

1

4

5

0

1.5

3.9

WAIVE

MCCLEMENT,JAY

C

32

11:28

2.7

1

2

3

0

0.6

5.2

WAIVE

MCGINN,BROCK

L

16

9:51

0.6

1

2

3

0

0.8

7.8

WAIVE

DI GIUSEPPE,PHILLIP

L

18

12:00

4.2

1

1

2

0

1.6

3.5

WAIVE

 

Jordan Staal

To date Staal has suffered offensively while many of his younger teammates have developed some great chemistry. However, he should not be forgotten because he still logs second-line minutes and sees plenty of time on the power play. Historically, he has been over 0.5 points per game most years which is well above his current rate. At this point Staal might be available on the wire in your league. He is worth stashing on your bench if your options are limited.

Elias Lindholm

Lindholm is a great buy-low option right now because his numbers thus far are so unappealing, highlighted by just two goals. His numbers show he is not nearly this bad and has been victim of terrible puck luck so there is definitely room for improvement. He will not set the world on fire offensively but he has shown in the past he can flirt with 0.5 points per game. Keep an eye on him as he could be a valuable depth scorer for you down the stretch when he finally turns things around.

 

COLUMBUS

Pos

GP

TOI

%PP

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

Status

ATKINSON,CAM

R

29

18:00

59.4

12

19

31

15

2.9

14.3

SELL

WENNBERG,ALEXANDER

C

29

18:03

60.2

6

20

26

13

1.1

18.8

SELL

SAAD,BRANDON

L

29

17:18

36.8

11

14

25

1

2.7

14.0

HOLD

GAGNER,SAM

C

28

13:35

58.1

13

10

23

11

2.6

17.9

SELL

FOLIGNO,NICK

L

27

18:28

63.2

10

13

23

11

2.2

16.8

HOLD

HARTNELL,SCOTT

L

29

12:39

32.5

5

12

17

2

1.4

12.3

HOLD

ANDERSON,JOSH

R

29

12:11

1.3

8

4

12

0

1.6

17.2

WAIVE

KARLSSON,WILLIAM

C

29

14:17

1.9

4

7

11

0

1.6

8.6

WAIVE

DUBINSKY,BRANDON

C

27

17:42

33.9

3

7

10

3

1.3

8.5

HOLD

JENNER,BOONE

C

29

14:56

34.6

5

4

9

1

2.4

7.2

BUY

SEDLAK,LUKAS

C

27

9:25

0.6

2

5

7

0

0.8

9.3

WAIVE

CALVERT,MATTHEW

L

24

14:36

4.1

4

2

6

0

1.5

11.1

WAIVE

BJORKSTRAND,OLIVER

R

5

12:17

57.9

0

1

1

0

1.0

0.0

WAIVE

 

Cam Atkinson

Like Boston last year, the Blue Jackets came out of nowhere to own the league’s top power play unit early in the season. Atkinson leads the way with 15 points which puts him in danger of a setback when things eventually cool down. His shooting percentage is also very high relative to his career numbers as he is usually around 10 percent. This will end up being a breakout year for Atkinson but producing among the league’s best is highly unlikely to last.

Alexander Wennberg

Wennberg is also enjoying a breakout year but like Atkinson there are signs pointing to an upcoming decline in production. He does not shoot a lot which severely limits his goal-scoring potential. In fact, to date he has scored on nearly 19 percent of his shots, a rate unlikely to continue. He has also relied heavily on the power play for production which will hurt his overall number when the team comes back down to earth.

Sam Gagner

At this point with Gagner you have to either sell or ride it out while the magic lasts. He is getting third-line minutes but is above 0.8 points per game due to having a key role on the dangerous power play. With that said, he does have a good history putting up points in past years so his good play this fall is not entirely unheard of. He simply is not on the ice enough to keep up this play over the long haul.

Boone Jenner

Jenner has not been able to repeat last year’s 30-goal performance and finds himself in a tough spot playing a lesser role. His minutes at five-on-five and on the power play have been scaled back significantly as the team’s various hot starters have obviously been given priority. Keep an eye on Jenner’s minutes and on the health of the Blue Jackets up front. A couple injuries would make Jenner more important again and we know he can be dangerous when he is on his game.

 

DETROIT

Pos

GP

TOI

%PP

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

Status

ZETTERBERG,HENRIK

L

33

18:45

55.1

6

15

21

4

2.1

8.7

HOLD

VANEK,THOMAS

L

22

14:15

52.5

5

12

17

5

2.2

10.3

HOLD

NYQUIST,GUSTAV

C

33

16:14

51.9

4

13

17

2

2.0

6.1

BUY

NIELSEN,FRANS

C

33

16:55

44.3

7

10

17

7

1.9

11.2

HOLD

TATAR,TOMAS

C

33

16:46

48.6

7

7

14

1

2.1

10.1

BUY

LARKIN,DYLAN

C

33

16:15

43

10

2

12

3

2.9

10.4

HOLD

GLENDENING,LUKE

C

33

13:38

2.1

1

8

9

1

1.3

2.3

WAIVE

MANTHA,ANTHONY

R

18

15:32

40.9

4

5

9

2

2.0

11.1

HOLD

ABDELKADER,JUSTIN

L

22

16:26

37.7

4

4

8

2

1.6

11.4

HOLD

HELM,DARREN

C

17

15:14

12.7

4

3

7

2

1.6

14.7

WAIVE

SHEAHAN,RILEY

C

33

13:43

21.4

0

6

6

1

1.5

0.0

WAIVE

ATHANASIOU,ANDREAS

C

19

11:42

17.1

5

1

6

0

1.4

18.8

WAIVE

OTT,STEVE

C

29

9:42

0.9

2

1

3

0

0.8

8.6

WAIVE

MILLER,ANDREW

L

22

9:23

1.4

2

0

2

0

0.7

13.0

WAIVE

JURCO,TOMAS

R

10

8:44

0.9

0

0

0

0

0.6

0.0

WAIVE

 

Gustav Nyquist

Nyquist’s points-per-game rate is equal to last year but he has gotten there despite scoring just four goals. Twice in his young career he has scored 27 or more goals which shows he has a history putting pucks in the net and should be able to turn things around soon. Another encouraging sign is his ice time, both at even strength and on the power play, which is up from last year and should give him additional help with his goal-scoring woes.

Tomas Tatar

Tatar’s buy-low window may have closed temporarily as he scored a hat-trick on December 17. However, his numbers this season remain ugly. There is room for improvement, especially in the goal-scoring department, as his shooting percentage is currently well below his career average of 12.7 percent. Like Nyquist, Tatar has also seen an increase in ice time this year as he is being put out on the ice more often than at any point in his career, both at even strength and on the power play.

*

Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.

6 Comments

  1. judy 2016-12-20 at 16:58

    Can I target Bergeron with Thornton?

    • Eric Daoust 2016-12-21 at 09:51

      Not in points-only but in most multi-cat leagues I’d go with Bergeron over Thornton.

  2. Corey 2016-12-21 at 15:03

    Would Zetterberg for Bergeron be a good buy low offer?

  3. Stevemoney 2016-12-22 at 15:29

    Using your logic, which makes sense to me, would you sell Ganger for Jenner? I had Jenner last year and he was obviously great, league counts hits as well. I picked up Ganger as a FA and the guy who dropped him is kicking himself and has Jenner.

  4. Jim Cunningham 2016-12-23 at 12:35

    If I had a nickel for every time I have added and dropped Nyquil and Tartar, I would be a rich man. “Buy” now? I think I’ve heard that before…

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