This week's Capped discusses the 2017 RFA defence crop, what challenges their negotiations/contracts may bring, and whether to buy or sell. 

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The 2017 restricted free agent (RFA) class includes a star-studded group of forwards, but there are fewer star defencemen to discuss. Defencemen have also seemingly had their salaries inflate a little faster than forwards, especially in the middle tier. It seems as though any second pair defenceman that can skate and chew gum at the same time now makes over $4 Million a season. Looking ahead at the contracts that some of these young players are due up for, it may be even more ideal to get out early from under these potentially expensive contracts.

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Shayne Gostisbehere (D)  –  Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit  –  $925,000

First off, I would just like to say that it took me way too long to be able to spell Gostisbehere’s name properly. Even writing this I had to double check that I had gotten it right. However, not only has his name been causing troubles, but his sophomore slump has been causing problems for both the Philadelphia Flyers and fantasy owners alike. Gostisbehere (AKA Ghost) was scratched last Saturday for the second time this season, and had an underwhelming return to the lineup, going minus two and recording no points. After breaking out last year with 46 points in 64 games, bigger things were expected from the talented Flyers rearguard.

Sami Vatanen and Torey Krug make decent comparables for Ghost in terms of style of play, talent level, and how pricy the next contract may be. Vatanen and Krug both make very close to $5 Million a season, which is a good benchmark expectation. If Ghost can get back on track (and he will), then $5 Million a season would be a bargain price. That would especially be true in leagues where the categories counted are points based. Ghost does lose some value in leagues that count hits, blocks and penalty minutes, but the value of a possible 60 points from a defenceman is too good to pass up.

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Dmitry Orlov (D)  –  Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit  –  $2,570,000

Dmitry Orlov was part of the 2016 RFA class as well, and managed to reach an agreement on a one-year deal with Washington less than a month before the beginning of this season. It was a good thing for the Washington Capitals that they got Orlov signed, as his play has been impressive thus far. Currently with 20 points, Orlov is on pace to surpass his career high by eight. On pace for 37 points, Orlov is quickly becoming a defenceman that should see 40 points for a few seasons in the right situation. For now though, his is only a great third option behind John Carlson and Matt Niskanen.

Due to the presence of Carlson and Niskanen, Orlov has not had the chance to show he can consistently run a power play unit. That really limits his value, and thus caps how much he is likely to make. Last summer, Orlov was asking less so for a larger contract and more so for a larger role on the team. He has definitely proved his worth and could be in line for one of those “skating and chewing gum” contracts (so $4 Million plus) over the next handful of years. This would be good contract for Orlov, but definitely not a bargain for fantasy purposes.

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Colton Parayko (D)  –  St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit  –  $858,750

Since January 10^th, Colton Parayko has both of his goals on the season, so just based off of that we know he has not had a lucky season. Entering Wednesday night with a 1.8% shooting percentage, Parayko has somehow still managed to build upon and surpass last season’s breakout production. Currently Parayko is just off of a 40-point pace, and is also looking to surpass the 200-shot threshold before the end of the season. The 200-shot plateau is a very valuable one, as only 59 players (nine of them defencemen) hit the mark last season. Moving forward, the future looks even brighter for Parayko because Kevin Shattenkirk (a fellow puck-moving defenceman for the St. Louis Blues) will likely be moving on either at the trade deadline this season, or by July first at the latest. When Parayko is opened up to run his own power play in addition to everything he does now, watch out!

Now with Shattenkirk likely on the move, his $4.25 Million dollar salary will be off the books as well. This should free up enough space for St. Louis to deal with the new contract for Parayko fairly smoothly. Now $4.25 Million per year may not be enough to get the deal done. A deal around $5 Million for the shorter term is very plausible, and even at that price he will be producing enough to be a valuable asset in most leagues. Even in leagues counting hits and blocks, where Parayko may not be as valuable as some. He’s a soft buy at this point.

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Justin Schultz (D)  –  Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit  –  $1,400,000

The easiest of the names to spell on this list, Schultz is finally showing the talent that scouts thought he had years ago. For one reason or another, he did not mesh with the Edmonton system; but now with Pittsburgh he is being put in a great situation to succeed. Especially with the recent injuries to Kris Letang, Schultz is running the lethal Pittsburgh Penguins power play. Past this season, with M. A. Fleury likely moving on, there should still be plenty of room to sign Schultz. Schultz will likely be looking for term more than anything, but it would still be surprising to see him any lower than $3.5 Million per year.

Schultz’s value moving forward will largely depend on his landing spot. If Pittsburgh keeps him around, then he should be able to continue his run from this season. However, seeing him signed away, or being traded is also a possibility. On a new team, if he ends up having to run things like he did in Edmonton, then he may get a little too exposed, and his production would stumble. His ideal situation would be somewhere that he could step in as a number two guy. Monitor this situation after the season when Schultz is primed for his new deal, and be ready to buy or sell depending on what city he ends up in.

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As always, thanks for reading, and comments are welcome. I would be interested to hear if there is any more insight into what you may think this year’s RFA defencemen will be looking for in their new contracts.

Find me on Twitter: @alexdmaclean