Welcome back, everyone! Well, that sure was a fun July 1^st free agency day, and by that, I mean June 30^th. Still, the dust has settled and it's time to break down some key moves that happened by players and organizations. This may be a little all over the place, but we have to cover all things free agency. It's for science. Of course, I'll give a little fantasy take as well, can't forget about those!

I had a conversation with someone that asked about spending in the offseason and if it correlates to team success, and there's two ways to look at it. You have your clubs like Vegas with not a ton of home-grown players that bring UFA's in and pay a FA sticker tax, and then you have those that will spend up to reach the salary cap floor. Last offseason the top spenders were Nashville, Seattle, Boston, Chicago, and New Jersey. That's one playoff team and one playoff win between those five, so "winning" July first doesn't always lead to success come October.

Mitch Marner signs an eight-Year, $96.00M ($12M AAV) deal with the Maple Leafs (June 30^th) – Traded to the Golden Knights for Nicolas Roy (July 1^st)  

Looks a little weird with it being listed that way, but that's the order in which things took place in the Mitch Marner saga. This might have been the worst kept secret in hockey, but a small part of me thought that Vegas would make smaller moves this offseason to then be able to make a big-time splash come next offseason. While a small part of me thought that would be the case, a large part of me now thinks that they knew that Alex Pietrangelo's situation prior to all this, and his situation would eventually lead to his $8.8M coming off their books, making the way for Marner's $12M salary to fall under the cap. It's Vegas. They work the salary cap better than anyone else and it's not even close.

Vegas might now have the best top nine forward grouping in the NHL, and for fantasy I don't think we need to spend a ton of time on Mitch Marner. Want to draft a winger that will provide you with close to 100 points? If that sounds appealing to you, Marner is a prime candidate.

For Vegas, they will have around $1.3M to spend on a final roster spot, with no retentions, no buyouts, and no dead cap hits. I told you; Vegas does this better than anyone else.

Vancouver Canucks

I must touch on this club because in one day they made me change my mind on their outlook, at minimum, seven times. Starting with a signing that sort of left me a little puzzled is signing Thatcher Demko to a three-year $25.5M deal ($8.5M AAV). This is not at all because of Demko, but this contract was last season hands down the most tradeable goaltending contract we had for a potential real asset. $5M with no no-trade or NMC, I'm shocked how he wasn't dealt last season at the deadline but behind closed doors, I'm not sure the offers made sense for the club to move him. Still, this is a buy-in for the Canucks as you, me, and everyone in Vancouver can't go through another season of Kevin Lankinen versus the world. It is important to note that this contract does not come into effect until next season, so there's still a chance here that a very moveable player and contract is dealt, to where a club would not have to risk losing the player in return as a rental.

For fantasy, it's Demko. You don't know, I don't know, the Canucks don't know. I rostered him two seasons ago and he was phenomenal, last year he was off my club before American Thanksgiving. It's a buy-low for sure, and if it works out, then you could potentially fill one of the hardest positions to roster in fantasy hockey.

The Canucks didn't stop there, Brock Boeser isn't leaving town (as I'm sure many of us thought) and signs a seven-year contract worth $7.25M AAV. Again, I don't love it, but I don't hate it? I rostered Boeser last season and outside of a couple fun fantasy nights in January, he had a down season compared to 2023-23. I would have been surprised if that number was closer to eight million per season and can live with him at that number if he's on my roster. For fantasy, I'll probably have him in my queue come draft night but he's not coming off the board early. I would have to be a case to where I'll be looking for depth in a deep pool of RW's.

For Vancouver as a whole, as I look up and down this roster and compare their numbers to those elsewhere in the league, there is some financial health here. With the Demko signing, they move into the top ten in goaltending spending but the way that they have allocated money for their forward and defensive groups is balanced, which in the past has not been the case for this club. I can see where maybe overall some of these players are slightly over what they would be otherwise market value, but with a rising cap I'm not going to fuss too much on a million overspend on a few players. Sure, there is the looming Quinn Hughes contract, but keep in mind, as of now they'll be close to seven million coming off the blueline by then, plus a two-million-dollar drop in the Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout.

Los Angeles Kings

I need to be hired by an NHL team. What on earth happened here, I'm speechless. This club for a moment in time with kazoos ringing out the National Anthem, looked like they might, and I mean might, take out the Edmonton Oilers in round one. Then we take a step back…

On the blue line, we now have Cody Ceci (31) for another four seasons at $4.5M and Brian Dumoulin (33) for four x $4.5M. At this point, why did nobody in the room just suggest overpaying Vladislav Gavrikov? That to me makes more sense. This is the same club that is now again going to rely on Drew Doughty at 35 years old to do all the heavy lifting here, and keep in mind, that is a Kings club that floated around trading Brandt Clarke…which I'm sure will come up again this season. This is a top-10 club in blueline spend, that may not be a top ten defense. Not great, Bob.

For the forward group this club added Corey Perry (40) on a one-year $2M deal, Joel Armia (32) at two-years for $2.5M and Andrei Kuzmenko (29) at one-year for $4.3. I'll loop in net too, Anton Forsberg (32) for two-years at $2.5M AAV and I promise you that Darcy Kuemper isn't going to have the season he did last year. My point isn't that I don't dislike any of the forward spend or in net in particular, but this club had $25 million dollars in cap space available, and this is the way that they go about spending it.

I had a chat with someone in my league a few weeks ago, and I mentioned how I believe that this upcoming season, we're going to see clubs tank like mad in order to get the chance to draft Gavin McKenna and Keaton Verhoff right behind him is also a nice player to have for the future. I know folks online say that Pittsburgh is the one team that may begin to fall off, but have we considered Los Angeles? Adrian Kempe is going to be a name that comes up at deadline and is extremely moveable without a no-trade clause in his current deal and trust me if you watched any of the Four Nations, this is a very underrated player making $5.5 per season. You have one more season of Anze Kopitar at $7M, with the rest of their contracts falling under modified no-trades (most around seven clubs). This is a sneaky spot here to fall back that I don't think a lot of folks are mentioning with contracts that are both moveable and with the right term, if they do decide to move assets.

Florida Panthers

Let's start with Mr. Conn Smythe himself, Sam Bennett who, shocker, signed the contract we all expected by both term (eight years) and AAV ($8M). I love Bennett's game, and although he is injury-prone, this is someone that I target in fantasy each and every season. I don't like to get too hung up on great playoff performances as we move closer to fantasy draft night (I drafted Lars Eller very early following the Caps Cup), but Bennett is a player that's going to provide plenty of hits/blocks and will get top six minutes throughout the majority of the season.

Brad Marchand for this club signed an extension that is going to take him into retirement, or slightly past it, for a six-year deal worth $5.25M AAV. I had a hunch that Marchand was going to sign with the highest bidder and if I'm Florida looking to keep him, then this deal blows me away every time sitting at the other side of the table. I thought maybe this would be a Tom Brady situation to where we go year-by-year, but seeing the term and AAV on paper would have me sign as well.

Aaron Ekblad signs an eight-year deal worth $6.1M per and that is a bargain if you consider what Columbus is paying Ivan Provorov. If he's healthy, he is an excellent fantasy player to have and someone who works so well with what this Panthers club does on defense.

I think it's safe to say that the Panthers like the group as 10 players on this roster are under contract until the 2029-2030 season. The question is with this club as it stands is that they are currently just over $3M on the cap. This could result in possibly two outcomes, the first is maybe there's an injury (Matthew Tkachuck, cough) that will be put onto LTIR, but I said that this could happen following their loss in the Cup Finals to Vegas, and it didn't come to fruition. The second would be a trade, and if I had to guess, it would be moving Evan Rodrigues as he makes $3M on his own, which would all but get Florida right under the cap (they would need to do a bit more shaving, but this is a start). It's a hard-kept secret knowing that you need to shed salary, but Florida is weighing their assets, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see some cap gymnastics that keep their forward spending high. This club (as it stands right now), will come into next season with more money in forwards than any other club.

Evan Bouchard signs a four-year, $42M ($10.5M AAV) deal with the Oilers

Am I surprised by the term? No, not really. AAV? Again…not so much. I think he may get more slander than he deserves for his defense at times, but the offense can't be overlooked. This is a great player to have in fantasy, and a very good one to be running your top power play night in and night out. This doesn't leave the Oilers with much wiggle room this season as they're now capped out, but if it was me, I probably wouldn't have signed Trent Frederic to an eight-year deal at close to $4M per season. Never change, Stan Bowman.

Sometimes for a player the age and contract term just align, as when Bouchard's deal is up, he'll be 29 years old, and I could see the salary cap being close to 20% higher than it is right now. I know you're thinking it as well as we talk about the Oilers and numbers…they're going to be able to work with Connor McDavid, trust me. This club will probably have nearly $45M to work with come next offseason. This is always going to be a team that's going to be right up against the salary cap ceiling, and I don't see that changing by the time Bouchard comes back to the negotiating table.

Matthew Knies signs a six-year, $46.M ($7.75M AAV) deal with the Maple Leafs

I saw plenty of rumors surrounding Matthew Knies and what this contract was going to look like and to be honest, the AAV doesn't shock me, but the term does. I really had it in my mind that this was going to be in the neighborhood of four years, but there's an extra two seasons on what I thought would be the offer. Hey, good for Kneis and good for the Leafs. Unless there is major regression in his game, I like the way he plays and promise that this is going to be the player that maybe goes two rounds too early in your draft. Last season I had him pegged for 59-points but as the season went on, I felt uneasy he would hit that mark, and that's just a consequence of power-play time. Still, with Toronto's injuries from time-to-time and his performance, Knies landed at 58-point and that's around where I'd have him for next season as well.

I know there were plenty of rumors about an offer sheet when it came to Knies and I want to address something that I've seen floated around that this would be the "summer of offer sheets" …I disagree. I think the only clubs that would be in position to offer sheet someone and lose a first-round pick are clubs like Carolina, Winnipeg, and Minnesota. It's a short list, but these are clubs that, unless something goes very wrong, will probably find themselves in a playoff spot in a year. This is because if I'm a club like Pittsburgh, Chicago, Buffalo, San Jose, why would I lose a first in a season where I can potentially get what could be a future superstar in the draft? Everyone is overlooking that aspect of this whole equation. I do think though, that if I'm a club like Calgary sitting on two first rounders and am just in that middle lane of clubs, that I'm at least having the conversation about offer sheeting someone. I'll say it again, but the race for the bottom of the standings this season is going to be one like we've not seen before. Trust me, come January this is going to be the case…plenty of bad contracts for picks, coming right up!

Noah Dobson signs an eight-year, $76.00M ($9.5 AAV) deal with the Islanders
Traded to the Canadiens for Emil Heineman, a 2025 1st round pick (#16), and a 2025 1st round pick (#17). All transactions took place on June 27^th.  

The Habs quietly may have one of the best blue lines in the NHL now, with the signing of Noah Dobson to a sign-and-trade eight-year deal. While I like this for both sides, I want to look at what this means for Montreal, particularly for fantasy. I've rostered Dobson two of the past three seasons but missed rostering him on for his 70-point season and while I'm not sure we see that performance from him again, this is still a defenseman that's probably going to average in the mid-60's as far as points are concerned. I would still draft him as in my league I have referred to him as my adopted son (I have no idea why, but we move on), but the one slight worry I have for point production is just how he fits in on the Habs' power play. I can see this club running a two-defense man advantage with both Dobson and Lane Hutson but then there's also the issue of where Mike Matheson fits into all this. Still, Dobson is a desirable player as I've come to find in a dynasty salary league that I recently joined. Seriously. It's non-stop trade offers. If you're looking to draft a Montreal defenseman this season, you can take your pick from three decent fantasy producers, and I'll throw Kaiden Guhle in there as well for all my DFS peps out there searching for the block bonus on a given night and need a $3,900 defenseman.

Mikael Granlund signs a three-year, $21.00M ($7M AAV) deal with the Ducks

Let's get to some other signings before we hit one more team, starting with Mikael Granlund. I rostered Granlund last season in fantasy, was excited when he got traded to Dallas, sort of let down when he immediately began skating on their depth lines, but then filled with joy once again when he was bumped up to skating on the Stars second line. I like rostering him in fantasy, but this is one of those cases where there's a big difference between good fantasy players and good NHLers. I'm not saying Granlund isn't a solid player, he is, but he brings next to nothing defensively for a line and while we might not care too much about that for fantasy, the Ducks are going to see this almost immediately.

What this came down to was that even though Dallas had traded for Granlund and probably wanted to keep the player that they acquired via trade, signing Mikko Rantanen for over $12M a season sort of clogs up your books. Hand up, I did not have the Ducks on my radar as a landing spot, but this is a peculiar club. They were 20 points better this season than they were last year, and I don't think it's gotten enough love for how much this team improved. Cap-wise I like where they are in the sense that they only have three current players on this roster under contract two seasons from now. That opens the doors for them to make some really great moves in-house, but also is going to give them plenty of flexibility to spend in the very near future. They still are currently not at the cap floor at $66M, so either they're going to make a Ben Bishop move like Buffalo did back a few seasons ago to get there, or sign players that are Arb eligible on their current roster to help them reach that point.

Carolina Hurricanes

I love when the smart teams do things. Here are some current contracts that the Hurricanes have remaining…

Nikolaj Ehlers six years x 8.5M AAV
Logan Stankoven eight x $6M AAV
Sebastian Aho seven years x $9.75M AAV
Seth Jarvis seven years x $7.4M AAV
Jaccob Slavin seven years x $6.4M AAV
K'Andre Miller eight years x $7.5M AAV
Andrei Svechnikov four years x $7.75M AAV

Best part? They still have close to $11 million in cap space after signing this group up.

For starters on their offseason, the K'Andre Miller trade works out for both sides. For Carolina, yes, you could argue that they now have a pretty crowded left side of their blue line with Miller, Slavin, and Alexander Nikishin slotting right behind them, but this is going to help solidify a penalty kill that was already best in the NHL, and at times last season that wasn't even close.

Ehlers is an interesting one because he didn't sign-and-trade, or sign for the max seven years as a UFA but signed on for six seasons. I'm always leery because of the ice time in Winnipeg, but this is an excellent two-way winger who is going to play right next to Sebastian Aho and likely across from Seth Jarvis or Logan Stankoven. I had Utah pegged for Ehlers with more clubs being able to come to the table for a below $10M a year player, but Carolina is going to be a perfect fit for him.

For Logan Stankoven I can't express how much I like this contract for him signing long term. The circumstances at which he came to Carolina were like nothing we've really seen with the Mikko Rantanen trade (I was in an Uber writing about it as it was happening), but Stankoven had some very impressive moments in playoffs and looks to be a player that those out there should keep an eye on for fantasy drafts.

All of these Hurricanes mentioned are fantasy draft-worthy and I ask if you'd rather have Mikko Rantanen for over $12M, or be able to really create something special like Carolina is doing. If you go back, the only club to not have a top-10 scorer during the season and win a Stanley Cup would be those Kings teams back in '12 and '14, and I think outside of some bad goaltending luck, this is where Carolina falls short of ultimately making a deep playoff run. They're going to have a top-3 defense in the NHL and might have a forward on the list above jump into the top-10 scorers at some point. This is a special group that could be ready to make a big jump forward with financial relief to help them along.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.