Ramblings: Zaitsev, Sid, Henrik, Rinne, Shipachyov and more (May 03)

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As you know (judging by the million comments in the Ramblings yesterday – touchy subject!), Sidney Crosby is out for Game 4 with a concussion. Given it’s Crosby and given that even a mild concussion costs at least two games, my guess is that Crosby is out for Games 5 and 6 as well. I can only hope that it won’t be something more serious. As many times as we’ve seen the replay, we can argue about intent or suspension all day long. But what we can probably agree on is that the jab to the head hit his helmet, and when it jarred him it wasn’t violent. Had he not had any prior concussions, my guess is that he would have been fine. It rattled his head, which is enough for a player with that kind of concussion history. So that takes Crosby out for this series, although if it goes to a Game 7 then I can see him getting back.

Conor Sheary is also out with a concussion. My guess is that, due to the ‘magic’ of playoff hockey, he’s back for Game 6 and only misses two. There’s Dr. Dobber’s best guess.

The main concern is the long-term impact. How many more concussions will Crosby put up with? He loves hockey, but he’s also a sensible person. He’s not going to keep playing if he takes another five concussions. So what’s the magic number – three more? Two? ONE? If the next one is serious enough it’s certainly possible. That’s food for thought.

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As for Sheary, he’s a small player as it is. Yes, this one was a fluke, but some players get hit by ‘fluke’ more than others – and with smaller players it’s more of a concern. I really want to see Sid and the Kids play next year at least 77 games each. But I fear Sheary only plays 60 to 65 and Crosby just 70.

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The Maple Leafs just made a strange move. The Shana-plan had been doing incredibly well, but committing yourself for seven years at $4.5 million per season on a defenseman who was unexpectedly decent is just begging to be regretted in two years. Nikita Zaitsev was average. We expected a depth defender with upside who needed time to adjust and what we got was an NHL-ready defenseman worthy of most good team’s No.4 slot. But it was just one year! Here is what I would do. I would offer him three years at $3.5 million per season, or one year at $4.5 million. I would not want my hands tied when the Big 3 kids come up for negotiation. I don’t care if I lose him (to the KHL, or otherwise) – that’s the price. Sign it or go. Management doesn’t take that stance enough in pro sports and that’s why we have lockouts.

Here are defensemen I would rather have:

Jacob Trouba (who signed for less – two years, $3 million per)

Matt Dumba (two years, $2.55 per)

Torey Krug, who makes more per season ($5.25) but only locked in for four seasons – and frankly I’d rather that than Zaitsev’s seven years.

I mean…Zaitsev’s contract is almost the same as Morgan Rielly’s! Really?

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The Rangers jumped to a 4-0 lead and this time they hung on. But you have to admit (unless you’re a Rangers fan) – you smiled a little when J-G Pageau scored late in the second because you thought “here we go again!” But that was all the Sens managed. Pageau, by the way, has scored the last four Ottawa goals.

With two points last night, Mats Zuccarello has five in his last four games. He had just one point in five games to start the postseason so he’s turning it on just in time.

I was just reviewing Henrik Lundqvist’s game logs and realized that he’s only had one weak game: Saturday’s game. And really, that was one weak period. He had a couple of easy ones in the first round where he wasn’t really challenged, but overall the Lundqvist of old – King Henrik – has made a return appearance. Nine games into the postseason and his SV% is 0.935. All the doubts that I had about the Rangers in March and early April revolved entirely around my belief that he had lost a step. He has lost a step, but like many greats before him he’s added three steps when it matters most.

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Zack Smith left the game with an upper-body injury courtesy of this hit from JT Miller:

I looked at the hit a hundred times and can’t pinpoint what exactly was hurt there. No update was given after the game.

Also injured was Bobby Ryan, this one was because of this Erik Karlsson shot here:

The puck hit him just above his left knee – I’m thinking a contusion of some severity.

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Joonas Korpisalo, who is a restricted free agent this summer, had his KHL rights traded. When things like this happen it means something. The KHL team feels they have a chance to convince him to cross the pond. Either they heard something through his agent, or they’re speculating. Columbus needs to sign him quickly if he’s eligible for the expansion draft. And  they need to sign one of he or Anton Forsberg or they won’t have a goalie exposed for expansion, which is not allowed.

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This year’s Russian big free agent – Vadim Shipachyov. He’s apparently fielding some big NHL offers (that are of the non-Montreal variety). He’s been a top scorer in that league for several years now, but he took it to another level in 2016-17 with 76 points in 50 games playing with Ilya Kovalchuk and Nikita Gusev (Tampa). He led the league with 50 assists. He’s 30 years old, so don’t go treating him like the next Panarin. He may just be a Dopita or a Cervenka. But definitely worth drafting in deep keepers.

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Lundqvist and Rinne – the two aging goaltenders with declining skill are bringing forth shades of their younger selves. Pekka Rinne sat at a 0.914 SV% in early March and ended up 0.918 with a strong final month. And now in the playoffs he’s been just as phenomenal as Lundqvist. This doesn’t sell me on future regular seasons, but it does convince me that I need to take veteran goaltenders with long track records a lot more seriously come playoff time.

Ryan Ellis now has points in seven consecutive games. Have you seen his beard? Between his breakout and Brent Burns, maybe we’ll see more defensemen grow them?

All that talent on the blue line for Nashville – Ellis, Subban, Josi…and yet none of them led the Preds in PP ice time. No, that was Mattias Ekholm, who saw 3:56 with the man advantage. This is a player who couldn’t buy much more than a sniff of PP time over the years and now he’s suddenly Johnny Quarterback.

Interesting to note that Jori Lehtera played just seven minutes last night, a low for the season by far. And he assisted on the only goal for the Blues. He has four points in six playoff games.

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The 2017-18 products are now up in the shop for pre-sale! The Fantasy Prospects Report is out on June 1 and the Fantasy Hockey Guide (my 12th) is out August 1. Some notes on this:

1. Tax is now charged based on your location. Meaning for the first time, US/International/Alberta readers save $$. Previously they had to pay 13% HST. Now every province pays their own tax rate, and International readers pay nothing for tax. First time ever – I have a new accountant who sees things differently. Great news for at least half of you!

2. USD$ currency is now at $1.37 Canadian. I can't help this, but what I'm able to do is – for pre-sale only – offer a 5% coupon for the Keeper League Fantasy Pack. Coupon Code for the KLFP is: win1

This is only for the month of May (i.e. only for pre-orders). But I feel this will take a bit of the sting out of the nasty exchange rate. I try to keep my pricing based on a $1.20 – $1.25 exchange rate and it's been higher than that for a couple of years now and I have no idea how this will bounce in the coming months.

3. If you've never tried out the Fantasy Hockey Geek Draft Kit, now is a great time to order it – just $5 via our DraftKings deal – basically if you buy my Guide (or one of the packs) and deposit $5 into DraftKings, they'll buy your Geek Draft Kit ($15.99 value)

Details for all of these things are in the shop here