Capped: Candidates to Rebound from Injury – Eastern Conference

Alexander MacLean

2017-05-04

Capped delves into some injuries from this past season in the Eastern conference, and potential buy windows.

 

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Even the most well-structured and talented teams can have a season derailed by an untimely injury (or seven). It’s the same in fantasy hockey. Injuries are a part of the game, and the most savvy GMs are the ones that can both avoid the injury-plagued players, as well as work around having star players out of the lineup. Sometimes though, when a player misses a significant chunk of time during a season, the owner sours on the player to the extent of valuing him lower than his worth. Knowing when to pounce on these opportunities can be just as beneficial as managing the injures in season.

 

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Aleksander Barkov (C) & Jonathan Huberdeau (LW) –  Florida Panthers

Cap Hit –  $5,900,000 each

Two unfortunate injuries to Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau earlier in the season thrust Jonathan Marchessault into the spotlight for Florida. By the time both young forwards were healthy, it was too late for Florida to save their season, but not too late to give us a taste of what we can expect next year. Huberdeau posted 26 points in 31 games, while Barkov managed 52 in his 62 games. This duo combined with the ageless Jaromir Jagr to form the top line in Florida for the last quarter of the season. The hope is for a healthy year next year where we see the best seasons yet out of the younger two.

 

Huberdeau, the 23-year-old left winger, suffered a freak laceration of his Achilles tendon in spring training last fall, causing him to miss the majority of the season. It didn’t take him long to get back up to game speed though, scoring seven points in his first four games. Over the three seasons before that, Huberdeau had missed between three and 13 games each season. Expecting him to miss a half-a-dozen games would be a safe bet, but in the games he plays, he should be able to break out for a 70-point pace.

 

Barkov on the other hand missed less time this past season, but over the last four seasons he has been averaging 19 games missed. Barkov has also been averaging only two shots per game, and scoring on an average of 14% of his shots. It is possible that a bit of regression hits, however a full season beside Huberdeau should also help buoy his numbers. If he can stay healthy then Barkov should also push the 70-point boundary for the first time in his career, but in this case, lower your expectations a touch to around 65 games and 60 points. The bottom line though for both Huberdeau and Barkov is that even with missing their few games every year, they should put up numbers to match, and maybe even exceed, their contracts.

 

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Brendan Gallagher (RW) & Alex Galchenyuk (C) –  Montréal Canadiens

Cap Hit – $3,750,000 (BG) & $2,800,000 (AG)

The pair of Canadiens each missed about a quarter of the season, and both underwhelmed statistically, regressing from much better seasons the last two years. These two have also both had injuries in two of the last four campaigns, lending some weight to the fact that they may be a bit of a risk moving forward. On the other hand, both stand to benefit from a full season next year under new head coach Claude Julien.

 

Taking a closer look into each though, there may be much less optimism than we think for Alex Galchenyuk next year. The last few seasons, Galchenyuk has been started in the offensive zone on over 60% of his shifts, in addition to producing very high shooting percentages. If either of those numbers come down, then we may see Galchenyuk’s numbers fall instead of climb from last season.

 

The $2.8-million shown above for Galchenyuk’s cap hit is also misleading, as that is what he made this past year, but he is a restricted free agent this summer. Based on his pedigree, he will be getting a decent raise (likely over a short term) on this season’s pay, whether he earned it or not. There have also been rumblings about Galchenyuk being shopped. A trade to a better situation could be exactly what Galchenyuk needs to get going. Bottom line is he doesn’t project as a good buy unless he gets traded.

 

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On the flip side, all signs point to Brendan Gallagher having a rebound season next year. Low personal and team shooting percentages along with the good showing in this year’s playoffs means we may finally see Gallagher’s breakout if he can stay healthy for a full season. His injuries could certainly be considered a fluke, so a healthy season isn’t out of the question. Gallagher still has four more years at this current salary too, so if he isn’t a bargain in your league yet, he will be soon.

 

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Jack Eichel (C) –  Buffalo Sabres

Cap Hit – $925,000

Jack Eichel shouldn’t be on this list, as there should be no way that you can trade for him at any kind of bargain rate, but crazy things happen in fantasy leagues. After missing the first quarter of the season, Eichel seemed to fly under the radar a little in some circles. This is somewhat surprising seeing that he posted 57 points 61 games while being the only skater in the league to post an average of more than four shots per game.

Entering his third season next year, the sky is the limit for Eichel, and with any kind of improvement in the supporting cast in Buffalo, we could see a top 10, or maybe even a top 5 fantasy performance from him. That kind of production is not found on many rookie deals, and especially not below market value. Due to the injury, you may be able to catch the Eichel owner in your league sleeping. At this point if you can buy him at anything less than the cost for a top 10 fantasy talent, then do so.

 

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Kris Letang (D) –  Pittsburgh Penguins

Cap Hit – $7,250,000

 

We all know that the other name that should be mentioned here is Kris Letang. Letang missed a large portion of this past season, as well as the playoffs, in what has become an expected part of any NHL season. At this point we know it’s unlikely to get more than 65 games out of Letang (especially since he may not be healthy to start the season), but in the games he does play, there aren’t many defencemen better, regardless of his contract. Buyer beware with this lottery ticket.

 

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Find me on twitter: @alexdmaclean

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Recent Capped articles:

The Ones Paying for First-Round Exits 

Playoff Performance and Future Contracts

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